The feared "El Nino" - South West Monsoon killer !!
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El Nino and IOD update by BOM on 8-Apr-2014...
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.
Taken from http://www.bom.gov.au/
Central, N-W India Heat LOW.
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As of today, the Central, East, N-W India LOW is around 1006mb.
This heat low is expected to deepen to around 994mb by end of May.
At present the progress is moderate, due to less heating over N,N-W India marred by successive Western Disturbances.
North South inland low-level trough or Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD).
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At this time, the North South low-level trough or line of wind discontinuity is expected to be established from Central,E-central India to South Kerala, South Tamilnadu.
Today, the circulation is seen over S-E Madhyapradesh and trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu and expected to persist during next 2 days, and it has to persist even more.
Bay and Arabian sea surface temperature.
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Sea surface temperature of S,S-W,S-E Arabian sea is around 30 C
Same as the case with S,S-W,S-E Bay.
Bay LOW pressure.
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South Bay is expected to pop a LOW pressure system before end of April.
But latest models suggest NO Bay low till end of April.
Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
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Generator or Monsoon winds, the "Mascarene high pressure system" in far South Indian ocean.
At present the core pressure is around 1028mb (expected to be around 1034mb by mid May) and positioned slightly to the East.
JAMSTEC (Japan) Long Range Forecast.
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BAD News !!
Long range forecast model suggests below normal rains for most of India, except for South tip, Central and Eastern zones.
IMD monsoon forecast coming up on 25-Apr-2014
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El Nino and IOD update by BOM on 8-Apr-2014...
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.
Taken from http://www.bom.gov.au/
Central, N-W India Heat LOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As of today, the Central, East, N-W India LOW is around 1006mb.
This heat low is expected to deepen to around 994mb by end of May.
At present the progress is moderate, due to less heating over N,N-W India marred by successive Western Disturbances.
North South inland low-level trough or Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
At this time, the North South low-level trough or line of wind discontinuity is expected to be established from Central,E-central India to South Kerala, South Tamilnadu.
Today, the circulation is seen over S-E Madhyapradesh and trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu and expected to persist during next 2 days, and it has to persist even more.
Bay and Arabian sea surface temperature.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sea surface temperature of S,S-W,S-E Arabian sea is around 30 C
Same as the case with S,S-W,S-E Bay.
Bay LOW pressure.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
South Bay is expected to pop a LOW pressure system before end of April.
But latest models suggest NO Bay low till end of April.
Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Generator or Monsoon winds, the "Mascarene high pressure system" in far South Indian ocean.
At present the core pressure is around 1028mb (expected to be around 1034mb by mid May) and positioned slightly to the East.
The winds from the Mascarene high pressure system is expected to reach Equator by around end of 10-May. At present strong winds are just about starting from the system.
JAMSTEC (Japan) Long Range Forecast.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAD News !!
Long range forecast model suggests below normal rains for most of India, except for South tip, Central and Eastern zones.
IMD monsoon forecast coming up on 25-Apr-2014
