3:30pm, Due to upper-level circulation of the LOW... HEAVY rain seen over W,N-W Madhyapradesh, S,S-E Rajasthan.. http://ow.ly/i/6t3Je 
3:30pm, http://ow.ly/i/6t3Je ... some heavy rain also seen over N,N-E,E Gujarat.
Meanwhile, showers continue along Karnataka coast.

Today the LOW is over central,S Uttarpradesh ... expected to fizzle out in next 36hrs... http://ow.ly/i/6t2SD 

At present the low-level circulation associated to this LOW is over S Uttarpradesh, N-E MP... http://ow.ly/i/6t2Xh 
Upper-level circulation of this LOW is seen over N-W MP and S-E Rajasthan ... http://ow.ly/i/6t30F 
This upper-level cirulation is expected to induce another upper circulation over central,S-W Gujarat in next 60hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/6t3aO 

Remnant of this LOW as low,mid-level circulation is expected to persist over W,N-W,central Uttarpradesh till 8-Aug http://ow.ly/i/6t3ig 

West coast offshore trough continue to be active from S Gujarat coast to N Kerala coast.
W-coast offshore trough is expected to be active along Maharastra coast, Karnataka coast,N-Kerala during next 2 days. http://ow.ly/i/6t3oh 

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 3.10pm, Dark clouds from SW Direction and it is raining now... 

Weather Instagram at August 05, 2014 at 03:31PM

#chennai - 2:30pm, Hot summer continues. Scattered Rain possible after 4:30pm. #weather

from Instagram

Rainfall forecast for next 42 hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In next 12hrs...
HEAVY widespread rain expected along S,S-W,W quadrants of the present LOW... http://ow.ly/i/6scV4 
During next 12hrs...
HEAVY widespread rain ahead for S,central,E,N-E Madhyapradesh, N,central Chatisgarh into S,S-E Uttarpradesh.
Some heavy scattered rain is expected to push into E Gujarat and S,S-E Rajasthan as well before morning of 6-Aug.
HEAVY rain forecast for N,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-W Uttarpradesh and some rain is expected to push into S Haryana, Delhi in 24hrs.

As the low,upper-level circulation is expected to push W-N-W...
Tomorrow, scattered heavy rain for E,S-E,N-E Gujarat, W,N-W Madhyapradesh.
Tomorrow also HEAVY rain will persist over N,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-W Uttarpradesh.
Tomorrow, HEAVY scattered rain will push into S,S-E,E,central Rajasthan ... http://ow.ly/i/6sd9a 

Scattered T showers expected over N,N-W Tamilnadu on today, tomorrow afternoon.
Some will be over S Karnataka, moderate rain for Bangalore.
Moderate rain expected over #Chennai, N-E,N-central coast of Tamilnadu after 4pm on today, 6-Aug.

Today, the LOW/depression has drifted W-N-W and located over Jharkhand... expected to move N-W upto S-W Uttarpradesh http://ow.ly/i/6sb5h
West coast offshore trough is active from N Maharastra coast to N-central Kerala coast... will persist for 2 days .. http://ow.ly/i/6sbb7

Circulations related to this LOW is also located almost in same zone at ALL air levels (low,mid,upper)... http://ow.ly/i/6sbec
By 7-Aug, the low-level circulation of this LOW is expected to drift upto N Madhyapradesh, S-W Uttarpradesh, #Delhi http://ow.ly/i/6sbgC
While the upper-level circulation is expected to traverse W-N-W thru Central MP and reach E,N-E Gujarat on 7-Aug.. http://ow.ly/i/6sc2m

12:30pm, HEAVY rain is observed over most of Chatisgarh into E,S-E Madhyapradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/6sc7n
12:30pm, Scattered heavy rain persist over Karnataka coast, N-central,central Kerala and S-E Gujarat coast... http://ow.ly/i/6sc7n

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 10.00am, Swollen River Cauvery near Mandya on Aaadhiperukku ., clicked yesterday evening  http://ow.ly/i/6rjGY 

Today the N,N-N-W Bay circulation is seen along S Bengal, N-E Odisha ... pushing N-W into land ... http://ow.ly/i/6ropQ 
This present LOW is expected to move N-W upto S-W Uttarpradesh, N Madhyapradesh in next 42hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/6roxk 

3:30pm, Massive rain all along Southern side of monsoon axis and along circulation ... http://ow.ly/i/6rrQT 
3:30pm, Heavy rain seen from E,S-E Rajasthan, S Haryana thru central Madhyapradesh, S,central Chatisgarh to Odisha http://ow.ly/i/6rrQT
3:30pm, scattered rain also continue over Kerala, Karnataka coast, Maharastra coast ... http://ow.ly/i/6rrQT

#chennai - 7:36pm, moderate rain now over Polichalur zone

RT @OldSailor: @weatherofindia #Chennai #Nanganallur #Drizzling started after a hot day 1700 hrs http://t.co/O1JxekDPJE

#Chennai - 7:50pm, more moderate rain ahead for SW,W,S suburbs of city in next 1hr.

#Chennai - 9:10pm, heavy drizzle now over Polichalur zone. A heavy shower is now approaching this zone from west.

El-Nino Status 2014....prepared on 3rd August 2014.

The El Nino 2014 has stalled ! And Neutral Conditions Continue.

ENSO to develop requires the Sea Surface Temperatures to warm up. And the warming should go beyond the +0.5c anomaly. For this, the atmospheric support is needed. And that is suddenly lacking this last 15 days. ENSO can develop into El Nino with the assistance of both the sea and atmospheric parameters.

As a result, the Sea surface temperatures have stopped warming, in fact cooled a bit. Our region concern is the NINO 3.4...it has cooled by 0.3c last 15 days, and that anomaly is near about the long term average.

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) last observed was -5.2. Certainly refraining us from calling it an El Nino event .

The strong MJO wave has moved East, and Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed near Indonesia and in the western Pacific. Factors related to this like Kelvin Wave and Tropical Cyclones have influenced the convection.

In 2nd and 3rd week of August, our seas can get a "Neutral MJO" condition..
Normally, MJO forecasts are most accurate when the MJO event has started. That is when enhanced convective activity starts developing, and the "wave" propagates Eastwards.

Ocean Nino Index. This index should be +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. Current Index is 0.2.

The Aust. Bureau of Met has given the "Watch" status to the event.Given recent easing in conditions and model outlooks, if an event when occurs, is unlikely to be strong. 

Hence, formation of Proper El Nino difficult to occur before November 2014. 

From Vagaries

Weather Instagram at August 03, 2014 at 01:31PM

#chennai - 1:30pm, hot and hazy noon. Windy at times. Moderate rain expected after 4pm. #weather

from Instagram