Getting warm & humid

Recent satellite images showed lot of cloud activity over southern bay and near 5th parallel. Even South-south-tamilnadu had some share of scattered mild showers.
Chennai:
we are experiencing near 30 deg temperatures and bit more humid than previous weeks.
Certainly for the past 4 days the minimum temperature was not at all low.
Today, morning it was fully cloudy and warm.
Now(29-Jan-09, 11:35AM) the humidity is on the higher side 65% and temperature is rising steady at 28.8°C.

Are we nearing the end of winter season or something else..??
We might have a localized shower or two in next 72 hrs.
GFS models suggest nothing and will remain so.
MJO forecast suggests still we are in a mild wet phase... and will continue till 10-Feb-09.
Here is the long range precipitation forecast till June-2009.... It suggests a more than normal rainfall for Western Peninsular India.

Valcanoe - "Chaiten" .... Fuming Anger!

A classic shot of 2 cyclones

A classic shot of 2 cyclones
one to north-east of Madagaskar "TC - ERIC"
and other one approaching Madagaskar from South-west "TC - FANELE"

Mild winter day & night

We(Chennai) are experiencing a mild winter day & night from 10-Jan-09 to till date.
From 15-Jan-09 to 21-Jan-09 there was some cloud activity over the South-south-bay near the 5th parallel...gradually it became a huge cloud mass and moved south instead of moving north-west.
Now it's a potential cyclone just south of Equator.
Again the Bay is clear and there are some cloud formations over South-western Arabian sea.
Going thru all parameters, next 5 days will be with bit warm days and mild nights.
The low temperature will be around 21 deg.

A sudden change in MJO forecast says,
that we are currently in a wet phase and will continue till 7-Feb-09.
Previously it was predicting a wet phase from 2-Feb-09 to 14-Feb-09.

Some activity in South Bay

Chennai, remained clear and dry thru the day.
Some cloud formations can be seen till early Noon and nothing else after that.

Meanwhile, latest satellite pic shows lot's of activity near EAST of Srilanka and it covers a GOOD sizeable region in Southern Bay.
Early morning picture showed very small cloud mass, but now (7:07pm) it's a huge mass.
GFS reflects nothing for even South-Tamilnadu.

Almost an Electric shower

As expected we(Chennai) almost had an electric shower...
We had a sharp shower late into night with any electric activity.
From yesterday morning, it was DIM with a mild high cloud cover, Temperatures nearing 30 deg, Bit high in humidity around 60% and in late afternoon lot's of low cloud formations were seen.
We even had some sprinkles of rain around 6 PM.
After that also clouds formations were moderate and after midnight we had a shower.
Satellite pic analysis and latest visible satellite pic shows some formations overnight and nothing much now(16-Jan-09, 12:30PM).
For the past 3 days we have some moisture from sea, that is creating these local bursts.
Please note: These local moisture based activities CANNOT be predicted using any GFS models till date. These can be predicted ONLY using VERY LOCAL weather data.

Today(16-Jan-09), it's like a perfect November monsoon day.... bit warm and sultry.
Less cloud formations can be seen.
Forecast: These local disturbance will continue for another 48 hrs, then gradually the night will become cold again and with DEWs in morning.

Landslide in Guatemala

Warm and Windy - Pongal Holidays.!

Chennai, lately is warm, sunny and WINDY.
Humidity was and is around 60%.
After some 10 days the minimum temperature was a bit low today(15-Jan-09) at 23.0°C.
Wind is from North-north-east and at times it's gusting from 20 KM/h to 30 km/h.
Going thru all local weather patterns, we might soon have a electric shower.

Latest Satellite pic shows nothing over Bay region.
And GFS shows no activity for next 5 days.

"Haze over North India"

Bit warm day(s) and morning(s)

Chennai:
For the past 7 days the minimum temperature was not low at this time of year.
Humidity was around 50%.
Although the DAY temperature was around 29 deg, we can feel some HEAT out of it.
Latest GFS & Satellite... shows NOTHING(No rain) for next 5 days.
Even the "Total percipitable Water" potential has also gone down over the Bay region.
This means there'll not be any formations over Bay for next 7 days.

According to MJO forecat, we are moving into a VERY dry phase of MJO.


Today morning we got reports of MILD showers over South of Chennai(not suburbs).