Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
98B, still persists over central,W-central Bay as WML with pressure around 1001mb.
Less signs of intensification observed.
98B, 12:30pm Satellite IR shows convective activity concentrated over its W,NW,SW zones and less over S,E,NE.
The wind gush to W.Pacific from S Bay is not allowing 98B's S,SE quadrant to develop.. so very less chance of intensification expected !
What is going to be for 98B during next 2 days?
Take a N,NNW movement same as that of the W.Pacific Typhoon with less/NO intensification
98B, at present is in high shear zone, but the North of it into Bay is good.
So it can move North without hindrance !
#Alert
Next 36hrs, HEAVY rain activity expected along central,S #Kerala and into S-tip, W-ghats of #Tamilnadu
Wet #Diwali !
Coastal #Tamilnadu, #Chennai and S-coast #Andhra to remain CLOUDY with light rain from now till #Diwali (18th) morning and even till evening.
Monday, October 16, 2017
Central Bay LOW is now tracked as 98B... expected to concentrate to a Depression before evening of 17th.
A mini West movement expected! #iwm
Regarding the track and intensity of 98B on 18th October... Due to 2 Typhoons over W Pacific, 98B may not become a Full cyclone. Lots of wind & moisture from S,SE Bay is expected to gush into West Pacific to feed those 2 Typhoons.
This may hinder the intensity of 98B.
98B, next 36hrs it'll drift West and then ...?? is still a question.
Let's wait for it to become a Depression on 17th.
Next 24hrs, T showers expected to be concentrated from NW Karnataka to S Karnataka to N,N-central Tamilnadu.
#Bengaluru zone can get scattered moderate rain before Tuesday morning.
S-coast #Andhra and N-coast #Tamilnadu, #Chennai can get light / moderate rain with heavy cloud cover before morning of Tuesday.
#Chennai - 2pm, moderate / light rain can push into city from N/NNE in next 1hr.
Meanwhile, cloud cover and mild drizzles will continue.
#ALERT
central #Kerala is expected to get widespread rain in next 42hrs due to the pull affect of Bay 98B.
Sunday, October 15, 2017
The awaited LOW is here over central Bay.
The LOW is over central Bay soon it'll be tracked.
Now, its time to check the intensity and track it'll move during next 3 days !
The central,W,NW,N Bay is having above normal Sea Surface Temperature and above 29 C... which is very good for Cyclone growth.
But in upper-level steering winds, there are some surprises.
The HIGH moving East from Middle-east is expected to steer our Bay system.
in this upper-level chart you can see the HIGH is now over middle-east and another over N-central Pacific.
The pacific HIGH is far away from our Bay system, so it may not influence the steering.
On other hand, the middle-east HIGH is expected to push East up to West India in next 2 days and expected to take control of the steering !!
Here's the upper-level forecast chart for 17th evening, one, can see the HIGH is near West India.
This is the reason WHY, both GFS and ECMWF 's latest model run shows the "expected" bay Cyclone to make landfall along N coast #Andhra !!
Don't be surprised to see a central coast Andhra landfall forecast in next analysis run by both GFS & ECMWF !
Present Bay LOW is expected to grow into Depression in next 36hrs and expected to track WNW !!
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