Take a look at latest water vapor satellite imagery.. DRY seen over most of #India except S.India. "END of SW #Monsoon 2016" .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXaBz.jpg
Latest analysis also suggests the same "DRY has set in over most of India" and N,NW winds are prevailing ! .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXb1J.jpg
Analysis show that elongated circulation is seen from NNE Bay to Central Bay.
And
Ideally the expected SE-corner Arabian sea circulation is a best scenario for the winds in Bay to become East around this time of year, but, this time TS Sarika in W Pacific is and Will hinder the easterlies flow into SE Bay !
Now coming to TS Sarika in W Pacific .. this is the expected track till 17-Oct.
And
We can see that now and in 4 days the Winds will gush towards TS/Typhoon Sarika .
GFS model suggests that Easterlies will not push into SE Bay till 25-Oct.
N Tamilnadu, #Chennai may have Winter like condition from 18 to 24.
As of now, there's NO chance of North-East Monsoon till 24-Oct !
During next 2 / 3 days.