92B - Weakened to a LOW and drifted N-N-W

Latest analysis of yesterday's depression 92B reveals that it has weakened to a Well marked LOW and has slightly drifted in N-N-W direction during past 24hrs.
Now the pressure is around 1002mb.
At present the circulation persists from low to mid-levels and a weak one in upper(500hpa) levels tiled in S-W direction.

3:30pm, Satellite IR shows heavy convective activity over Central Bay... this is due to the mid,upper level circulation of 92B lies tilted in S-W direction over central Bay.

GFS model suggests that this circulation will persist for next 72hrs and drift West or W-N-W and come close to Odisha coast on Sunday, 25-May.

But WRF model expects 92B to deepen again and move in N-W direction and make landfall along South Bengal coast as Deep Depression on Sunday !

JTWC at 1pm has cancelled the Cyclone formation alert for 92B.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND CONSIDERING 
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO MEDIUM

Today, the inland North-South trough is seen from a low-level circulation over S-E Uttarpradesh, N-E Madhyapradesh and dipping south upto N-E,N-central Tamilnadu all along S-E coast of India.
This is why HOT DRY winds coming from N-W over Chennai and most of S,S-central Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu.
If 92B drifts West near to Odisha coast in next 48hrs, this N-S trough will slightly drift West and the inland circulation will be over Madhyapradesh on Sunday.

Rainfall alert ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~

Today, before midnight - scattered T showers expected for W-ghats Kerala, N,N-E,N-W,N-central Tamilnadu.
Some early morning rain may push into coast of S tip Tamilnadu.
Tomorrow - T showers again for S,central Kerala, W-ghats Kerala and into N-W,N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu

Monsoon update ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Monsoon current continues to be strong all over Andaman Islands and the cross equatorial flow from Somali coast to South Srilanka is strong below the 5th parallel.

A low-level circulation is expected to pop over S Arabian sea on 26-May, this can act as a engine to drive Monsoon into S,central Kerala.

Hot story from India !

Temperature forecast for #India ..
this how its going to be during next 3 days.. check this chart ... http://ow.ly/i/5Fd7L 

Some of the stations in N-W India has started recording above 30 C as night temperature ... Bikaner = 30.9 C
Jaipur = 30.3 C

Super #hot 40s of 22-May...
Bikaner = 43.5 C
Agra = 42.9 C
Jaisalmer = 44.1C
Barmer = 44.8 C
Ahmedabad = 43C
Bankura = 44.3C
Nagpur = 44.2 C

... Jharsuguda = 43.7 C
Gulbarga = 41.2 C
Rentachintala = 45 C
Machilipatnam = 43.8 C
Ongole = 44 C (night temp = 32.4 C)

#HOT at 2:30pm today...
Nagpur Airport shows 47 C
Lucknow = 44 C
Hyderabad, Delhi, Varanasi = 43 C
Jaipur, Chennai, Patna, Jamshedpur = 42 C

#Chennai - Dry and #HOT above 40 C temperature to continue till Sunday !
Less T showers expected over most of Tamilnadu on today, tomorrow.
Isolated T showers expected over N,N-E,N-W,N-central zones.

Weather Instagram at May 23, 2014 at 02:20PM

#chennai - 2:15pm, #hot ... Hottest day of #2014 . feels 47C. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at May 23, 2014 at 12:10PM

#chennai - 11:45am, hot now and expected to touch 42 C again. #weather

from Instagram

DRY HOT WEATHER

To day [22.05.2014 /1730 hrs IST]  Chennai reported a dew point of about 17.6 Deg Celsius. Dew point is the MEASURE related to the amount of moisture present in the air at the given temperature where as Relative Humidity is related to how close the air and moisture are at the given temperature to become saturated. LOW Dew Point is lesser moisture.  So today is DRY & HOT weather.

பனிதுளி உருவாகும் வெப்ப நிலைக்கும் [DEW POINT] ஈரப்பதத்திற்கும் [RELATIVE HUMIDITY] நிறைய வேறுபாடு உண்டு. பனித்துளியாக உருவெடுக்கும் வெப்ப நிலை என்பது எந்த ஒரு குறிப்பிட்ட வெப்ப நிலையிலும் காற்று ஏற்று  இருக்கும் நீராவியினை பொருத்து அமையும். வறண்ட அனல் காற்றில் பனி துளி உருவாகும் வெப்ப நிலை குறைவாக இருக்கும். இன்று வீசியது வறண்ட அனல் காற்று ஆகும்.  

There is a formation of cloud mass just towards EAST of Chennai(otherwise a LOPAR ).  It drew DRY [Northerly] to NWly winds from landmass and the temperature shoot to 40 Degree Celsius. The dry hot [radiative] weather is felt today.  However in the evening winds backed to westerly to SWly , to align as outer band for the LOPAR and convective clouds formed.  It may give rain

Vellore rain !

Vellore - 3:55pm, Raining atlast !!


Vellore - 6:10pm, More moderate rain !



6:33pm, Heavy rain startd #nexus5 #vellore

Weather Instagram at May 22, 2014 at 03:17PM

#chennai - 3:10pm, hottest day 42C. Now signs of rain over west. #weather

from Instagram

#Chennai - 1:15pm, #HOT at 40 C and feels like 46 C !!

#Chennai - 2:05pm, NO sea breeze yet !

92B - Depression and drifted North.

Analysis at 1pm, suggest that Depression 92B has slightly drifted North into N-E Bay and near to Myanmar coast during past 24hrs. 
No intensification observed, but the mid,upper-level circulation of the system has become elongated from N-N-E to S-S-W. Only the low-level circulation is concentrated at the moment.

Thai met observes that Present pressure at the core is around 996mb (equivalent to Deep depression / Cyclone), but US NAVY puts it around 1000mb.

JTWC warning at 1pm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 
91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH 
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. A 220336Z AMSU-B 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOPPY STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED 
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. AN OLDER 220021Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION 
IN THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAIN-FLAGGED AND 
NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA 
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING SLIGHTLY 
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

12:30pm, Satellite reveals, strong convective activity only along its South quadrant and near to centre.
Rest of #India is clear and #hot.

Today over inland, the low-level N-S trough from N Bengal has drifted East and now along S-E coast of India upto N Tamilnadu.
The S-S-E Arabian sea circulation also persists and will weaken in next 2 days.

Models did not expect 92B to become as a Cyclone, but expects the Depression to drift N-N-W in 24hrs and then West towards Odisha coast on 24/25-May.
If 92B drifts towards Odisha coast, the inland N-S trough will drift West on 24-May.

Rainfall alert ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

During next 18hrs, T showers again expected over W,S,S-W Karnataka, most of W-ghats Kerala into N,N-W,W,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu.
Tomorrow, noon, evening - more T showers expected over W-ghats Kerala and into N,N-E,N-W,central Tamilnadu.
During early hrs and into morning showers possible along S Kerala coast and along coast of S tip Tamilnadu.

Chennai - Today, 23-May - T cells will show up along W,S-W suburbs ... isolated chance of rain pushing into city. Till 2pm, HOT day with dry winds from W-N-W is expected on 22,23-May.

A good article on "DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MONSOON AND PRE-MONSOON RAIN" ... http://ow.ly/x84jr