SWM JULY PATTERN ENACTED

 Again SWM is thrashing.  
all over SIK, Kerala and TN.

TAMIL NADU tomorrow [19.08.2014] will be getting FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD RAINFALL.  
As told by SW Premkumar, the retired Meteorologist, this AUGUST can be equated to  JULY month of  SWM period normal.

Today, the mid-level circulation over S-central Bay has come closer to Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/6AFJH 
At mid-level an induced fresh circulation seen over Kerala, W,S-W Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/6AFQj 

Present, upper-level circulation over S-W Bay is expected to drift west into central,N Tamilnadu coast in next 36hrs http://ow.ly/i/6AG4e 
WRF model says, This upper-level circulation is expected to persist over N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu 19,20-Aug.. http://ow.ly/i/6AGcH 
After this present circulation... According to GFS, an upper-level circulation may persist along S,S-W,W Karnataka even till 24-Aug !!

North Bay is expected to be calm during next 5 days !!
At present a N-S low-level trough is seen from Bihar to down south upto S-central Bay... this is expected to drift West into Peninsula !
In next 42hrs, the N-S low-level trough will be from N Chatisgarh to dip South upto S tip of Tamilnadu "like May end" http://ow.ly/i/6AGJP 

7:30pm, Scattered T showers over N,central,S Karnataka, S Maharastra, W,central Andhra and over many zones of E-India http://ow.ly/i/6AGYD 
7:30pm, HEAVY rain over W,central Tamilnadu and over coast, W-ghats Kerala... http://ow.ly/i/6AGYD

ஆடிப்பெருக்கு

காவேரி நதி தீரம் [தலைமடை]பாகமண்டலாவில் இருந்து [கடைமடை]காரைக்கால் வரையிலும், அணையே இல்லாத போது, தென் மேற்குபருவகாற்று மலையில் மழையாக பெய்யும்போது நீர் பெருக்கு எடுத்தோடி வெள்ளமாய், காவிரியில் வரும் ஆடி 18டாம்  நாளே ஆடி பெருக்கு. 
அக்காலங்களில் நீர்விளையாட்டு மிகவும் பேர்போனது. இவ்வாறான ஒரு நிலையில் ஆட்டன்அத்தி என்னும் நீர்விளையாட்டு வீரனை கரிகால் பெருவளத்தான் மகள் ஆதிமந்தி காதலித்தாள். காவிரியாற்றில் கழார் என்னும் ஊரிலிருந்த நீர்த்துறையில் ஆட்டனத்தி  நீச்சல் நடனம் ஆடினான். இந்த நீச்சல் நடனம் கரிகாலன் முன்னிலையில் நடந்தது. காவிரி என்பவள் 'தாழிருங் கதுப்பு' கொண்டவள். ஆற்றுவெள்ளம் காவிரியை ஈர்த்தபோது அவள் ஆட்டனத்தியைப் பிடித்துக்கொண்டாள். வெள்ளம் இருவரையும் அடித்துச் சென்றுவிட்டது. காவிரி ஆற்றுவெள்ளத்தில் மாண்டுபோனாள். நீச்சல் நடனம் நடந்த வெள்ளப்பெருக்கு விழாவை இக்கால விழா ஆடிப்பெருக்கு எனக் கொள்ளுதல் பொருத்தமானது.
தலைவனை வெள்ளம் அடித்து சென்றதால், புது மண தம்பதியர் தாலியை பிரித்து கட்டும் வழக்கம் நிலவிற்று என்பர்.

RT @Arvind_LFC: @weatherofindia clouds over Western ghats after 1hour rain at Elumalai,Madurai district http://t.co/pYunl4JDyO (17-Aug, 6pm)

RT @mohandas_s: @weatherofindia  heavy rain lashes in Thammmpatty@salem dist.tamilnadu  (18-AUg, 12:25am)

Another active phase of SWM

 Watch the cross equatorial flow and its strength. 

