Outer edge of "92B"

Present position of Tropical Depression
13/1430 UTC LAT = 8.8N LONG = 81.4E CATEGORY = T1.5/2.0

Latest bulletin from US Navy
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 84.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 82.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
130348Z ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL
TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

Take a look at the latest Satellite pic.


Chennai was totally cloudy thru the day.
From evening onwards there was sprinkling of rain, it's continuing now(10:33 PM) also.
The rain rate will increase from early morning.
The above forecast is only IF the present system is sustained and moves east.
According to me the present "92B" depression might break off before tomorrow evening, that too over SEA itself.

"92B" has sustained

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
Bay of Bengal - 2030 GMT
System 92B
Position 7.1N 83.9E
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming within 24 hours: FAIR

Here in chennai, morning (8:49 AM).
It's heavily cloudy. This may the outer edge of the depression "92B".
Let's hope this system brings us good rain.
Take a look at the latest numeric forecast for next 24hrs

"92B" is moving

Here's the latest report from US navy ...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 85.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
120409Z ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

Take a look at the latest Satellite pic from F-15 pass over (US Navy)

Infrared from Weather.com

Full Indian ocean IR imagery

Almost a Depression "92B"

Past positions
10-Dec ---> 5.3N 85.4E
11-Dec ---> 5.7N 85.4E
12-Dec ---> 4.5N 85.6E
Category: T1.0/1.5
It has moved...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
Bay of Bengal - 1800 GMT
System 92B
Position 4.9N 85.5E
Location 355 miles ESE of Colombo, Sri Lanka
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming within 24 hours: FAIR
This disturbance has maintained its structure, although atmospheric conditions continue to be less than favourable. Any improvement could give rise to a fully fledged cyclone
Take a look at the latest satellite...

Latest on "92B"

What's is happening with LOW 92B.
It's just a low pressure system, lying south-east of Srilanka.
I still have lots of IF's and BUT's about the system because it's very slow to develop and move.
Here is the latest satellite imagery...

In Chennai, today morning it was cloudy and almost rain. Though the cloud was not heavy by no means but it was surely shower bearing ones. By mid-noon everything cleared off and it was just hazy towards the evening.
Temperature was Hi: 29.5°C @ 1:31pm
and Humidity was Low: 56% @ 1:37pm... very low indeed at noon.

US Navy/NRL is tracking "92B"

Take a look at the latest satellite pic from US Navy

Potential Tropical Cyclone

This is the latest advisory from JTWC Issued at 10/1800Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZDEC2007//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 85.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 101414Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED
LLCC WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EAST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR
3N 86E, JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, WHICH IS PRODUCING GOOD
DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

Activity over South Bay increasing

After we have reported yesterday about the "Activity over south bay"... now it's showing signs of developing into a Depression.
Still the whole mass of system is South of Bay of Bengal.
Take a look at this INFRARED satellite pic...

Chennai today experienced a bit Hot day with temperature Hi: 30.1°C @ 12:24pm.
Wind condition is still mostly North-East.
No rain and no sign of it today.
And expect rain during the weekend!

Latest Earth Quake ... daily update

Update time = Sun Dec 9 9:00:26 UTC 2007
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 3.7 2007/12/09 07:40:46 63.023 -148.152 100.0 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 7.6 2007/12/09 07:28:24 -26.156 -177.453 187.6 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
MAP 4.8 2007/12/09 05:34:30 12.360 125.589 31.7 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
MAP 4.9 2007/12/09 05:27:18 -19.107 -68.964 81.6 TARAPACA, CHILE
MAP 5.2 2007/12/09 05:22:16 12.285 125.329 84.3 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
MAP 2.5 2007/12/09 05:15:20 51.389 -178.765 59.7 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
MAP 3.1 2007/12/09 03:07:30 52.529 -174.434 91.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
MAP 4.8 2007/12/09 02:23:01 2.300 126.848 70.4 MOLUCCA SEA
MAP 4.9 2007/12/09 02:03:29 -15.049 -44.199 10.0 MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL
MAP 2.7 2007/12/09 01:12:25 62.288 -150.218 56.1 CENTRAL ALASKA

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