The IMD site is not opening since 2 hrs.Hence not accessible. Why ?In such an important time, we should have easy and latest updates.How do agencies get information on the cyclone now ?

Wind speed estimation for Cyclone "Phet"

Only when IMD says it has crossed 220km/hr then only it will be named as supercyclone

current intensity of phet

NRL
—————
Best status from NRL: 110kts 941 mb

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
—————————-
Pressure/ Vmax
924.4mb/117.4kt

IMD
——–
But according IMD the pressure about 980mb.

JTWC
———
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS


posted by Pradeep

7:30pm, All day long thunder storm activity over Gujarat has reduced... http://ow.ly/i/1SlV

7:30pm, Heavy thunder storms all along western Ghats and towards coast from Maharastra to Kerala.... http://ow.ly/i/1SlV

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 9.. Very near to Oman

Too close to Oman.
Still moving in North-West direction and NO sign of re-curve.
The system should re-curve in another 6 hrs or crash over Oman in another 24 hrs.


JTWC warning
--------------------------------

021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED 
AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM EYE. A MID-
LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ONTO THE COAST OF 
OMAN BY TAU 36, WHERE IT SHOULD SLOW AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER 
LAND. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED. TC PHET SHOULD 
THEN ENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA BY TAU 72 WITH AN 
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH 
LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF PAKISTAN BY TAU 96. TC PHET WILL 
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. 
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SPLIT BETWEEN 
THE FASTER RECURVERS (UKMO, ECMWF, WBAR) AND THOSE THAT ARE SLOWER 
(GFDN, GFS, NOGAPS), TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OMAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
HAS CONTINUALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH A SLOWER RECURVE TO THE EAST. 
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS SLOWER TO RECURVE AND IS SIMILAR TO 
MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING TC 03A OVER OMAN AND WEAKENING IT 
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. 

JTWC projected path
--------------------------------

Satellite shot at 7pm IST
-----------------------------------------

RT @abnashbudhani: foto taken after the heavy rainfall in aurangabad at around 6.45 pm http://ping.fm/6zT4Y @weatherofindia

"Phet" Update: 6pm IST

"Phet" Update: 6pm IST
"PHET" has strengthened further to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the last 6 hours. Current location is 18.2N 60.0E about 300 Kms South East of Oman Coast. Winds are at 125 Knots with Central pressure of about 929 Mb. The Wave height is 7 meters. Defying all predictions, of re-curving at 62E, it has moved North-Northwest continuously, and has progressed towards Oman. It is expected to strengthen further and track mainly North- Northwestwards direction for the next 24 to 36 hours. Now, it is expected to initially strike the North-Eastern coast of Oman in the next 24 hrs.
The re-curving promise holds good still. After striking Oman, the storm is predicted to move North-East back into the Arabian Sea. The influence of Western Disturbance has to be watched carefully to see how this system tracks after 36 hours. Various Forecast models are differing on the final track "PHET.''
It is important for all Arabian Sea coastline countries from Oman, Iran, Pakistan & India to be watchful and closely monitor "PHET" for any track changes.
Saurashtra & Gujarat:
Even though "Phet" is more than 1100 Kms. from Saurashtra Coast, due to the Intensity of this system, we can  expect windy conditions and scattered rains in pockets for Saurashtra due to the the moisture incursion from Arabian Sea..
Oman:
"PHET" is only 300 Kms South-East of Oman Coast and due to the proximity  precautions about very windy conditions as well as flash flooding due to rains need to be taken. Most Forecast models are expecting a Recurve North Eastwards after 36 hours.

The NLM

The 'VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STROM [VSCS]' PHET enabled SWM winds to attain the maximum northern limit of monsoon. [Even the phraseology VSCS is changed after Orissa Super cyclone in 1999.] This will help monsoon wind to blow anywhere once the PHET ceased to exist. This will lead to more variability of rainfall in space and time. At this rate Kerala and Karnataka may NOT get their due share for the month of June (or even the rest of monsoon period). It is true that each year the SWM is different and no two SWM pattern is unique. After all it is RAINFALL that the monsoon's activity and strength is measured as VIGOROUS, ACTIVE, NORMAL OR WEAK.

RT @AVEEMIISRAW: Crossed the 19th milestone. To Munnar No rains. Cloudy and sparsely overcast (6:21pm)

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 8.. Very Severe Cyclone nearing Oman coast ... http://ow.ly/1SYUG