Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Weather at May 19, 2015 at 03:18PM
Chennai - 3:10pm, hot and sultry. Travelling by bike is like riding in fire. #weather
Weather at May 19, 2015 at 03:13PM
2:40pm, Dohnavur - No letup in rains. Massive thunderstorms in hills. #weather
Weather at May 19, 2015 at 11:15AM
10:30am, T cell pushing in from SW over w-ghats, S Tamilnadu. Seen from Dohnavur. #weather
Monday, May 18, 2015
More rain ahead for S Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu. Monsoon for Andaman on 21-May
6:30pm, Showers over S-tip, S-central, N-W Tamilnadu, S-W,central Karnataka, S,S-central Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/aRMWj
6:30pm, T showers over N-E Andhra, S,central Odisha ... http://ow.ly/i/aRMWj
A good upper-level circulation seen over S-S-W Arabian sea ... and expected to drift towards Somali coast in 2 days http://ow.ly/i/aRNqJ
The upper-level W.D trough is now seen along S-E coast over Bay near to Tamilnadu coast .. will move East in 2 days http://ow.ly/i/aRNqJ
In next 36hrs, S-S-W Arabian sea circulation is expected to persist and drift close to Somali coast.. http://ow.ly/i/aRNSw
In 36hrs, in N-central Bay, an upper-level circulation is expected over present WD trough and expected to move E-N-E http://ow.ly/i/aRNSw
At low-levels, the cross equatorial winds are seen rushing into S,S-W bay due to present upper trough over Bay !
Conditions are getting right for Monsoon to launch into S,S-E Bay and S,central Andamans on 21-May.. http://ow.ly/i/aROAM
Due to rush of winds from Indian ocean into S-W,S,central Bay..
Monsoon like rain to prevail for S-tip Tamilnadu, S Kerala for 24hrs.
Monsoon style rain to persist for S-tip Tamilnadu, S Kerala and S-W Srilanka for next 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/aRP1V
Before late-evening of 19-May...
More T showers for W-ghats Kerala, S,S-W Karnataka and N-W,N Tamilnadu.
In next 36hrs... T showers for N,N-central Bengal and scattered over N-E states.
Nagercoil (S-tip Tamilnadu) - After a break, from 2pm got moderate rain and drizzles. rainfall till 6:30pm was 24mm.
May 18, 2015 at 02:58PM
Dohnavur - 2:22pm, Drizzle in the hills and very strong wind in the eastern plains. #iwm
Sunday, May 17, 2015
Monsoon Watch -4 Part II....Quantum Estimate for SWM..
If we take into account, that the ENSO is today is El Nino and "leaning" towards a stronger El-Nino phase by,say,July, then:
a) Till July, we can see slightly below normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of Sub-Continent regions. Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months will see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.
During the Northern track of the system, the monsoon trough could be pulled far North into the Himalayas, and possibility of "short "break Monsoon in 3rd week of July or near around that time period.
Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji/Mawsynram seems the likely candidate for the highest SWM rains).
Full Article in Vagaries
If we take into account, that the ENSO is today is El Nino and "leaning" towards a stronger El-Nino phase by,say,July, then:
a) Till July, we can see slightly below normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of Sub-Continent regions. Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months will see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.
During the Northern track of the system, the monsoon trough could be pulled far North into the Himalayas, and possibility of "short "break Monsoon in 3rd week of July or near around that time period.
Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji/Mawsynram seems the likely candidate for the highest SWM rains).
Full Article in Vagaries
SWM on set and deep south Mascarene High
** More sea erosion in east coast will be there and moderate rain in east coastal and immediately adjoining(west) areas in TN
*** Streams in eastern / western slopes too will get flash flood.
**** SWM onset may vary / or ?? delayed??
climatologicaly speaking, there were records of SUMMER rainfall and floods in TN.
******
Records depicting floods in River Vaigai When KALALAGAR is dipping in Vaigai,
******
documentary evidence were there to depict animal migration towards eastern slops in Tamil nadu during such climatological conditions especially at foot hills of western guards in TN.
The towns names were derived from migration of elephants [KARIVALAMVANTHANALLUR]
[KARISULMANGALAM]
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)