Saturday, November 08, 2014
05B - LOW moving towards central coast of Andhra
During past 18hrs, the system has tracked W, W-N-W and weakened to just a LOW, pressure around 1008mb.
8:30am, visible shows the almost fully exposed center of the system with moderate/ light convective activity seen over W,N-W,N quadrants.
Present position is 14.70N , 86.4E.
Models suggest a landfall as a LOW along S-central coast of Andhra on Sunday mid-night.
By Sunday morning, another LOW pressure system tracked as 99W will enter into S-E corner of Bay (Andaman sea).
At present, this system (99W) is expected to become a Cyclone and track west intially for 2 days !
On Sunday, evening,night into Monday mid-morning, moderate rain expected along S,central coast Andhra.
During this time, light/ moderate rain also expected for Chennai, N-coast Tamilnadu.
On 10-Nov, Scattered T showers expected over S,S-W, N,N-E Tamilnadu, S,central Andhra.
On 11-Nov, showers expected along N,central coast Tamilnadu and Chennai.
Weather Instagram at November 08, 2014 at 08:49AM
Chennai - 7:41am, Cold breeze hurdiling fresh saturday. Happy morning @ pallavaram . #weather
Friday, November 07, 2014
05B - From Tropical Cyclone to a Well marked LOW in 15hrs
Latest analysis show that 05B Tropical Cyclone has degraded during past 8hrs and now its just a well marked LOW.
Present position is almost the same as on evening of 5-Nov !!
And pressure around 1006mb.
Now, JTWC, NAVGEM and GFS expect the system to drift West during next 24hrs and reach S Andhra coast, Chennai around Saturday evening / night as a Well marked LOW.
There's a 20% chance of reaching coast as depression.
Thursday, November 06, 2014
91B is now tracked as a Deep depression "05B"
Analysis at 2:30pm, suggests that the system has almost intensified into a Tropical Cyclone.
Pressure around 996.9mb and winds reaching upto 90 kmph.
Present position is almost parallel to Chennai, 13.48N , 88E
Latest wind analysis show a good concentration of winds around its center.
3:30pm, Visible shows heavy convective activity around its center.
JTWC warning at 2:30pm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHEAST OF THE
MAJOR AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN RELOCATED
75NM SOUTHEAST OF PREVIOUS 060600Z POSITION DUE TO THE VISIBLE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE STEADY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY QAUSI-
STATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION
BETWEEN TWO SUB TROPICAL RIDGES (STR). BEYOND TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM
MATURES, EXPECT IT TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THAT CURRENTLY LIES TO EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS THE STR TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING TC 05B TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 48. JUST BEYOND TAU 72, TC 05B WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH
OF VISAKHAPATNAM AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THIS EARLY
SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. JUSTIFICATION
FOR AMENDED AND RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TC 05B
FURTHER TOT HE SOUTHEAST BASED ON VISIBLE LLCC. THIS CAUSED A
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CHANGE WITH REGARD TO TRACK SPEED AND FORECAST
EXTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 10 FEET.
GFS model, JTWC suggest a Westward track from now on and weaken before reaching S Andhra coast and Chennai.
NAVGEM model suggests the same Westward track from now and "weaken" and then make a S-W track towards central Tamilnadu coast !!
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