Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Monsoon active over Kerala, Karnataka coast. More T showers for interior Karnataka, Maharastra, Andhra
Today, there's a low-level trough seen from N Karnataka tilting S-W to Maldives, S-S-E Arabian sea.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/cSny4.jpg
This trough is expected to persist for next 42hrs, and will give good rainfall for Karnataka coast, Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu.
SW monsoon current is expected to be strong along Kerala and upto central coast Karnataka for next 48hrs.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/cSnGn.jpg
Meanwhile an anti-cyclone is expected to set foot over W,W-central India in next 2 days ... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/cSnMj.jpg
East or Central Bay may pop a strong circulation, LOW on 12-Sep.
Till then the Monsoon is expected to be active along Kerala !
Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
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During next 2 days, the Monsoon is expected to be active along Kerala coast, S,central coast Karnataka.
Before morning of 9-Sep..
Scattered T showers for W,S Maharastra, W,N,central,S Karnataka into N,N-E Tamilnadu, N,N-E,S Andhra and Telegana
Chennai - Can witness a moderate T shower today before midnight.
Bangalore - More rain ahead for today !
More T showers ahead for W,S,central Maharastra, N,W,central,S Karnataka on 9-Sep as well !
And
More T showers for Telegana, W,N-E,N,S Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu on 9-Sep... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COXZag5XAAA4wiS.jpg:large
NLM of SWM
However the withdrawal phase of SWM is also started. Winds may NOT reach beyond Mumbai.
Strength is upto 850hPa.
This effect is to be felt within another 72-84 hours
The NLM of SWM be distinct in another few days
Monday, September 07, 2015
SWM active in September
Yesterday"s active SWM in Telengana / AP which claimed 20 lives due to lightening at various places in AP/Telengana . The torrential showers in Hyderabad was also due to active SWM
Another 48-72 hours SWM is going to be active over Kerala,Karnataka. Revival !
Decisive light rain
This wind convergence is just North of Chennai and invaded from Bengaluru to Vellore to Chennai to south CAP.
Again this concentration is decisive and give few drops only (light rain) at pockets
Sunday, September 06, 2015
வரும் ஆனால் வராது.
Last week Chennai and suburb experienced HOT and HUMID weather. Hot and Humid air was virtually hitting face at 10m high [top of three story building]. But Upper Tropospheric Humidity was concentrated very few pockets [as far as Chennai and suburb is concerned] and it experienced 30-90mm of rainfall all in total. There was rain symptom but there were rains at pockets only. [வரும் ஆனால் வராது]. The spatial distribution of rain in Kerala and Karnataka is weak but temporal distribution (weak) nearing to negative side of Normal. Statistical interpretation some times will lead to illusion.
The threshold 850 hPa level moisture incursion is bleak. In atmosphere the moisture holding capacity will diminish aloft (or at higher level). But this time clouds were seen at height 3km. The total precipitable water at this level will be less in NON-CONVECTIVE clouds i.e SWM clouds so to say.
The south Indian Ocean is warmer near Mauritius, where the usual STH will be forming. However Bay branch of SWM is getting moisture to give copious rainfall in NE states like Assam, Sripunji witnessed very heavy rainfall, where as the SWM heavy rainfall gateway in western ghat region like Hulikal, Agumbe, Chinna Kallar witnessed very less rainfall. [If station level Normal and actual rainfall is considered for calculation it will be in deficient category only]
Kerala and Karnataka as a whole, upto 02.09.2015, is deficient. This is ground reality. But TN which is in the east is in Normal-negative side. Bay branch southerly winds helped. Here also evening radiation cooling saturated the unsaturated air and gave light rain. some times local convection triggered thunder storm activity for 10-30min [10mm-60mm]
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