Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Nilofar !!



Cyclones are relatively infrequent in the Arabian Sea—just one or two per year—and severe cyclones are even rarer. For this reason, meteorologists and government officials in India, Pakistan, and Oman were anxiously watching Cyclone Nilofar in the last week of October 2014. The cyclone reached category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, but by the time of landfall in India on October 31, it was barely a tropical depression.
The images above and below were acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’sTerra satellite on October 28 (top), when the storm was approaching peak intensity, and on October 30 (below), when it had decayed to tropical storm force. A few hours after the first image was taken, Nilofar’s winds reached 115 knots (130 miles or 210 kilometers per hour). It was the third strongest cyclone on record for the Arabian Sea. By the time the second image was acquired, wind speeds had dropped to 50 knots (55 mph or 90 kmph).
Local authorities in the Indian state of Gujarat had started to evacuate residents from low-lying areas in advance of the storm. But as Nilofar moved north and east in the Arabian Sea, it was broken up by strong wind shear and further weakened by dry desert air blowing offshore. By October 31, the storm had faded to a low-pressure system that was expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall, rough surf, and windy weather to Gujarat.

Cold bite or simply northerly wind?

I would better prefer to say that this time it is post monsoon effect [which is generally referred to as NEM] rather than NEM.

Even though the  strength of Siberian High or Tibetan High are pronouncing they are over powered by winds from southern hemisphere.  However they may give a cold bites in coastal AP and North coastal TN in days to come.


Monday, November 03, 2014

Weather Instagram at November 03, 2014 at 06:42PM

Chennai - 4:43pm, a heavily covered day. Temp around 28 C. Photo of new Saravana stores, Chromepet. #weather


from Instagram

Today, a weak W.D system is affecting N,N-central Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.
A strong W.D system is expected to reach N,central Pakistan, N,N-W India on 6,7,8-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7rwvc 


Analysis show that circulation persists over S-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/7rn45 
In next 2 days, present Bay circulation is expected to become elongated over central Bay from NN-E to SS-W .. http://ow.ly/i/7rtxu 

If the present S-central Bay circulation drifts North then moisture over Tamilnadu will go dry from Wednesday.
For next 24hrs, Scattered T showers expected only for S,S-W Tamilnadu and Isolated along S-E,central Coast Tamilnadu.
For Chennai, Almost NO rain expected during next 2 days !

5:30pm, Heavy showers continue along most of Kerala coast, S, S-tip Tamilnadu from morning... http://ow.ly/i/7rv8r 
Nagercoil - 6pm, Steady moderate rain from noon !

Sunday, November 02, 2014

Typhoon Nuri intensifies into "Super Typhoon"


The new Low in the Bay, BB-20, scheduled to form on 3rd November as mentioned in Vagaries and likely around the same predicted spot..West of The Andaman Islands.

Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula. 

Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said theat the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.

City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.

Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.
Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....
Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better  at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.

N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday. 
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)
Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning. 

from vagaries

How South Bay will shape up in next 3/4 days ??


An E-W elongated circulation is seen covering over S-W to S-E Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/7qWsO 
During next 36hrs, the circulation over S-W-central Bay is expected to persist with a elongated nature.. http://ow.ly/i/7qWzI 

Now we have 2 scenarios forecast for 2 models...
GFS expects a Depression to form over E Bay on 5-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7qWBc 
If GFS model comes out true, then the RAIN over Tamilnadu will vanish from Tuesday !!

NAVGEM model suggests the same like GFS for mid-week ... the present elongated circulation to tilt from N-E to S-W from E-Bay to S-W Bay.
After that NAVGEM suggests a depression to take shape over S-W-central Bay itself on 6-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7qWIz 

ECMWF model like GFS... suggests a E Bay depression on Thursday ... http://ow.ly/i/7qWOU 
CMC / GEM and WRF model is going with NAVGEM model ... suggests a Depression along 10N over S-W-central Bay, 4/5-Nov http://ow.ly/i/7qWRj 

During next 36hrs...

HEAVY T showers for S,S-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S,central Kerala.
For N,central,S-E coast Tamilnadu, Chennai ...

Moderate showers expected on today midnight into morning of Monday.. http://ow.ly/i/7qWZr 
From Monday evening, less showers expected for N,central coast Tamilnadu and Chennai.

We'll monitor S-W-central Bay on 3,4-Nov.

Weather Instagram at November 02, 2014 at 10:50AM

#chennai - 10:49am, light rain now over Polichalur zone. Moderate rain inside city. #weather


from Instagram

Saturday, November 01, 2014

Weather Instagram at November 01, 2014 at 06:54PM

#chennai - 4:42pm, Thiruvanmiyur beach cloudy with light drizzle around. #weather


from Instagram