95A and Monsoon !! Heavy rain expected for Karnataka coast, Goa

Previous report about 95A and Monsoon, updated on 8-Jun-2014 can be read here ... http://indianweatherman.blogspot.in/2014/06/080614-95-a.html

As of 11:30am, 95A is still a well marked LOW lying over E-central Arabian sea.
Present position is 12.9N and 67E.
Pressure is around 1000mb as per GFS and 1004mb as per US NAVY analysis.

11:30am, Satellite visible shows ... Heavy convective activity along its W,S,S-W,S-E quadrants.
Satellite also shows the T shower activity over W Bay along N Tamilnadu coast and Andhra coast.
Reduced Rainfall activity over Kerala is also observed.

Forecast for 95A and Monsoon
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GFS predicts that during next 48hrs, "95A" will intensify to Deep Depression and move North or N-N-W upto 19 / 20N.
On 11-Jun, after reaching 19N the system is expected to travel West towards Oman coast.
95A is expected to make landfall along Oman coast as Cyclone on 13/14-Jun.

During next 24hrs, Monsoon is expected to push into Karnataka coast and #Goa as well, but most of moisture will be encircling the LOW pressure system 95A.
From today/tomorrow #Monsoon will be weak along Karnataka, Kerala coast and will be till 95A exhausts itself over Oman coast on 14-Jun.

#Chennai - upper level wind profile suggests that S-W Monsoon current is over city from last evening. 
And from now on, evening T-showers will develop over N-E Tamilnadu and travel into Sea (Bay) crossing Chennai city.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Today, till midnight, Showers expected to persist along Kerala, Karnataka coast.
Today, T showers expected along W,S-W,S,S-central Maharastra, S,central Karnataka, S,central Andhra.
Late evening or Midnight T showers again possible over N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai.
Late evening T shower possible over #Bangalore as well.

On 10-Jun, Due to 95A and Monsoon, HEAVY rain expected along Karnataka coast and #Goa.
Afternoon of 10-Jun can witness T showers over W Maharastra and an Odd one may pop into #Mumbai as well.
By evening, late evening - T showers expected over central,E Gujarat, central Maharastra, S,S-central Karnataka, S,central,N-E Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu.

On the eastern front, scattered T showers to continue over N-E states of India, Sikkim, N Bengal and over N,N-E Bihar on today, 10-Jun.
On 10-Jun, T showers expected along S-W Bengal and E Jharkhand.

#Chennai - Early hour Thunder squall and heavy rainfall.
IWM weather station at Polichalur records 78.3mm upto 8:30am today.

#Chennai - 9:30am, Still some Thunder cells are alive over W,W-N-W zones near to city ... http://ow.ly/i/5Q3aF 
More on this coming up...

080614 95 A

 [1] The power source  is oscillating.

[2] The cross equatorial winds are NOT touching horn of Africa nor in strength and Arabian Sea branch is again going to be weak.  

[3] The 95A [a WML] will be drawing winds from Indian Ocean and Kerala Coast will be gradually free from monsoon rains.

[4] Similarly formation of UAC in the Bay may be evident due to the weakened strength of monsoonal flow in the Bay.

[5] 95 A may be of the same status with 1007 hPa and move in west and NWly direction.


[6] The surface level trough in EAST coast [may be called as monsoon trough] is not as feeble as compared to its counter part in Arabian Sea.


[7] Soon Depression may develop and it will move in west and nWly direction to cross EAST coast to give rainfall in coastal AP

Amazing Thunderstorm infornt of Cumulonimbus cloud 1 june 2014 Kabarwala...

11:30am, Monsoon showers seen along N,central Kerala coast.. overall a weak setting so far... http://ow.ly/i/5PlZ2 
11:30am, Showers seen along Karnataka coast as well ... http://ow.ly/i/5PlZ2

RT @sabusijo: Heavy rain in #Alappuzha #Kerala (12:09pm)

As of today morning, the monsoon current is seen upto N Kerala coast, and it may push into Karnataka coast in 24hrs http://ow.ly/i/5Pm1f 
Today, a circulation is seen over S-central Arabian sea along 10 and 15th parallel .... http://ow.ly/i/5Pm3u 

The Arabian sea LOW is expected to deepen and track North and cross 15N in next 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/5Pm55 
By 9/10-Jun, the Arabian sea circulation is expected to drift West after reaching 19N... http://ow.ly/i/5PmeU 

By 10-Jun, a weak Monsoon current may reach #Goa !
Due to Arabian sea circulation, Monsoon strength along Kerala coast is expected to weaken after 9/10-Jun !

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Today as well intermittent showers expected to persist for Kerala coast and S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5PmkF 
By evening, into midnight, T showers expected over W,S-W,central,S Karnataka, N-W,N,N-E Tamilnadu, S,W Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/5PmmG 
#Chennai - Today after 5pm, T showers possible for W,S-W,N-W suburbs.
#Bangalore - can expect a T shower towards late-evening today.

On 8-Jun, Rain strength along Kerala coast is expected to reduce.
Afternoon of 8-Jun can witness T.showers along W,N-W,S-W,S-central,S Karnataka and into S,S-W Andhra.
Tomorrow as well, late-evening T showers expected along N,N-E Tamilnadu upto Chennai and into S Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/5Pmzu 

RT @IamKanal: Its Showering for last 3 hours with little lightning at kochi..   http://t.co/iFqXiMaVYD (6-Jun, 11:08pm)

RT @Asalraam: @weatherofindia its been partly cloudy with occasional drizzling n strong wind gusts for a couple of days here at kanyakumari 

Weather Instagram at June 06, 2014 at 04:21PM

#chennai - 4:15pm, now T showers seen at 50 to 120km west from city. #weather

from Instagram

#Chennai - 4pm, T showers seen over West at around 50 to 120km from city ... http://ow.ly/i/5OEjV 

RT @GanpatTeli1: Super #HOT Delhi today... @weatherofindia http://t.co/y9lNpXoZeN

Posted Friday afternoon:

South West Monsoon advancing into Kerala on Friday 6th June. The Monsoon move into Coastal and S.I. Karnataka and Southern TN by Sunday, 8th June.
Mumbai Monsoon around 14th...Saurashtra and Bharuch get their showers after 15th June..

Low pressure likely to form off the Kerala coast on 7th June. It can intensify first to a weel marked low and then depression. As a depression, it can be positioned due West off Goa by the 9th/10th of June. There is a trough in the 700 hpa level along the 19N line. System could get embedded in the trough. If so, then a) it can strengthen and move due West. b) If the rough gets weak by the 9th/10th, then the system will also weaken and move NW and dissipate.
Some models show a) and some b) as a possibility.
City wise on vagaries