Sunday, October 12, 2014

HudHud - Crosses thru Visakapatnam / Vizag and now inland !



12:30pm, Visible shot reveals that HudHud's eye is still intact even over land !

Here are some Instagrams from Vizag, N-E Andhra and Odisha !


Cyclone Hudhud making Landfall over Visakahpatnam




The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'HUDHUD' over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a
speed of about 15 kmph during the last 6 hours and  lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 12th October 2014 near
Lat.17.2°N and Long 84.2°E, about 100 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 240 km south­southwest of Gopalpur.   The   system   would   move   northwestwards   and   cross   north   Andhra   Pradesh   coast   close   to
Visakhapatnam around noon of today 12th October 2014
HudHud - 10:30am, EYE of cyclone is almost over Visakapatnam ... http://ow.ly/i/7c1OX ...  http://ow.ly/i/7c1P8

HUDHUD now closing Vizag

 [I] What wind indicates now :
12102014 / 0310 to 0355 hrs UTC

  • The Kolkatta wind is SEly and will become southerly sometimes from now. This indicates the eye is west of Kolkatta longitude.
  • The Visakapatinam wind is NEly and speed is about 90kts and sometimes from now winds will become EASTERLY.  [That is crossing]
  • The Machilipattinam winds are NWly and and will become NORTHERLY sometime from now indicates that system is EAST of Machipattinam longitude .
  • The HWSR at Visakapattinam is reporting surface wind NEly and gusting to Easterly with 80 kts.
  1.  The system is within 60km range of Vizag [S/SE]
  2. There is eastern ghats range at Vizag and moisture ladden winds  blowing over eastern ghats will rise orographically and  rainfall will be extremely heavy [>25.0cm] in those areas.


HudHud - 7am, Landfall is happening !



7am, HudHud is crossing inland "landfall is happening" thru N-E Andhra coast near Visakapatnam.
Eye of cyclone is around 90km S-E from Visakapatnam.
Eye will reach Visakapatnam in next 2/ 3 hrs.
"Heavy rainfall and high winds witnessed in Visakapatnam"

Present pressure is around 931mb and winds will reach up to 200 kmph.
Wind profile over Visakapatnam suggests "HIGH speed winds" at all levels from ground to 5.4km above sea level.

Cyclone HUDHUD , intensifying rapidly , closing on landfall



JTWC latest Bulletin : -warning - 16th 

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED WHILE THE 
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH A 
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEFINED BANDING. RADAR IMAGERY 
FROM VISAKHAPATNAM SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND 
REVEALS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON 
THE RADAR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE 
UNCHANGED STRUCTURE. TC 03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE 
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-
ORIENT AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA.TC 
03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER 
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 115 KNOTS. 
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE 
NEAR TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE FORECAST SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 

Saturday, October 11, 2014

HudHud - Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for N-E Andhra coast


During past 12hrs, the system has intensified further and in a rapid pace.
Now winds gusting up to a massive and dangerous 240 kmph .!!
Pressure has dropped from 941 mb at 1:30pm to 926.1 mb at 10pm.

Now it is positioned at 200km S-E of Visakapatnam.
Slowly tracking W-N-W , N-W.
RADAR shows that outer bands of the centre is pushing into N-E Andhra coast and HEAVY rain has started.
The interaction with land has started and in next 12hrs the system will degrade to an extent.

By early morning, morning - HudHud will push into N-E Andhra coast (just South of Visakapatnam) as Very Severe Cyclone.
Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for the people living in these region.
VERY Heavy rain and Winds upto 200 kmph will push across after 4am till 2pm of Sunday.
Sunday - Widespread, HEAVY to VERY HEAVY rain expected for N-E ANdhra coast and scattered over Coastal, interior Odisha.

HUDHUD close to visakapattinam

 [1] HUDHUD bright eyes visible.  The tracking is somewhat similar to exactly last year [11 Oct 2013) PHALIN.

[2] The High wind speed recorder at visiakapattinam recorded maximum 23.5kts winds with Northly direction at 11 Oct 2014 / 1758 hrs IST.





[3] HUDHUD is now within DWR visakapattinam range.

[4] Perhaps it may be crossing close to NORTH of TUNI  or in between TUNI and Visakapattinam.

[5] Northerly wind is indicator of outer periphery landfall.

Alert Issued at 5.30 pm IST Saturday!



Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud has intensified to cat 3 ! Colossal damaging winds speed estimated at 105 - 110 knts ,equivalent to 194- 203 kmph !! Winds estimated on DVORAK 1 minute estimates. core pessure estimated at 950 mbar.


112 knts is the outer limit for Cat3...Hudhud rushing towards a damaging Cat 4 status very fast !

Estimated Location: 16.2N and 85E...Thus having tracked WNW from previous reporting. Now barely 275 kms SE of Vizag...
Expected to cross just North of Vizag or around between Saturday mid night and Sunday 3 am...
from Vagaries

Cyclone HudHud intensifying Rapidly , reaches wind speed of 200 km/h , 941 hpa pressure