Monsoon misses its date with TN

The Northeast monsoon is not expected to hit Tamil Nadu on its usual date of October 20, but the Met office isn't pressing the panic button.

According to S R Ramanan, Director, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, "The monsoon is not expected for the next 72 hours. We cannot yet say it is delayed… There is generally a standard deviation of seven days."

Environmentalist Jaishree from Care, an NGO, says that over the years there has been a slight shift in the setting of seasons, which needs to be studied. "It could be due to a variety of reasons; it is difficult to establish the exact cause. What is needed is an in depth research into the trend, as various studies have shown that one of the effects of climate change would be a shift in the seasons," she says. The impact of environmental conditions on seasons is poorly understood. There is no data to explain the cause of the erratic monsoon, she says.

S Raghavan, retired Deputy Director General of the Meteorology Department, points out that there have been cases of the monsoon setting in November or even as early as the first week of October. The Northeast monsoon can set in only when the Southwest monsoon withdraws completely, he says.

"Slight variations are on expected lines because of environmental degradation over the years," he says.

What is worrying is that there is absolutely no advance preparation by the government to tackle problems that could arise if the monsoon is delayed. The minimum the government could do ahead of the monsoon is to store water and recharge the groundwater aquifers, he suggested.

"I don't think greenhouse gas emissions are the only reason for the monsoon's erratic behaviour. Over the years, there has been a slight change here and there, but then climate conditions have always been unpredictable," he says.