Showers over S.Tamilnadu and S.Kerala is expected to continue for next 36hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/175Mu

No W.D expected for N,N-W India till 14-Nov.

Till 12-Nov, except south extreme, rest of India is going to be DRY !

A weak low level circulation is seen near coast of S-W Maharastra .. and expected to persist for another 36hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/175KV

A low level circulation is expected over S.Bangladesh from tomorrow .. NO significant weather change expected http://ow.ly/i/175LO 

NOGAPS expects that strong easterlies will reach Tamilnadu coast on 13-Nov (Diwali day) and rain will start... http://ow.ly/i/175Ja

So NOGAPS model expects a rainy Diwali day, 13-Nov for entire Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.

And COLA model suggests a DRY day for entire Tamilnadu on Diwali day !

Today, the low level circulation persists over S-E corner Bay .. and easterlies is seen entering into S-E Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/175F3

Easterlies will become strong in next 24hrs and this'll push the circulation west towards Srilanka... http://ow.ly/i/175Gc

Both COLA & NOGAPS models agree to a strong circulation over S.Bay on 12/13-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/175GL

After 13-Nov, COLA suggests that the circulation will become as a depression/cyclone and move N-N-W towards Andhra.. http://ow.ly/i/175Hy

But NOGAPS suggests a more Westerly movement due to the strong Easterlies pushing west ... http://ow.ly/i/175Ic  

#chennai - 3:32pm, It's warm at 29.3°C and touched a max of 30.9°C (1:26pm). Very less cloud formation seen.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 10.00pm, Foggy morning & Yet another Sunny and hot day, with no cloud formations., rainless week.

Vagaries' events sequence till 18th November, estimated on 9th November, Night:

1. A low ( BB-11) can form in the Bay, East NE off Sri Lanka, around the 10N line, by the 14th/15th of November. Initial pressure 1006 mb

2. Tracking West/North-Westwards, centre  will Strike Northern Sri Lanka by the 15th, and move into Tamil Nadu between Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinum by the 17th of November. Indian coast hit pressure 1004 mb, as a depression.

More on Vagaries..

#Delhi - is not expected to touch 10 deg C mark till 17-Nov.. it'll linger around 14/15 deg C.

Night temp. over N,N-W, Uttarpradesh and N,central Madhyapradesh will go down towards Diwali and beyond that.. http://ow.ly/i/16Qem 

3pm, Strong showers seen over S-extreme Kerala, S,S-E Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/16PBl