El-Nino Status 2014....prepared on 3rd August 2014.

The El Nino 2014 has stalled ! And Neutral Conditions Continue.

ENSO to develop requires the Sea Surface Temperatures to warm up. And the warming should go beyond the +0.5c anomaly. For this, the atmospheric support is needed. And that is suddenly lacking this last 15 days. ENSO can develop into El Nino with the assistance of both the sea and atmospheric parameters.

As a result, the Sea surface temperatures have stopped warming, in fact cooled a bit. Our region concern is the NINO 3.4...it has cooled by 0.3c last 15 days, and that anomaly is near about the long term average.

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) last observed was -5.2. Certainly refraining us from calling it an El Nino event .

The strong MJO wave has moved East, and Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed near Indonesia and in the western Pacific. Factors related to this like Kelvin Wave and Tropical Cyclones have influenced the convection.

In 2nd and 3rd week of August, our seas can get a "Neutral MJO" condition..
Normally, MJO forecasts are most accurate when the MJO event has started. That is when enhanced convective activity starts developing, and the "wave" propagates Eastwards.

Ocean Nino Index. This index should be +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. Current Index is 0.2.

The Aust. Bureau of Met has given the "Watch" status to the event.Given recent easing in conditions and model outlooks, if an event when occurs, is unlikely to be strong. 

Hence, formation of Proper El Nino difficult to occur before November 2014. 

From Vagaries

Weather Instagram at August 03, 2014 at 01:31PM

#chennai - 1:30pm, hot and hazy noon. Windy at times. Moderate rain expected after 4pm. #weather

from Instagram

Special weather bulletein issued by Mauritus Meteorological Department

A strong wind advisory valid Sunday 03 August 2014 at 16h00 until Tuesday 05 August 2014 for Mauritius and Rodrigues.

The aprroach of a strong anti-cyclone from the south-west is strengthening the pressure gradient
over our region, causing cold and gusty winds and a rough sea over Mauritius and Rodrigues.

It is expected that the gusts may reach 80 to 90 km/h over the exposed areas with a temperature
drop of the order of 2 degrees celsius from the seasonal mean.

Ventures in the open seas as well as in the southern lagoons are not advised.
 [This tele-connection with Asian summer monsoon especially SWM of India will be encouraging.] The strengthening of pressure gradient is a good sign.  From that, one can infer that again SWM will be active over west coast especially around (and below)  [+ or -]15 Degree Parallel and equally good in   Bay of Bengal

7:30pm, Super heavy T showers seen over many parts of central,S-E,E Rajasthan... http://ow.ly/i/6q6KI 
7:30pm, more T showers seen ALL along monsoon axis from central Pakistan to Rajasthan, Madhyapradesh, N,central Chatisgarh to Odisha.
7:30pm, Heavy rain continue over Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/6q6KI

8:05pm, "Heavy rain with high winds in Thiruvarur, Tamilnadu"

Chennai - 8:15pm, HEAVY t showers now over N-W from city at 30 to 60km.
Some showers have already pushed into W-N-W suburbs.
Chennai - T showers will push into N,N-W,W-N-W suburbs and some showers will cross city in next 30 to 45min.

Badlapur overall July 2014 Weather.

July 2014 Weather stats

July 2014 Rainfall analysis in chart

RT @aash_tvm: Heavy rains across #Kerala from early morning. @weatherofindia (10:26am)

12:30pm, Heavy showers seen Kerala coast, Karnataka coast, S,S-E,S-W Gujarat... http://ow.ly/i/6pRxx 

Weather Instagram at August 01, 2014 at 11:35AM

#chennai - 10:30am, a clear deep blue sky day. Getting hot. #weather

from Instagram

Mahabaleshwar records 432mm till 8:30am today !

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 1.10pm,  Dark passing clouds, windy, no rain and bandh, empty roads.. http://t.co/fHWRucaQsn 

#Chennai - 5:41pm, another warm and cloudy day coming to end.
Again scattered moderate/light rain expected after 6pm.

#Chennai -5:50pm, Already light rain seen over North suburbs at around 20km from city.

Today, the Bay LOW, low,mid-level circulation is over N Chatisgarh and adjoining Odisha ... http://ow.ly/i/6pbrC 

And the Gujarat low,mid-level circulation is expected to persist over central Gujarat for 24hrs and fizzle out ... http://ow.ly/i/6pbrC 

The mid-level circulation over S,S-E Gujarat is expected to persist for another 2 days according to WRF model... http://ow.ly/i/6pbz3 

Chatisgarh mid-level circulation may not drift W-N-W, instead an another circulation is expected over S Bengal .. http://ow.ly/i/6pbH7 

Saturday, another strong low,mid-level circulation expected over S Bengal along N Bay... http://ow.ly/i/6pbH7

More rain ahead for E India

Today, the west coast offshore trough is active from N Maharastra coast to N Kerala coast, expected to persist for 2 days ! 

Today, the upper-level circulation(s) are seen over N Maharastra coast and over S-central Odisha... http://ow.ly/i/6pbRq 

The Odisha upper-level circulation is expected to weaken, drift, fizzle out over Jharkhand, N Chatisgarh in next 36hrs.

Almost the same case with upper-level (500hpa) circulation along N Maharastra coast ... it'll weaken and may persist till Saturday ! 

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In next 18hrs, widespread showers expected over Chatisgarh, Odisha, N,N-E Andhra, E,N-E Maharastra, E,central,S-E Madhyapradesh.

Till Friday, HEAVY rain along South end of axis from E,S-E Rajasthan to Odisha thru MP, chatisgarh, Jharkhand http://ow.ly/i/6pc8y 

Till Friday evening, HEAVY rain to persist along S,central,S-W,S-E Gujarat !

Scattered rain to continue ALL along Maharastra coast, Mumbai, but the rain intensity is expected to be low from Friday morning.

There's NO relent of rainfall seen along entire Karnataka coast during next 42hrs.

Today after 6pm, Scattered moderate T showers expected over N,N-E,N-central coast of Tamilnadu, #Chennai !