Sunday, December 11, 2016
December 11, 2016 at 03:31PM
#vardah eye is exactly 300km east of #Chennai. First rain band for city is 80km away. Drizzles expected at 6:30pm. #weather
ALERT - Vardah - just 24hrs away from Chennai
#Vardah - 10:30am, is still going strong "Category 1 storm "... Winds gusting to 130 kmph .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pPb54.jpg
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pPb5B.jpg
Yes, #Vardah is drifting towards #Chennai and NO weakening observed yet, but weakening will be there from Sunday late-evening !
#Chennai - 11am, #vardah seen on RADAR at around 350km East from city... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pPbez.gif
#Vardah landfall will be very near or over Chennai on Monday between 12pm and 4pm ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pPbvq.gif
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pPbvB.jpg
#Vardah #ALERT
Its now moving in a shear zone and Less shear near to coast ! Weakening should happen in next 12 hrs OR no weakening at all" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pPbC8.gif
#Chennai, S-coast Andhra and N-coast Tamilnadu .. light/moderate rain will start from Today evening.
#ALERT
#Chennai, S-Andhra, N-coast TN ... HEAVY rain with high winds expected from early morning of Monday !
#ALERT - From today evening to midnight of Monday.. HEAVY to VERY HEAVY rain forecast for #Chennai, S Andhra, NE-Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pPbVv.jpg
From morning of 12-Dec to late-evening ... HIGH "damaging" winds expected... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pPbXr.gif
Saturday, December 10, 2016
December 10, 2016 at 11:16PM
RT @navdeepdahiya55:
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) December 10, 2016
10:25pm, Its Raining at srinagar after 4 months. #WD . now full fledged winter likely over plains. #iwm
For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia
December 10, 2016 at 09:38PM
#vardah stays fit as severe cyclone. Now 85% chance of landfall near #Chennai as D.Depression on noon, 12-Dec. #weather
Vardah - Severe Cyclone ! Landfall can be South of Nellore !
11:30am, #vardah - Severe Cyclone.. and marching W, WNW ... Precipitation imagery also attached .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOiZQ.jpg
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOj0r.jpg
Severe cyclone #vardah is now "almost" parallel to #chennai latitude !
Present pos : 12.55N, 87.11E , pressure: 987mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjdl.jpg
Factors that are going to affect #vardah 's intensity ..
1. Shear towards Chennai coast is high.
2. Dry air slowly wrapping the system.
GFS, GEM, ECMWF are in sync with near #Chennai landfall as "cyclone" on 12-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjkH.jpg
NAVGEM, HWRF models suggest a just above Nellore landfall as Cyclone on 12-Dec .
IMD & JTWC also taking this opinion ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjqI.jpg
#Vardah - landfall can be along Chennai to Kavali, Andhra.... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjDi.jpg
#vardah - During landfall, intensity of the cyclone will be reduced due to DRY air and shear near coast !
#Vardah - DRY air is slowly wrapping the system.
In next 24 / 36 hrs, it'll try to wrap fully !!
If this happens, it'll lose intensity, rain ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjLu.jpg
VARDHA "Severe cyclonic storm" landfall over chennai
Cyclonic storm to severe cyclonic storm VARDAH: The cyclonic storm, VARDAH over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westnorthwestwards in past 06 hrs with a speed of 7 kmph.
The system is very likely to move westnorthwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to maintain its peak intensity upto evening of 11th December 2016. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving towards Andhra Pradesh coast.
It is very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam around afternoon/evening of 12th December 2016. -IMD
When system starts weakening while nearing coast it would move WSW direction. Then Landfall going to be further south which will between Nellore and chennai or over chennai
Now Both ECMWF and GFS are almost in same statement on landfall track between Nellore to chennai.
Rains for chennai will be from late Sunday an better rains (Moderate to heavy) during Monday to Tuesday. No flooding rains.
Image 1: current view of VARDAH (Infrared)
Image 2, 3, 4 ,5 : GEFS track and GFS and models shows system near chennai coast.
Image 6: Tropical cyclone intensity scale
#Chennai #Nellore
Cold weather across plains,WD approaching.
Delhi min:- 11.2°c
Rohtak:- 11°c
Narnaul:- 8.3°c
Hisar:- 10°c
Cold & foggy weather to persists over plains where as a wd is expected to approach hills by Today evening/night due to which moderate snow likely over hills & induced cyclonic circulation over central pak and abjoining Rajasthan due to which light rains /thundershowers may seen over plains of North punjab, Haryana & Rajasthan.
Cloudy weather may seen over the Delhi NCR region due to which min temp is expected to increase by very little notches but once the wd will clear away from the region the there will be sudden drop in min & max temp accross the plains & cold and dry NW winds blow over the region so, coldwave conditions may be witnessed over some parts thats how the intense winter will start over the region.
December 10, 2016 at 09:35AM
#vardah #wow latest visible shot. Massive #fog cover over haryana, Delhi, Uttarpradesh. #weather
December 10, 2016 at 07:31AM
6:30am, #vardah has intensified (987mb) and moved WNW. #Chennai is having a cold, high cloud #morning . #weather
Friday, December 09, 2016
Vardah - next 48hrs -- SST = ok, shear = ok, Dry air = NOT OK !!
4:30pm, Cyclone #vardah - No great intensification observed, less convective activity, but drifted West ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMvNg.jpg
#Vardah - ADT analysis suggest pressure around 995mb.
It'll intensify during next 36hrs ! but DRY air has slowly started to wrap thru SW.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMwj0.jpg
#Vardah - The dry air may wrap around the system more quickly after next 36hrs and during its intensification process !
#Vardah and dry air !!
GFS - expects there'll be dry wrapping in next 48hrs at mid-levels than in lower levels ..
After 36/48hrs, Due to DRY air, #vardah can have a drastic "moisture cut" >> meaning, it'll weaken !!!
Shear and Sea surface temperature is almost OK for #vardah 's further WNW track during next 36hrs ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMybH.jpg
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