Japanese Met predicts double whammy for Indian Monsoon: India faces devastating drought

The Japanese climate agency, JAMSTEC model predictions, if they actualize doesn’t augur too well at all for the Indian monsoon. They predict a double whammy – a combined El Nino-Indian Ocean Dipole adverse effect. If so, we may end up facing a seasonal rainfall deficiency at least within 20-30% range, if not more. Our current rainfall deficiency stands at over 45% and the month of June may end with 50% plus deficiency. If JAMSTEC is right, then July-Sept may fare no better.

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/06/japanese-met-predicts-double-whammy-for.html

It is very rare to observe "almost NO moisture" at mid-levels along W,S-W coast at this time of year ... http://ow.ly/i/5ZInq 

2:30pm, Almost NO rain seen along W,S-W coast, except for some rain along N-central Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/5ZIyF 
2:30pm, In fact MOST of India is having very less rain activity or NO rain.. http://ow.ly/i/5ZIyF
ODD satellite image in 2nd half of June!

West coast offshore trough is weak except along S,central Karnataka coast , N Kerala coast.. and there's less sign of revival in next 3 days
Latest GFS model suggests a even bad picture!!
Almost NO revival expected along S-W,W coast even till 29-Jun !

Weather Instagram at June 23, 2014 at 01:58PM

#chennai - 1:45pm, warm with thin high cloud cover. Less rain possible if this continues. #weather

from Instagram

Today, the upper-level W.D trough is seen upto N-W India (N,N-W Rajasthan) ... http://ow.ly/i/5Zk02 
During next 42 hrs, this W.D trough will drift East and can drop South upto E Rajasthan, W,N-W Madhyapradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/5Zk1Z 

Due to this W.D, scattered rain expected over Haryana, Punjab, N,N-E Rajasthan, Himachal, Uttarakhand, W,central UP http://ow.ly/i/5Zk48 
S,central Kashmir is expected to get more rain during next 2 days!
During next 2 days, some T showers expected over N,N-E Madhyapradesh.
And T showers also expected over central, E Uttarpradesh as well.

#Chennai - 3:40pm, Mini showers are popping over W,N-W at around 30 to 60km from city.
These showers will pass across city and suburbs.

#Chennai - yesterday, max temp touched 39.2 C.
Rainfall...
Nungambakkam = 2.8mm
Airport = 10.4mm
IWM Polichalur = 6.3mm

2:30pm, Showers seen along Karnataka coast and MOST of West, S-W coast is dry ... http://ow.ly/i/5Zjn7 
2:30pm, Most of Bengal is cloudy with some showers around ... http://ow.ly/i/5Zjn7

Latest GFS expects that entire W,S-W coast is in for very LESS rain during next 3 or 4 days (till 26-Jun).

In the East.
Today, the mid,upper-level circulation is seen over N-central Bengal and Bangladesh ... http://ow.ly/i/5ZjqM 
This circulation is expected to weaken and drift into N-central zone of N-E states of India in next 42hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/5ZjsU 
Widespread rain expected to persist over N Bengal, Sikkim and over N,central zones of N-E states during next 2 days.
S,central Bengal, S Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha is in for less rain from tomorrow till 24-Jun !

Weather Instagram at June 22, 2014 at 02:20PM

#chennai - 2:15pm, a hazy and humid day. Again showers expected after 5pm. #weather

from Instagram

#Chennai - 7:14pm, Light shower now over polichalur zone

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#Chennai - 8:20pm, more showers expected to push into W,S-W suburbs in next 30 min.
So far IWM Polichalur station has recorded 2.1mm

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#Chennai - 9pm, sharp showers now again over Polichalur zone.

RT @naveenkumars84: Travelling from Chennai to Arni its raining across the highway not heavily but decent rain cc @weatherofindia 8:55pm

Weather Instagram at June 21, 2014 at 10:58AM

#chennai - 10:57am, not hot as previous days. #weather

from Instagram

An upper-level W.D trough with a circulation embedded over South Pakistan is expected on 21-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/5YpQO 
And this upper-level W.D circulation is expected to drift into S-W Rajasthan on Sunday !

Due to this showers expected over Kashmir, Punjab, N,N-E Rajasthan, #Delhi from Saturday noon into mid next week ... http://ow.ly/i/5Yq2S