India’s Monsoon May Make Early Onset, Aiding Planting Prospects

Original from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=awmgXqMEF_qQ&refer=india

By Pratik Parija and Vipin Nair

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- India's monsoon, forecast to be near normal this year, may arrive a week earlier than the normal June 1 date, boosting prospects for an early planting of crops such as rice, oilseeds and cotton.

The weather office doesn't foresee a delay in the onset of the June-to-September rainy season, D. Sivananda Pai, a director at India Meteorological Department, said today on a conference call organized by brokerage Edelweiss Securities Ltd.

India's 235 million farmers rely on the timing of the four- month season to decide which crops to grow. Their incomes are watched by makers of consumer goods and appliances. Companies such as ITC Ltd., India's biggest cigarette maker, and textile company DCM Ltd. are selling more in the villages than in urban areas, the Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said.

"A proper monsoon does improve market sentiment and help rural demand," said H.S. Goindi, head of marketing at TVS Motor Co., India's third-biggest motorcycle maker. "It is extremely important." Small towns and rural areas account for as much as 55 percent of the company's sales, he said.

Rains this season may be 96 percent of the 50-year average, the weather office said April 17. The central region may receive more showers than last year, while falls in the southern parts of the country may be the same as last year, Pai said. Areas in the north east and north west may get less rain than last year.

Adequate rainfall will help sustain the record 4.3 percent average growth in farm output Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has presided over since 2005, raising incomes among the 742 million Indians who live in the countryside. That may help the Congress party-led government, seeking re-election in polls that started on April 16, to counter the slowest growth since March 2003.

India, the world's second-biggest grower of rice and wheat, depends on the monsoon to water its farms as about 60 percent of the arable land isn't irrigated. Planting of most early winter- harvested crops, including rice, corn, lentils, soybeans, peanut and sugar cane, begins with the onset of the monsoon.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net; Vipin Nair in Mumbai at vnair12@bloomberg.net