Wednesday, October 26, 2016

October 26, 2016 at 07:08AM


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October 26, 2016 at 07:02AM


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October 26, 2016 at 06:50AM


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Cyclone Kyant is here

03B Cyclone is officially named as In past 12hrs, again it has tracked WSW, no further intensification observed ..


Tuesday, October 25, 2016

99B is now a Cyclone 03B and tracking towards Andhra !!


2:30pm, 99B has intensified into a Cyclone and now tracked as 03B.
It might get its name #Kyant before midnight.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/ojcUF.gif
03B, during past 12 hrs it has tracked West and then WSW.
Present position is plotted in map.
ADT analysis says pressure around 990mb .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojdzI.jpg


03B, Now ALL models suggest a #Diwali menace from Bay for zones from N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai to central-coast Andhra ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojdY1.jpg  


Models also suggest a weakening of this Cyclone to depression after 48hrs while nearing Andhra coast due to Dry air from NW and high shear ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/ojg1x.gif 
03B, already we can see DRY air from North #India is starting to entrain into  NW,W,SW quadrants of the system ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojgHB.jpg

Due to 03B Cyclone, As of now, on #Diwali day, 29-Oct, there's a 50% chance of Rain and Winds for S-coast Andhra and #Chennai.
Due to mid-level circulation over Lakshadweep .. scattered T showers possible for S,central Kerala and into S,SE Tamilnadu in next 30hrs.

October 25, 2016 at 07:08AM


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Monday, October 24, 2016

Sunday, October 23, 2016

October 23, 2016 at 06:21PM


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99B - Intensity and where it can move ?



99B is now a depression (according to IMD) and nearing Myanmar coast. 
But US Navy still plotting pressure around 1004mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofcXi.jpg
12pm, Most of convective activity is still concentrated over W,SW,NW quadrants of 99B.
T showers popping over Myanmar coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofd3t.jpg

99B - What next?
It'll track NE for 24hrs and then North or NNW into North Bay on 25-Oct.
As shear is low, it'll intensify to Cyclone.



For 99B..
GEFS expects the system to track NNW and crash into S Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdjs.jpg
HWRF model suggests or confused about the track "after 99B reaches Cyclone and drifts into N Bay" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdmk.jpg
UKMET model suggests a WSW drift after 99B reaches North Bay as a Cyclone ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdsH.jpg

Why models are confused?
All because of the 2 ridges and the 99B is struck right in-between ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdzL.jpg

Next 2 days, scattered T showers expected over central,N-central,W-ghats Kerala and into Nw,W,central,SE,central-coast Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofgFX.jpg

Friday, October 21, 2016

Update on 99B and "Chennai & Tamilnadu may not witness NEM this October"


Typhoon #Haima has made landfall around noon today ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od7SY.jpg


Now focus shifts to 99B in Bay, at present in central Bay as a LOW ... Low level circulation is exposed with convective activity over West ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od8qJ.jpg
9pm, IR shows still convective activity is over W,SW.
It's pull effect is giving T showers over Kerala and S,central,SE Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od9Ag.jpg

99B is expected to gain intensity slowly with an initial movement of NE towards Myanmar coast.
And take a N or NNW movement in next 2 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/odadX.gif
99B in next 2 days is expected to move NE, with moderate intensification into a Depression !
Shear is less in its NE direction ! ... 


During next 2 days.
Scattered T showers over central,S Kerala.
And
T showers also for W,central,central-coast, SE,S Tamilnadu ...