Cyclone "NILOFAR" Closing on Landfall , Weakening Rapidly ..

Now entering Gulf of Kutch

1. NILOFAR now entering gulf of Kutch.
2. The wind speed is ranging from 30 kts to 45 kts along Sindh delta region.
3. KARACHI will be experiencing heavy precipitation

4:55pm, Gloomy in Nagercoil with occasional drizzle till now from morning.

Nilofar - Tropical storm now and will be dead over sea.

During past 24hrs, the Severe Cyclone has degraded to a Tropical storm now.
Pressure has risen from 959mb to 995.1mb.
Present wind is around 90 kmph.

12:30pm, IR shows that the system has tracked N-E and convective activity is also weak.

In next 42hrs, this is expected to weaken further and fizzle out over Sea itself near to Coast of Kutch and S Pakistan.
Moderate showers expected over S,S-W,W Gujarat and over S,S-E Pakistan on 31-Oct and 1-Nov.

Looks like the easterlies have picked up strength today in Karaikal.
10:33AM,Gusty wind here.

Chennai - wind has picked up over low-levels but the direction is from NE. In next 24 hrs it'll become ENE and rain will start pushing in.

Moderate showers will start pushing into central , N Tamilnadu coast , #Chennai from morning or noon of Friday.

Nilofar - "going down"

4pm, Cyclone Nilofar has started to degrade ... and has drifted North during past 12hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/7o2XP 
4pm, Check the latest ADT analysis of Cyclone Nilofar, pressure around 972mb ... "its going down" .... http://ow.ly/i/7o31d 

Nilofar - Models expect the Cyclone to weaken rapidly (36hrs) and "may" reach Kutch, S Pakistan as a LOW on 31-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/7o3jG 

Weather Instagram at October 29, 2014 at 03:18PM

#chennai - 3pm, another dry day. Feels like early December. Stiff breeze from north. #weather

from Instagram

Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... http://ow.ly/i/7nWGU 
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!

N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday ! 
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWNW 

NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWRx 
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! http://ow.ly/i/7nWTb 
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. http://ow.ly/i/7nWV7 

Nilofar - Will track N-E from now and weaken !

Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity) 

Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.

Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" intensifying Rapidly , a "CAT-4"cyclone