Now (8:55 AM) the satellite pic shows a huge cloud mass has gathered around it's center. Still 07B is no way a Cyclone, just a Depression in the making.
Here is latest satellite pic ...
Take a look at this BBC- rainfall forecast for Sunday, surprisingly it shows heavy rainfall around North-Tamilnadu. And according to JTWC tracking, 07B will make a initial landfall around north-east srilanka and then crash into Tamilnadu.
JTWC tracking:
And summary from JTWC:
*************************************
REMARKS:050300Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 88.8E APPROXIMATELY
595 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
050030Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07B REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WILL MINIMIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 07B
AND KEEP ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SRI LANKA AFTER TAU 60 AND WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z
**************************************************
Almost all GFS models say that the present system will die out.
ReplyDeleteBBC rain forecast proved perfect during Nisha...let's what happens now.
ReplyDeleteExcuse me, BBC forecast was way off target during Nisha.
ReplyDeleteAccording to BBC, Nisha was suppose to strike Chennai, then they changed and went southward. I still think GFS model is most accurate. In almost every newspaper in Chennai it says it will rain sunday thru tuesday. For once I have been downplaying this forecast saying its wrong. I hope I am not wrong, otherwise people will have a fool out of me
No i wont agree wit tat bbc was spot on in predicting the rainfall during nisha landfall did vary anyways if this sys maintains then by bbc flooding possible in delta districts again although landfall ll vary and chennai ll get som rain
ReplyDeletei too agree with Weatherman and johnny BBC Weather were spot on chennai rain
ReplyDeleteGFS 2 days ago said this sysytem will die out
BBC weather says it will cross North Sri Lanka and affect Pamban coast in Tamilnadu
07B will prove wether BBC Weather is more advanced and reliable than other models
Latest jtwc track says landfall in india near karaikal same spot as of nisha as the movement is nw check it out guyz
ReplyDelete情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片,
ReplyDelete愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,
免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網,