RT @sanjeevnaique: Sun has just appeared here in Pune , temp. hovering around 26 deg cent with light cool breeze as no sign of rain 10:45am

Nilofar - slight weakening seen & drifted N-N-W

1pm, Visible shot shows a GOOD eye and good convective activity around center, N-E outer bands.
At present, Nilofar is a severe cyclone with minimum pressure at 982.2mb (have weakened during past 12hrs).
During past 15hrs, the system has drifted N-N-W ... present position is 16.12 N , 61.25 E.

In next 42hrs, under the influence of W.D trough the cyclone is expected to drift North and then N-E.

Latest models continue to suggest a N-E re-curve after nearing 20N and expected to intensify and then weaken before making landfall along Kutch, Gujarat on 1-Nov.
It may rapidly dissipate while reaching coast !

Lossing strength-NILOFAR

[1] The moisture feeder from South Indian Ocean for the system is cut off.

[2]Dry cold wind from land is engulfing the system. Thus prohibiting TC enhancement.

[3] The lack of clear upper air divergence or its shrinking flange  is a indicator

[4] However another wind shear closer to eastern side of the present location will brew cloud formation

[5] This same times may alter the track.  Winds from STH from Asiatic regions [i.e one at Mongolia , China ] is extending its tentacles from NE to Indian Continent including TN. 

[6] Yet another is just N-NW of India and influencing 'NILOFAR' movement.

[7] As of now the track is N NW and to change course to Indian West Coast to cross between Panjim to Gulf of Khambat.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" now a "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm"

S-S-E Bay is having a weak low-level circulation and it is slowly inching towards tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/7mwe7 
No intensification forecast for this S-S-E Bay circulation during next 2 days.

This S-S-E Bay circulation is expected to push in HEAVY rain along Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai from wednesday evening or Thursday.
Meanwhile, scattered rain expected for S Andhra coast, Chennai on tomorrow morning and before noon.
Tomorrow evening, midnight - more HEAVY rain expected to push into S-Andhra coast, #Chennai, N,central-coast, N-E Tamilnadu 
28-Oct, afternoon..
Again scattered T showers for W,S,W-ghats,N,N-central Tamilnadu and W-ghats Kerala.

Nilofar - showing signs of weakening !

During past 6hrs, the cyclone is showing signs of weakening as DRY air is slowly encircling South, S-E quadrants.
Position almost same as previous update ... 15.13 N , 62.16 E.
Pressure has risen to 974.7 mb
Winds has reduced to 150 kmph.

8:30pm, IR imagery shows, good convective activity over S,S-E,E quadrants and over its N-E outer bands.
Projected track remains the same, but it may weaken to a Cyclone or even a Depression before making landfall along Kutch, Gujarat on 31-Oct.

Nilofar - Severe Cyclone now !

Analysis indicate that Cyclone has drifted north during past 14 hrs, but it has intensified rapidly.
Now, its now a Severe Cyclone.
Present location ... 15.15 N , 62.30 E
Pressure is now around 959.5 mb
Winds gusting to 185 kmph

GFS, HWRF, NAVGEM models a Kutch, Gujarat landfall as a Cyclone on 31-Oct.
The present system is expected to drift N, N-N-W and take a N-E turn after reaching 20N. This re-curve is expected due to a mid, upper-level W.D trough and the due to vanishing of Anti-cyclone over Arabian peninsula.

1:30pm, Visible shows a EYE and convective activity over N-E,S,S-E quadrants.

Weather Instagram at October 27, 2014 at 12:01PM

Karaikal - 9:40am, Southeastern sky at Karaikal. Thunderstorm likely. #weather

from Instagram

RT @archvivekh: Raining here on Mount road, #Chennai @weatherofindia (10:49am)

#Chennai - 11:40am, Sharp showers / T showers expected to pop or push in from W-N-W during next 2 / 3 hrs.
Some rain already over city !

Arabian sea Depression intensifies into "CYCLONE NILOFAR"