This may lead to another active phase of SWM

As reported from a SHIP

(13.60N 59.90E)

Wind speed at 12 UTC 16 Aug 2014 was
34 knots or 18 m/s from 230 degrees or SW

The South Indian Ocean high pressure system is in vantage position. 
 Again a chance for active Rf over west coast below 13 DEgree N and above 09 Deg North.
  
Delta districts in TamilNadu may get heavy rainfall

Today, low,mid-level circulation persist over Bihar and its trough dipping south upto S-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKpD 
A weak mid-level circulation seen over S-central Bay and a weak upper-level circulation over S-S-W Bay... http://ow.ly/i/6zKqz 
A weak upper-level circulation also seen over N Bay along S Bangladesh coast .. expected to drift into S Bengal in 18hrs and vanish !

The mid,upper-level circulation over S-central Bay is expected to become well marked in 24hrs and drift West towards N Tamilnadu coast.
On 18-Aug, mid-level circulation is expected to cross N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai... http://ow.ly/i/6zKxD 
Meanwhile, upper-level circulation is expected to drift into central Tamilnadu coast on 18-Aug ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKAi 
The upper-level circulation is then expected to pop into Arabian sea along N,central Kerala coast on 19/20-Aug.

Moderate / Heavy scattered rainfall ahead for N-W,N,N-E,N-central-coast Tamilnadu, S Karnataka, and S Andhra during next 2 days !
#Chennai - evening, late-evening showers expected on today and Sunday as well !

Heavy scattered rain to continue over Bihar, N,central Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha on today and Sunday ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKIm 
Widespread HEAVY rain for N,central zones of N-E states of India to continue during next 2 days!
Along W,S-W coast of India.. scattered rain expected only along S Maharastra coast and Karnataka coast during next 2 days.
Scattered rain expected over S,S-E,E Rajasthan and over parts of N-W,W,central,S Madhyapradesh in next 36hrs.

Chennai - 5:50am, light/ moderate rain has pushed into parts of N,NW city, suburbs.
Long drizzle ahead for most of the city this morning.

#Chennai - Check out the accumulated rainfall RADAR plot till 8:30am today...

Lots of rain around City ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKm0

Weather Instagram at August 15, 2014 at 06:24AM

#chennai - 5:57am, mild morning. #happy #independence day. #India . #weather

from Instagram

Thiruvarur - 4:35pm, "Heavy T shower with high winds" ... http://ow.ly/i/6yrnd

 #Chennai - 5:45pm, Moderate rain seen over N,N-W from city at around 40km.

Heavy rain over East India, A circulation expected over S-central Bay !

Today as well the circulation persists over East Nepal, N Bihar ... http://ow.ly/i/6yjzv 
The monsoon axis is expected to be along Himalayan foothills upto Northern zones of N-E states during next 2 days !

A low,mid-level trough is expected to drop from N,central Bihar to down south upto S-central Bay from 15/16-Aug ... http://ow.ly/i/6yjHO 
On tomorrow, a mid,upper-level circulation is expected over S-central Bay ... and expected to drift W-N-W ... http://ow.ly/i/6yjKe 
The upcoming low,mid,upper-level circulation from S-central Bay is expected to cross along central,N-coast Tamilnadu and S Andhra on 18-Aug
If this prediction is true, then widespread HEAVY rain ahead for Kerala, Tamilnadu, S Karnataka and S,central Andhra from 15 to 20-Aug.

Meanwhile, an upper-level circulation is expected over E,central Rajasthan on 15-Aug... and expected to drift E-N-E. http://ow.ly/i/6yjSM 

Rainfall alert :
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Next 2 days, Heavy widespread rain to persist along himalayan foothills, Nepal, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Sikkim, N Bengal, North of N-E states 
Widespread rain expected over Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, E,S,central Uttarpradesh during next 36hrs.!
Today, scattered heavy rain for Chatisgarh, Odisha as well !

1:30pm, HEAVY rain over most of E India ... http://ow.ly/i/6ykjd 

Today after 3pm, T showers expected over S Karnataka, #Bangalore , N-W,N,N-E,central,N-central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai.