The monsoon advanced to more parts of central Arabian Sea, Karnataka, entire Goa and parts of Konkan, India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday.
The persisting ‘low’ over northeast Bay of Bengal and an offshore trough to the peninsular west from south Konkan to Kerala set up the platform for the spectacular northward progress of seasonal rains.
Sustained northward propagating convection (cloud-building activity) was observed over the Arabian Sea, opening up later in fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls over Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
NORTHERN LIMIT
The northern limit of monsoon passed through Ratnagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok. Mumbai would be the next big port of call which models suggest would be covered in another three to five days.
The Chennai Met Centre said that the monsoon advanced into more parts of north interior Karnataka on Sunday. It has been active over Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep and at many places over interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka, at many places over interior Karnataka and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over coastal Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain is also likely to occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka.
MAHARASHTRA RAINS
Forecast by the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said rains could spread progressively to more parts of Maharashtra and Rayalaseema by June 12 even as fresh convection may break out over southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast.
A week, hence, the CPC saw a new wave of rains marching in from east and east-central Bay of Bengal and looking to enter east peninsular India. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) too has put out an almost similar outlook.
The NCEP persisted with its forecast for widespread rains for the west coast through June 14, with heavy falls forecast for the southern parts of Kerala.
Western Maharashtra could be bracing to share some of the spoils while the Vidarbha region, Telangana and the north Tamil Nadu may sit out. Renewed activity is signalled for the west coast, entire Bay of Bengal and most of the peninsula from June 15 to 23.
MONSOON FURY
According to a six-day outlook put out by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University, northern Kerala and adjoining coastal Karnataka would bear the brunt of monsoon fury.
Meanwhile, an IMD outlook saw pre-monsoon thundershowers breaking out over parts of madhya Maharashtra while being isolated over Marathawada during the next three to four days.
Isolated thundershowers have been forecast also for east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha.
Towards the north and northwest, a prevailing western disturbance is expected to cause rain or thundershowers at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Isolated thundershowers are likely over East Uttar Pradesh and isolated dust storm or thunderstorms accompanied with squall over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, north Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh.
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