HELEN
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Helen now close to coast
A W.D system is expected to affect Kashmir, N Punjab on 23-Nov.
As of now, Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu (except for S tip Tamilnadu) during next 2 days !
5:30pm, A LOW is slowly drifting into S-E corner of Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3Nbry
T showers expected to continue over S,central Kerala, W,S-W W-ghats of Tamilnadu and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.
#COLD conditions over N,N-W,N-central,W,central, East #India to continue during next 2 nights.
As of now, Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu (except for S tip Tamilnadu) during next 2 days !
5:30pm, A LOW is slowly drifting into S-E corner of Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3Nbry
T showers expected to continue over S,central Kerala, W,S-W W-ghats of Tamilnadu and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.
#COLD conditions over N,N-W,N-central,W,central, East #India to continue during next 2 nights.
Helen - Heavy rain along N-central Andhra coast, No weakening seen yet, 190km S-S-E of Kakinada
At 5:30pm, Cyclone HELEN has not shown any weakness, it has drifted to West now.
Pressure around 978 mb
Winds reaching to 135 kmph.
Latest RADAR shows, Rain have pushed into N-central,central Andhra coast.
6:40pm, Now it is around 195 km from Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
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Satellite IR at 6pm, shows major Cloud mass has started to push into Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
JTWC, NAVGEM expects the system to drift W-S-W in next 12hrs and make landfall near Machilipatnam, on noon of Friday.
But the Cyclone may push West or W-N-W from now on, and make landfall along Mahilipatnam to Kakinada coastline in next 12hrs.
Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for people and properties along central Andhra coast.
Pressure around 978 mb
Winds reaching to 135 kmph.
Latest RADAR shows, Rain have pushed into N-central,central Andhra coast.
6:40pm, Now it is around 195 km from Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
.gif)
Satellite IR at 6pm, shows major Cloud mass has started to push into Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
JTWC, NAVGEM expects the system to drift W-S-W in next 12hrs and make landfall near Machilipatnam, on noon of Friday.
But the Cyclone may push West or W-N-W from now on, and make landfall along Mahilipatnam to Kakinada coastline in next 12hrs.
Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for people and properties along central Andhra coast.
HELEN - Drifting N-N-W and maintaining same intensity. 200km S-E from Kakinada
Analysis at 1pm, show that the system has slowly move N-N-W, maintaining its intensity.
Now positioned at around 200km S-E from Kakinada.
Pressure around 978 mb.
Winds gusting upto 130 kmph.
Going by latest movement and travel speed, the Landfall can take place along Kakinada and Machilipatnam coast in next 12hrs.
1:30pm, Satellite visible and Visakapatnam RADAR image suggests Rain has started along N coast Andhra, even into Visakapatnam.
High winds reaching to 130 kmph and HEAVY rain are expected along coast between Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Showers with High winds can push into S Odisha as well in next 18hrs.
Now positioned at around 200km S-E from Kakinada.
Pressure around 978 mb.
Winds gusting upto 130 kmph.
Going by latest movement and travel speed, the Landfall can take place along Kakinada and Machilipatnam coast in next 12hrs.
1:30pm, Satellite visible and Visakapatnam RADAR image suggests Rain has started along N coast Andhra, even into Visakapatnam.
High winds reaching to 130 kmph and HEAVY rain are expected along coast between Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Showers with High winds can push into S Odisha as well in next 18hrs.
Helen - Drifted N-W and Intensified. 250km E-S-E from Machilipatnam
During past 10hrs, Cyclone HELEN has not moved significantly, in fact it has only drifted N-W.
Latest ADT analysis suggest that the system has intensified by dropping pressure from 992mb to 980mb.
Present wind gusts are upto 130 kmph.
Location is 15.33 N , 83.51 E... around 250 km E-S-E from Machilipatnam.
Visible shot at 8:30am, reveals there is heavy convective activity around its center.
Now the predicted landfall is near Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Since the movement is very slow, LESS rain activity seen along coastline.
Some rain seen pushing into N-coast of Andhra above Machilipatnam.
Almost NO rain expected along N-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai till evening, unless the system makes a W-S-W movement.
Latest ADT analysis suggest that the system has intensified by dropping pressure from 992mb to 980mb.
Present wind gusts are upto 130 kmph.
Location is 15.33 N , 83.51 E... around 250 km E-S-E from Machilipatnam.
Visible shot at 8:30am, reveals there is heavy convective activity around its center.
Now the predicted landfall is near Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Since the movement is very slow, LESS rain activity seen along coastline.
Some rain seen pushing into N-coast of Andhra above Machilipatnam.
Almost NO rain expected along N-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai till evening, unless the system makes a W-S-W movement.
