Sunday, April 19, 2009

The Deadly Cyclones of Bangladesh



Map of northern Bay of Bengal coastline
showing Bangladesh and surrounding nations.



Images from: Significant Severe Cyclones Striking Bangladesh




Tropical Cyclone October 2000 (Courtesy NOAA)




Composite of Cyclone Tracks Crossing
the Bay of Bengal (1970 to 2005)
Source: Wikimedia Commons




Cyclones Tracking Over Bangladesh During the Twentieth Century
Source: Banglapedia



The 1970 Bhola Cyclone




Track for Bhola Cyclone, November 1970
Source: Wikimedia Commons




Image of the Bhola cyclone taken on 11November 1970.
Courtesy US NOAA



The 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone

Color coding of storm strength based upon Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

TD TS 1 2 3 4 5

Track of 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, April 1991
Source: Wikimedia Commons




1991 Bangladesh cyclone near peak intensity on April 29 at 0623 UTC.
Courtesy US NOAA / Satellite and Information Service




Flooded villages and fields around a river in Bangladesh
the day after the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone
Courtesy US Air Force Defense Visual Information Center
Photo by Staff Sergeant Val Gempis



Cyclone Sidr



Color coding of storm strength based upon Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

TD TS 1 2 3 4 5

Track of Cyclone Sidr, November 2007
Source: Wikimedia Commons




Tropical Cyclone Sidr (06B) in the Bay of Bengal, as seen by the MODIS
instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite on November 14 at 0445 UTC.
Courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC




Map showing affected districts of Bangladesh due to Cyclone Sidr, November 2007.
Courtesy Humanitarian Information Unit, US Department of State




Coastal Damage due to Cyclone Sidr.
Courtesy U.S. Navy, photo taken by
Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Christopher Lange

Cyclone Bijli kills five in Bangladesh

From http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200904191351.htm

Five people were killed as Cyclone Bijli hit Bangladesh's southern region, but there was no serious damage to the ports and other installations.

As the cyclone fizzled out, life began to return to normal in the coastal districts, the Chittagong and Mongla ports and Chittagong airport Friday evening, The Daily Star said on Sunday.

Bijli hit Chittagong-Cox's Bazar coast at around 7.30 p.m. Friday, weakened gradually with rainfall and fizzled out Saturday morning as it entered Rangamati in Chittagong Hill Tracts.

Five people were killed during the cyclone in Cox's Bazar, Chittagong and Noakhali Friday night, while 12 people were injured.

Over 300,000 persons were evacuated during Friday-Saturday, media reports said.

Bangladesh is in the cyclone-prone region and has faced over 80 major cyclones that have been recorded.

The last major cyclone was in November 2007. Cyclone Sidr left over 50,000 dead, destroying crops and damaging ports.

Late summer afternoon "Thunder cells"

Visible satellite pics loop of late summer afternoon thunderstorms over Andhra, Karnataka and Kerala on 19-Apr-09.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

"Bijli" - super satellite shot

"Bijli" near Orissa coast... taken by NASA's Earth Observatory project.

Bijli's final track - video

past 12 hr satellite pics loop

Land ahoy for cyclone "Bijli"

At last cyclone bijli has made landfall over Bangladesh at around "10 PM" India time near "Chittagong sea port".

Here's the final tracking from JTWC (issued just before making landfall) and some news reports.

POSITION NEAR 22.2N 92.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BANGLADESH
AT 18Z, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 1930Z. TC 01B WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND,
ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
BANGLADESH, EASTERN INDIA AND INTO MYANMAR, CAUSING TC 01B TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET

Here's the satellite pic just before impact.

Cyclone Bijli hits Bangladesh coast from Earthtimes.org

Dhaka - Cyclone

Bijli hit the Bangladeshi coast late Friday night, but the tropical storm had weaken slightly before reaching the south eastern shoreline, officials said. A Bangladesh meteorological department statement said that the cyclone - with a wind speed

of 90 kilometres per hour - would take five to six hours to cross the coast.

It was likely to continue gradually weakening, it added.

Several thousand inhabitants of islands in the Bay of Bengal were already evacuated earlier Friday, ahead of the storm.

No initial reports of casualties were reported from the coastal districts, apart from destruction of a few thatched houses and damaged crops in the path of the cyclone.

The government earlier suspended all works at Bangladesh's major Chittagong sea port, and Shah Amanat International Airport

, the second largest airport of the country, as a precaution for the storm.

"We observe the cyclone was getting weaker gradually , and there is nothing to be panicked at this moment," Bangladesh's Food and Disaster Management Affairs Minister Abdur Razzak said after reviewing the situation at a meeting on disaster preparedness.

He added that the maritime ports must maintain the defensive stance adopted earlier to avoid loss of life and property.

Earlier on Friday, the authorities evacuated several thousand residents of islands in the Bay of Bengal as the moderate-intensity cyclone was forecast to hit the Bangladeshi coast early Saturday.

"People from low-lying islands were brought to cyclone shelter centres Friday, and we have prepared to evacuate other costal residents to safer places if required," said MS Akbar, chairman of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society.

More than 12,000 volunteers were engaged in cyclone preparedness work.

Heavy rainfall was recorded Friday in coastal districts, and the low-lying coastal areas of Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, Laxmipur, Bhola, Barisal and Chandpur and their offshore islands were warned to expect water surge of 2 to 3 meters above normal tide.

Fishing boats and trawlers in the northern Bay of Bengal were ordered to take shelter, and the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority suspended river transport service.

Thousands of volunteers have been asking coastal residents to go to safer places, especially to cyclone shelter centres constructed after the devastation of the November 2007 Supercyclone Sidr, which killed more than 4,000 people.

Friday, April 17, 2009

"Bijli" still skimming the coast.

Here is the latest satellite pic 7 pm India Time.

We can notice lot's of small and big Electric storms along it's TAIL ...around orissa, Andhra.

And we can notice a BIG electric storm over western ghats.

News about "bijli" is that it's skimming along, and now almost crossing Bangladesh.

Next 40 days according to MJO

Present WET conditions over Bay is going to vanish after 20-Apr-09.

A mild wet disturbance to come around 1st week of May.

Super DRY and HOT spell is from 6-May to 16-May.

And South-west monsoon is coming good after 26-May-09.

We'll keep updating this MJO factor.

For the past week the MJO factor proved perfect.

No land in site for "Bijli"...!

Here is the latest tracking data and prediction from JTWC.

So far, JTWC predictions has proved right.

It seems the Cyclone will intensify further before making land fall.

POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
17/0130Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTRO-
PICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW BALANCES THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET.

Latest satellite pic (4 pm India time)... shows the CORE is almost touching the coast of Bangladesh.

Regardless of JTWC prediction, We might have a landfall over Bangladesh in another 2 hrs.

We'll update it as and when it happens.

Thursday, April 16, 2009