Posted Sunday Night:

Major Developments:

Monday: The current UAC over Odisha (on Sunday) is expected to track Westwards . The upper air trough subsequently formed, will guide the UAC westwards, and as it tracks west, it may form a Line of Wind discontinuity within the trough on Monday 21st. IF this materialises, then very heavy rains can be expected in Eastern/Central MP...roughly covering the regions around Jabalpur and Bhopal.
Anyway, good precipitation is expected on Monday in Central MP and parts of adjoining Vidharbh.

Tuesday: The system tracks westwards towards West MP/Gujarat and SE Rajasthan.
Would expect heavy rains in Central MP and Bhopal and Ujjain regions. North Maharshtra sees an increase in rains.
Wednesday, we can most likely get rains in Northern Gujarat region and parts of Kutch. Saurashtra gets some showers along with Coastal South Gujarat.
Increase in rains along Konkan and Goa from Tuesday night.
Adjoining parts of SE Sindh becomes cloudy with some patches getting thunder showers.

The Eastern areas of the system gradually reducing in precipitation.

Mumbai gets some on/off showers on Monday. Tuesday evening rains increasing and Wednesday getting intermittent heavy showers. again, 30-40 mms on Tuesday night/Wednesday. 75 mms in 2 days .
Delhi NCR will have to wait till Thursday for major meaningfull rains to restart. Days may rise to 35c...next 2 days.
Couple of showers for Kolkata and rain generally decreasing.
Rains increasing again in Surat from Tuesday night.
Southern Peninsula (Bangalore) sees no major change next 3 days...maybe getting drier.

Pakistan: Sibbi was 44c on Sunday...so Balochstan and parts of Sindh still hot.
After Monday 21st, till Wednesay, Parts of SE Sindh will be cloudy and in some patches thunder showers can be expected on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
from vagaries
Upper Punjab region of Pakistan adjoining Kashmir region may get isolated rains in some pockets .

During next 24hrs, HEAVY widespread rain expected for central, N,N-E,E Gujarat, Ahmedabad ... http://ow.ly/i/6gYRX 
Tomorrow, HEAVY widespread rain expected for central,N,W,N-W,E Uttarpradesh and more heavy rain for Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/6gZ55 
Tomorrow as well, scattered rain expected over central,W,S,N Bengal.
In next 36hrs, HEAVY rain also expected over E Madhyapradesh, N,central Chatisgarh !
Widespread rain to continue along Karnataka coast, Maharastra coast, N,central Kerala.
Due to N Bay activity... Odisha to get more scattered rain in next 36hrs.
Next Bay circulation expected to pop on Sunday!
More rain ahead for S,S-E Rajasthan in next 24hrs.

Weather Instagram at July 18, 2014 at 04:34PM

#chennai - 4pm, a hot day so far. Showers seen NW from city at 70km into Andhra. #weather

from Instagram

#Chennai - moderate rain possible after 6pm. 30% chance of rain today.

Badlapur Heavy Rain Video of 17th & 18th July 2014.

Badlapur - 4:15pm, "Now it is cloudy with intermittent heavy spell. Current temp 27c with 64mm rain till 2.30pm"

Today, the low,mid-level circulation is seen over N Madhyapradesh, S-W Uttarpradesh and Delhi ... http://ow.ly/i/6gMi9 
Mid-level trough from near #Delhi circulation is seen S-W upto S-W Gujarat ... http://ow.ly/i/6gMlh 

N Bay is getting ready to host another circulation on Sunday, 20-Jul ... http://ow.ly/i/6gMnC 
Present N Madhyapradesh circulation is expected to fizzle out in next 24hrs !

12:30pm, HEAVY rain over S,S-W, central Gujarat, E Rajasthan, most of S,central,W Uttarpradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/6gMsG 
12:30pm, N Bay is active again... showers seen into S,central Odisha, N-E Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/6gMsG
12:30pm, Showers continue over Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/6gMsG

Typical JUNE SWM pattern

 [1] Tilly Tallying Mascarene High near Madagascar / Mauritius.