Helen at 5:30am, 21-Nov-2013
HELEN
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Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Heavy rain for central,N Andhra coast, S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu on Thursday !!
HELEN has not moved again... but latest ADT analysis show more intensification ... Pressure now around 987mb, Winds upto 110 kmph
Showers expected to start along central,N Andhra coast by morning of Thursday.
This is the 10pm, Satellite IR of Cyclone HELEN, "shows heavy convective activity around the center of system" ... http://ow.ly/i/3MDnQ
For #Chennai, N Tamilnadu coast, if Cyclone Helen moves W-N-W or N-W then there's very LESS chance of rain even after landfall.
In next 12hrs, there's a chance of low level circulation along corner of S-E Arabian sea near S Kerala, more heavy rain for S,central Kerala
Due to S-E Arabian sea circulation, Heavy rain also expected for S tip Tamilnadu during next 36hrs... http://ow.ly/i/3MD6X
Before tomorrow evening showers also expected for #Kochi. May ruin the Ind v WI #Cricket match.
Showers expected to start along central,N Andhra coast by morning of Thursday.
This is the 10pm, Satellite IR of Cyclone HELEN, "shows heavy convective activity around the center of system" ... http://ow.ly/i/3MDnQ
For #Chennai, N Tamilnadu coast, if Cyclone Helen moves W-N-W or N-W then there's very LESS chance of rain even after landfall.
In next 12hrs, there's a chance of low level circulation along corner of S-E Arabian sea near S Kerala, more heavy rain for S,central Kerala
Due to S-E Arabian sea circulation, Heavy rain also expected for S tip Tamilnadu during next 36hrs... http://ow.ly/i/3MD6X
Before tomorrow evening showers also expected for #Kochi. May ruin the Ind v WI #Cricket match.
Helen movement
Location Lat:15.4 Lon:83.8
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Date Time Swh Swell Wind Sst Current
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20-NOV-2013 05:30 2.948(SE) 0.838(SW) 24(SE) 27 38
20-NOV-2013 11:30 3.165(SE) 1.012(SE) 24(SE) 27 43
20-NOV-2013 17:30 3.364(SE) 0.853(NW) 28(SE) 27 42
20-NOV-2013 23:30 3.506(SE) 0.802(NW) 31(SE) 27 37
21-NOV-2013 05:30 3.032(SE) 0.778(NW) 26(SE) 27 32
21-NOV-2013 11:30 2.384(SE) 0.925(SW) 21(SE) 27 34
21-NOV-2013 17:30 2.000(SE) 1.015(SW) 20(SE) 27 37
21-NOV-2013 23:30 1.771(SE) 1.051(SW) 17(SE) 27 31
Courtesy :INCOIS
It just entered where SST is low [Predicted value]
The movement is about 20kmph.
It may emerge coast between Kakinada & Vizakapattinam
[near TUNI [17 Deg 17 min N / 82 Deg 36 min East]
It may take another 12-13 hours to cross coast
which is about 260km WNW
Helen - Almost NO movement and Slightly intensified
Latest analysis at 6pm, shows that HELEN has not moved greatly, drifted slightly to W-N-W again.
In fact it has intensified slightly.
Latest pressure at core is around 992mb and winds reaching upto 100 kmph.
Positioned at 15.41 N, 84.01 E at 6pm.
Visible satellite shot at 4:45pm, show GOOD convective activity around its center.
Wind analysis at 5:30pm show, high winds of above 65kmph around center.
Computer Models still consider a Near Nellore, Ongole landfall as Cyclone by evening / late evening of 21-Nov, Thursday.
JTWC has forecast a path towards central Andhra coast, between Ongole - Bapatla - Machilipatnam
What are the present forces acting on the Cyclone?
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There are anti-cyclones at low levels over North Arabian Sea and over central Arabian sea at upper levels. These can guide the system to move in a W-S-W direction in next 12hrs.
And moreover the models expect the central Arabian sea (upper level) Anti-cyclone to move into South Peninsula in next 18hrs and this can weaken the Cyclone before landfall.
Wind and Rainfall forecast ::
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Latest RADAR image from Visakapatnam shows the Cyclone over its South and Machilipatnam RADAR starting to show HELEN over its East at around 200 to 250km from coast.
Going by latest status and model forecasts.
Central, North Andhra coast to start receiving light to moderate rain with winds gusts from morning / mid morning of Thursday. Rain and wind intensity will start to increase after from mid-noon tomorrow.
S Andhra coast is in for moderate rain from mid-noon tomorrow.
N.Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai can get showers only after the landfall, that is after midnight of 21-Nov.
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