7:30pm, scattered rain over E-central India and over N,central, S Peninsula ... http://ow.ly/i/634BI
#Chennai - 8pm, Heavy T showers seen S-W of Chengelpet, around 90km from chennai city... http://ow.ly/i/634JW
Friday, June 27, 2014
Weather Instagram at June 27, 2014 at 04:14PM
#chennai - 4:12pm, W, N-W, W having some light showers. Photo taken facing West. #weather
Why is the IMD feeding the media outright spin regarding rainfall deficiency?
Speculation of the monsoon performance has become the central focus of our economy so much our Prime Minister is reported to monitor reports almost real time. So why is it so central? According to industry body Assocham, a 1 per cent deficit in rains could hurt India's economic growth by 0.35 per cent. Assuming a 20% deficiency, our GDP will no doubt be deeply in the red, given that last year GDP was within the sub 4 range.
El Nino and the coupling between Nino SSTs and SOI
Though the lack of coupling between the Nino SSTs and atmosphere (SOI) one of the principal reasons why the current El Nino struggles to emerge seems resolved as of now, WMO offers a caveat that it may rebound into positive territory by next week as Jose Bastardi, WeatherBell tweet informs:“WMO site EC indicates after SOI back and forth next 7 days, major burst of anti nino positive develops late next week”
El Nino Modoki crosses threshold and its emergence now irreversible
Daily values for Nino Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and SOI have crossed Nino threshold though their 30 day mean values may still show a lag. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which till very recently reflected La Nina values have now flipped into El Nino mode.According to the Australian Met yesterday daily SOI was a whopping (-) 20.6. It is now clear that we are not having a canonical El Nino, but a Modoki (pseudo El Nino), Type II variety wich would be very devastating for the Indian monsoon. To accentuate the problem, both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) have turned adverse for rainfall, compounding the adverse effect of the Modoki.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
4:30pm, lots of T showers seen over East, E-central India and light showers over central,N-E Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/628MC
4:30pm, More heavy rain over S,central zones of N-E #India ... http://ow.ly/i/628MC
#Chennai - 5:15pm, mini showers seen over W-N-W.N-W from city at around 40 to 100km.
Another N Bay circulation ... more rain ahead for E,S-E,N-E India
A low,mid,upper level circulation is seen over N Bay ... Upper circulation is slightly tilted to S,S-W ... http://ow.ly/i/61YNC
10:30am, The N Bay circulation has created lots of convective activity over N,N-W Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/61YVs
10:30am, Rest of India is clear, especially the W,S-W coast of India is again having a DRY day ... http://ow.ly/i/61YVs
GFS expects the circulation to push N-W into S Bengal, N-E Odisha coast in another 24hrs and persist there for 2 days! http://ow.ly/i/61Z0Z
The upper-level circulation is expected to drift into Odisha coast on 27-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/61Z3a
Rainfall alert for next 36hrs ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
During next 12hrs,
Moderate / Heavy scattered rain for S,central Bengal, Jharkhand and over most of Odisha ... http://ow.ly/i/61Z71
During next 12hrs,
Some T showers will pop over N-E Andhra and into S Chatisgarh.
Isolated over S Karnataka, S,central Andhra, N Tamilnadu.
On 27-Jun, more widespread rain ahead for S,central Bengal, Jharkhand and heavy over Odisha... http://ow.ly/i/61Zbg
On 27-Jun, scattered T showers expected over S,S-E Karnataka, S,central,N-E Andhra, N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu.
Scattered T showers will also push into S Chatisgarh on 27-Jun !
#Chennai - can expect a T shower on tomorrow evening !
Today there's a 15% chance of rain for S-W,W suburbs !
N-E states of India will continue to get scattered Heavy rain during next 2 days !!
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