Monsoon Watch-4 Published with Quantum Forecast...www.vagaries.in

May 20, 2018 at 06:44PM

May 19, 2018 at 12:58PM

#Chennai - Temperature is expected to go up by 1 or 2 C today and tomorrow as the winds become SW,W.
But a early Sea breeze onset can reduce the temperature surge at around 2 / 3pm. #iwm
Yesterday, Airport 38 C. Now it is 38 C ! pic.twitter.com/XiQfv0HyaF

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

May 19, 2018 at 12:47PM

Today, there's a good N-S trough at low-levels from East madhyapradesh dipping South to Central, S Andhra and touching N Tamilnadu.
Less T showers ahead for W-ghats of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu and mostly Low-level winds over South,central Peninsula. #iwm pic.twitter.com/j4xKJzJKoy

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

May 19, 2018 at 12:34PM

Both GFS and ECMWF models expect the Arabian sea system to intensify during next 3 days and drift North, while the SW Bay system may linger as a weak circulation and drift North as well !! #iwm pic.twitter.com/6WwR2sEjt7

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

May 19, 2018 at 12:11PM

The South Arabian sea circulation has formed due to rush of cross equatorial winds, even though its weak, it has prompted a circulation at low,mid-levels.
As of today, the South Indian Ocean HIGH is still weak, ill positioned, this is expected to become strong after 23-May #iwm pic.twitter.com/LNr83GnpLv

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

May 19, 2018 at 12:00PM

An "early" dumbbell like circulation has formed at mid-levels, one over SW Bay (which is weak now) and a better organized one over S Arabian sea. This is a pre-cursor to SW Monsoon onset. It's expected to get better organized in next 3 days ! #iwm pic.twitter.com/cYD9W7FRHw

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

South West Monsoon 2018 - Update #1 Parameters Check

Central,NW India heat LOW
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As of now, the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb over NW India and into Central Pakistan. This should be around 998mb at this time of year. An upper-level WD trough is expected to touch N Pakistan and Kashmir during next 7 days, so this can marginally affect the heating over North India.  This LOW is expected to deepen slightly to 998mb during next 8 days.

Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
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At present the HIGH pressure over South Indian Ocean is WEAK around 1020mb and models suggest that the HIGH is not expected to materialize to around 1030mb during next 7 days.
This is why only weak cross equatorial winds are reaching Somalia coast and almost nothing crossing into South Bay. 

SST
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The Sea surface temperature along Somali coast has not started dropping below 28 C, meaning, the Somali low-level Jet is not present. Once the cross equatorial winds pickup, the Somali coast should see a drastic drop in Sea surface temperature. 

Bay Low and Arabian sea Low

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The April month LOW over Bay has not materialized and it seems Bay is not in a mood to host one during next 10 days either. Instead, Arabian sea is expected to pop a LOW , circulation on 21-May.

Both, GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a Low over S-central Bay on 22-May and then intensifying into a Cyclone and moving NW.

This system will disturb the Bay Monsoon onset, as of now, it's not showing ANY sign of Monsoon onset over S,SE Bay and over South Islands of Andamans before 25-May.

LWD and North-South trough

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At present LWD seen along W-ghats from S-tip Tamilnadu to NW Karnataka and along NE Andhra to SW,W Bengal , this is creating Afternoon, evening Thunder showers (pre-monsoon showers).

The seasonal N-S trough at low-levels from Bihar to S,SE Tamilnadu along SE coast of India should be well marked at this time of year, but it's not. At present the N-S trough can be seen as a mini N-S trough from S Madhyapradesh to E,central Andhra. Around 22-May, this is expected to align to the expected position.

Forecast for June, July and August

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This is just for future reference purpose only !

JAMSTEC long range forecast indicates GOOD rainfall for SW,W coast of India during June, July and August.

And, CFS monthly forecast suggests the totally opposite. LESS, DEFICIENT rainfall during July, August for entire SW,W coast of India.

Let's see !!

Good MJO till 1st week of June

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A good MJO phase is now moving into Arabian sea and will be over entire North Indian ocean , Arabian sea and South Bay till 1st week of June.

This is good for Monsoon onset !

This may be a reason for upcoming Arabian sea circulation around 22nd May.

Monsoon onset over South Andamans and SE,S Bay may get delayed and pushed beyond 25th May.

Monsoon onset over South Kerala can be around 2/3-June.

May 10, 2018 at 10:07AM

May 07, 2018 at 02:33PM