Cyclone Kyant is here

03B Cyclone is officially named as #Cyclone #kyant In past 12hrs, again it has tracked WSW, no further intensification observed ..

99B is now a Cyclone 03B and tracking towards Andhra !!

2:30pm, 99B has intensified into a Cyclone and now tracked as 03B.

It might get its name #Kyant before midnight.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/ojcUF.gif

03B, during past 12 hrs it has tracked West and then WSW.

Present position is plotted in map.

ADT analysis says pressure around 990mb .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojdzI.jpg

03B, Now ALL models suggest a #Diwali menace from Bay for zones from N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai to central-coast Andhra ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojdY1.jpg  

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojepP.jpg

Models also suggest a weakening of this Cyclone to depression after 48hrs while nearing Andhra coast due to Dry air from NW and high shear ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/ojg1x.gif 

03B, already we can see DRY air from North #India is starting to entrain into  NW,W,SW quadrants of the system ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojgHB.jpg

Due to 03B Cyclone, As of now, on #Diwali day, 29-Oct, there's a 50% chance of Rain and Winds for S-coast Andhra and #Chennai.

Due to mid-level circulation over Lakshadweep .. scattered T showers possible for S,central Kerala and into S,SE Tamilnadu in next 30hrs.

October 25, 2016 at 07:08AM

RT @ChocolateLavaC1:
Odisha asks people not to panic over possible cyclone @weatherofindia https://t.co/XPeNgXXcRV #iwm

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) October 25, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

99B - North, NNW drift observed, No intensification !

5:30pm, 99B, Still a depression and a Northward drift observed ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/oh0Ae.gif 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oh0AC.jpg 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oh0Bl.jpg 

99B, Now, many models suggest a NW, WNW movement and then a WSW or SW movement "may be towards Andhra coast" .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oh1Lx.jpg

October 23, 2016 at 06:21PM

JTWC has issued Cyclone formation alert for 99B.
Marginal Cyclone expected in next 30hrs and track N,NNW #iwm

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) October 23, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

99B - Intensity and where it can move ?

99B is now a depression (according to IMD) and nearing Myanmar coast. 

But US Navy still plotting pressure around 1004mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofcXi.jpg

12pm, Most of convective activity is still concentrated over W,SW,NW quadrants of 99B.

T showers popping over Myanmar coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofd3t.jpg

99B - What next?

It'll track NE for 24hrs and then North or NNW into North Bay on 25-Oct.

As shear is low, it'll intensify to Cyclone.

For 99B..

GEFS expects the system to track NNW and crash into S Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdjs.jpg

HWRF model suggests or confused about the track "after 99B reaches Cyclone and drifts into N Bay" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdmk.jpg

UKMET model suggests a WSW drift after 99B reaches North Bay as a Cyclone ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdsH.jpg

Why models are confused?

All because of the 2 ridges and the 99B is struck right in-between ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdzL.jpg

Next 2 days, scattered T showers expected over central,N-central,W-ghats Kerala and into Nw,W,central,SE,central-coast Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofgFX.jpg

Update on 99B and "Chennai & Tamilnadu may not witness NEM this October"

Typhoon #Haima has made landfall around noon today ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od7SY.jpg

Now focus shifts to 99B in Bay, at present in central Bay as a LOW ... Low level circulation is exposed with convective activity over West ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od8qJ.jpg

9pm, IR shows still convective activity is over W,SW.

It's pull effect is giving T showers over Kerala and S,central,SE Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od9Ag.jpg

99B is expected to gain intensity slowly with an initial movement of NE towards Myanmar coast.

And take a N or NNW movement in next 2 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/odadX.gif

99B in next 2 days is expected to move NE, with moderate intensification into a Depression !

Shear is less in its NE direction ! ... 

During next 2 days.

Scattered T showers over central,S Kerala.

And

T showers also for W,central,central-coast, SE,S Tamilnadu ... 

October 21, 2016 at 09:45PM

RT @srin33:
Moderate showers in Theni,Tamilnadu for about 2 hours in the evening #iwm

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) October 21, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

October 21, 2016 at 09:07PM

RT @jnmet:
onset of NEM in early November. This year will be not be nearly as wet as last year in #Chennai. http://pic.twitter.com/WDA9ZMuctq #iwm

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) October 21, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

Typhoon Haima, Bay - 99B and NE monsoon delay !

Typhoon #HAIMA is nearing China coast near to HongKong ... Landfall expected in next 18hrs .. 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oajB5.jpg .. 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/oajEO.gif 

This Typhoon has popped a LOW in our central Bay of Bengal as well, it is tracked as 99B ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oajYH.jpg
This 99B is trying to establish/consolidate even though the low-level wind gush is still happening from S Bay to that Typhoon ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oalue.jpg

At present 99B is a LOW with pressure around 1004mb.

Expected movement is NE during next 2 days towards Myanmar coast !

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oamEB.jpg 

99B, Models suggest a North or NW re-curve after nearing Myanmar coast ... this will even delay the easterlies "NE Monsoon" into SE Bay. 99B 's expected re-curve may not happen if it fizzles out along Myanmar coast along with Typhoon Haima over China !

Has to watch till 23-Oct.

During next 2 days, due to pull effect of 99B, Kerala can have SW Monsoon style showers and HEAVY T showers along W-ghats Kerala, Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oaoOP.jpg

During next 2 days, scattered T showers expected to pop over central,W,SE, S Tamilnadu !