Shri Vasant Gowarikar Passes away....Famous for his reliable 16 parameter Monsoon Forecast Model.

RIP...shri Gowarikar model is and will remain the best....vagaries still follows and maintains faith in the 16 parameter model. The other 8 parameter model is not as accurate. You will notice a note in every MW -1 with this remark.
http://www.loksatta.com/…/veteran-scientist-vasant-gowarik…/


NEM Analysis from GSB coming tonite by 10 pm IST

Weekend forecast from vagaries at 10 pm IST

Vagaries

Weather Instagram at January 01, 2015 at 12:31PM

Madurai - 12:29pm, hot, humid and partly cloudy. No sign of rain. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at January 01, 2015 at 08:20AM

7:58am, heavy rain at 100km from Tiruchy. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at January 01, 2015 at 06:50AM

Near Thindivanam - 6:45am, mild new year day morning. Happy New Year! #weather

from Instagram

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2015

 

இனிய புத்தாண்டு நல்வாழ்த்துக்கள் 

Wishing you all a HAPPY & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR

95B has weakened to a Low pressure area and drift N-N-W, now pressure at 1006mb, located at 15.4N , 84.7E.. http://ow.ly/i/876JS 
95B has started to fizzle out now. It'll continue to drift North towards Odisha coast as Easterlies trough in 24hrs http://ow.ly/i/87752 

4:30pm, very less convective activity seen around 95B, cloudy with drizzle over Odisha, S Bengal, South N-E states http://ow.ly/i/8778p 
4:30pm, http://ow.ly/i/8778p ... cloudy with light,moderate rain over Madhyapradesh, N,central Maharastra.
T showers over S Tamilnadu.

Before evening of 1-Jan-2015... showers expected along N,central coast Odisha and into S Bengal !
Wet New year's eve, early hrs for N-W,N,W,central,S Maharastra into S,S-W Madhyapradesh... http://ow.ly/i/877g0 
New Year day T showers ...
for N,central,S Tamilnadu.
Some may creep into S,W suburbs of Chennai.

Upper-level W.D trough, low-level W.D circulation over N-E Arabian sea and interaction with easterlies will give rain, hails over Maharastra
Present upper-level W.D trough is seen dipping south upto 19N from N Pakistan. http://ow.ly/i/877LM 
It'll drift east and weaken in 48hrs
New Year day.. 
Moderate rain/hail over S-E Gujarat, N,W,central, S Maharastra, S,W,central Madhyapradesh, N,N-W Andhra, N,N-E Karnataka.

Weather Instagram at December 30, 2014 at 03:46PM

Bangalore - 3:42pm, Thunder clouds hovering over south Bangalore. #weather

from Instagram

95B - during past 12hrs has drifted North and intensified slightly.
Pressure 1003mb.
Location 12.3N, 83.3E.. http://ow.ly/i/86k1y 

95B - expected to drift N,N-N-E during next 24 to 48hrs without much intensification.
Weakening possibility is high http://ow.ly/i/86kde 

2pm, Visible shows that 95B has started to drift away from Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/86kj0 

Light rain possible for Chennai, N-coast Tamilnadu, S-coast Andhra during next 24hrs.
T showers for S,S-central, W-ghats Tamilnadu on today evening and on 31-Dec.
In the wake of 95B..
Scattered T showers expected to pop over Maharastra, Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Andhra on 1,2-Jan-2015.

RT @Serene_Meadows:  Snowfall likely in J&K, HP and Uttaranchal in first week of January. More cold weather ahead. http://t.co/roneA2Gw3k 

1:30pm, Dense FOG still seen over parts of S-W,central Punjab and central,w-central Uttarpradesh.. http://ow.ly/i/86jKp 

Today morning, most of N,N-W,N-central India recorded temps below 10 C.
Delhi-AP = 4 C
Udaipur = 3 C
Varanasi = 4 C (-5)

Due to foggy days, most places in N,N-central India recorded a low day temps as well..
Lucknow = 12C (-11)
Amristar = 12C (-7)

Day time cold temperature in Chennai and rainfall !!
Around 3pm, IWM Polichalur recorded a low temp of 21.3 C ... http://ow.ly/Gysdp 
Chennai - Polichalur zone got good steady rain from 4:30pm.
12:25am, during past 24hrs, IWM Polichalure has got 62.4mm of rainfall.

95B is now a Well Marked LOW with pressure around 1003/1004mb. It has drifted North and now at 10.2N , 83E ... http://ow.ly/i/85Xh0 
11pm, Heavy convective activity near center and over N,N-E,S-E quadrants of "95B"... http://ow.ly/i/85XpK 

In next 24hrs, the 95B is expected to drift North upto 13N and then drift N-N-E on 31-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/85XzA 
N-N-E movement of 95B is expected due to formation of mid,upper-level W.D trough from N Pakistan dipping South to 20N over N-E Arabian sea

Here's the upper-level chart showing the W.D trough (expected in next 18hrs)... http://ow.ly/i/85XT5 

On 31-Dec and 1-Jan-2015, the weakened circulation of 95B is expected to reach S Odisha coast... http://ow.ly/i/85Y15 
On 31-Dec, 1-Jan-2015, Heavy showers may push into central,N Odisha coast and into S coast Bengal, Kolkata ... http://ow.ly/i/85Y6T 
Is it going to be a rainy NEW YEAR eve and new year day for Bhubaneshwar and Kolkata ??
All depends on LOW 95B's movement today !

Today, moderate rain expected to persist over N coast Tamilnadu, Chennai and S coast Andhra.
HEAVY scattered T Showers expected over S,S-tip and W-ghats Tamilnadu on today and 31-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/85YpK