[2] Another SWM activity along Kerala / Karnataka coast  [As inferred by Shri SWP, [Rtd]Meteorologist]

[3] A typical JUNE pattern as the fag end of JUNE 2014 witnessed pre monsoon TS, hail storm, dust storm and invisible and short lived rotating air column from surface to cloud base.[i.e A TORNADO like powerful whirlwind in Chennai on 28.6.2014 and hail storm on 29 & 30 June 2014] As inferred by Shri SWP, (Rtd)Meteorologist]

As inferred by Shri SWP, [Rtd]Meteorologist]
[3a] Thunderstorm activity is not uncommon one during pre monsoon period in Chennai.

[3b] Rare or occasional HAIL storm  has also been documented in Chennai during May month. 

[3c] As this type climatology prevailed over Chennai during June, July is considered as June
[according to SWP]

VETERAN may enlighten me.

Weather Instagram at July 17, 2014 at 07:12PM

#chennai - 7:11pm, another warm evening, no sign of rain. #weather

from Instagram

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 2.55pm, Formation of dark clouds at SW horizon...hoping for rain...sky pic http://ow.ly/i/6g3HY 

#Chennai - 3:45pm, HOT at 37 C (feels like 41 C) and Windy at times from S-W. NO sign of rain.
15% chance of light rain for W,S-W suburbs

Today, the circulation is seen over N,N-N-E Madhyapradesh and S Uttarpradesh.
Another over S Gujarat ... http://ow.ly/i/6g5Yc 
3:30pm, HEAVY rain over N,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-E Uttarpradesh, E,S-E Rajasthan, W,S-W,central Gujarat ... http://ow.ly/i/6g612 
3:30pm, Heavy rain also over N Chatisgarh, N Jharkhand, S,S-E Bihar, S,central Bengal, N-E,central,coast Odisha.. http://ow.ly/i/6g612

Weather Instagram at July 16, 2014 at 07:31PM

#chennai - 6:40pm, a warm evening, partly cloudy, no sign of rain. Rain seen over S Andhra, 70km N from city. #weather

from Instagram

Today, the low-level circulation is over E,central Madhyapradesh ... ow.ly/i/6fmbp
5pm, Due to Madhyapradesh circulation... HEAVY rain seen over most of Madhyapradesh, S,S-E,E Rajasthan, N Chatisgarh http://ow.ly/i/6fnVj 
5pm, Heavy rain over Jharkhand, W,Central Bengal, S,S-W Gujarat and scattered over coastal Maharastra http://ow.ly/i/6fnVj

The mid-level circulation along S-W Gujarat coast persists and expected to push N-E into Gujarat in next 42hrs... http://ow.ly/i/6fo3g 
Present ACTIVE west coast offshore trough is expected to be active all along coast during next 2 days ! http://ow.ly/i/6fr3Y 
For 2 days, Present upper-level circulation near S Gujarat coast is expected to drift N-E, persist along S-E Gujarat http://ow.ly/i/6frcx 

Meanwhile, Madhyapradesh circulation is expected to drift North and settle over central Uttarpradesh on Friday.. http://ow.ly/i/6fqHq 
Low,mid-level circulation of present Madhyapradesh circulation is expected to persist over central UP till 20-Jul http://ow.ly/i/6fqXz 

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
During next 12hrs...
HEAVY rain to persist over S,S-E,E Rajasthan, scattered over N,N-W,N-E,central Madhyapradesh into N Chatisgarh, E UP.
Tomorrow, most of Gujarat especially S,S-E,S-W coast is expected to get HEAVY rain ... http://ow.ly/i/6frIG 

Scattered heavy rain to persist all along Karnataka coast during next 42 hrs !
Widespread HEAVY rain to persist ALL along Maharastra coast and #Mumbai till night of 17-Jul !
Tomorrow as well, scattered rain to persist over Jharkhand, Bihar, S,W,central Bengal ! http://ow.ly/i/6frVg 
Tomorrow noon,evening scattered heavy rain expected to push into S,central Uttarpradesh.
17-Jul - Scattered rain also forecast for S,central Chatisgarh, E,N,N-E Maharastra, Odisha and over N,N-E Andhra.
For Kerala - S,central Kerala to get scattered moderate rain, while North zone is in for some heavy rain !