During next 3 days, the minimum / night / morning temperature is expected to take a DIP over N,N-W,N-central India.

For S,S-central Peninsula.. the DAY temperature is expected to be on higher side, meanwhile the min temp is expected to DIP more. !

COLD night temp. over N,N-central, N-W Tamilnadu, S Andhra and S Karnataka is expected to continue for next 3 days. May dip even more by 1 C

#Cold #Chennai morning today - Nungambakkam = 19.5 C and IWM Polichalur station = 18.9 °C

Today, Najibabad (West Uttar Pradesh) records a low temperature of 5.5 C

6:30pm, Heavy snow/rain seen over most of Kashmir and into Himachal ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRlo 
6:30pm, cloudy over Punjab, N,N-W,N-E Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, #Delhi and W Uttarpradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRlo

Mid level W.D trough and circulation is now over N,central Pakistan and slowly pushing towards India ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRs5 
During next 24 to 36hrs, the W.D system is expected to push across N,N-W India.
From night of 7-Feb, the W.D moisture is expected to drift into E,E-central India ... cloudy weather with some moderate rain expected!
The W.D trough is expected to push moisture into E,E-central India on 8-Feb and persist till 9-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRBi 

Scattered rain expected over Punjab, N,N-E Rajasthan, Haryana, #Delhi and into W Uttarpradesh during next 36hrs.
Snow is expected to be over most of Kashmir till Sunday !

In 24hrs, Heavy rain or snow predicted for Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/tlmrE 
#COLD Kashmir, Kargil freezes at -16.4 C ... http://ow.ly/tlmAC 

Another mid level trough North-South along 70E and dipping south upto 25N is expected on 10/11-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/4vROu

North India, minimum temperature are above normal in most places... Gorakhpur (Uttar Pradesh) records 8.1 C, while Phulbani (Odisha) = 6.8 C

Fresh snowfall forces closure of Srinagar-Jammu national highway... http://ow.ly/tiNlb 

The mid level trough, circulation of W.D is expected to come close to N,N-W India in next 24hrs... http://ow.ly/i/4v8vi 

On 6-Feb, scattered rain expected over N,N-W Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and into W,N-W Uttarpradesh.. http://ow.ly/i/4v8An 
On 6,7-Feb, HEAVY snow expected over most of Kashmir and into upper reaches of Himachal and Uttarakhand... http://ow.ly/i/4v8An
#Delhi - can expect a CLOUDY day on 6,7-Feb, with a possibility of #rain on 6th night and on 7-Feb.

Minimum temperatures across N,N-W,N-central India is expected to DIP again from Friday !
At present its above normal.

#Chennai - Today morning it was cold, Airport = 18.7 C.
Some other low temperatures recorded today over N Tamilnadu are... Dharmapuri = 15.5 C, Vellore = 16.4 C, Salem = 17.4 C

On 4-Feb, Day temperatures across Tamilnadu has increased... Salem = 34.8 C, Karur = 34.2 C and Palayamkottai = 34.1 C

#Bangalore = Day temperature on 4-Feb was 32 C (#Hot and +3 C above normal) and today morning it was 16 C.
S-W coast of India continues to have #HOT days ... Karwar = 36 C, Mumbai = 31.2 C, Goa = 34.4 C

There's NO dip expected in Day temperature over most of S,central Peninsula during next 6 days !

#Chennai - After a Warm (30 C) day on 3-Feb, today morning it was around 20.2 C in Airport.

#Chennai - Today as well another DRY, Hazy and Warm day !
More WARM days and 21 C morning ahead till 8-Feb.

#Chennai - A final phase of day (28/29 C) and night (18/19 C) temperature DIP expected after 8-Feb !

For Tamilnadu, NO easterlies or moisture push from S,S-W,S-E Bay expected during next 6 days !

4pm, Satellite visible shows most of Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand and N,W Punjab is cloudy ... http://ow.ly/i/4upjw 

Strong W.D ahead for N,N-central,N-W India till 7-Feb

Kashmir Valley lashed by rain, higher reaches receive snow ... http://ow.ly/tg9Eb 
Mercury continues to rise in north India; rainfall, snow in J&K ... http://ow.ly/tg9Me 

Rainfall in North India till 8:30am today, due to present W.D system..
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: Kupwara 4, Banihal, Batote and Gulmarg 3 each, Qazigund, Katra and Bhaderwah 2 cm
HIMACHAL PRADESH: Manali 3 cm.

Today's low temperature over North India was recorded at Amristar = 7 C.
Surprisingly, Phulbani (Odisha) records a low temp of 5.8 C as well

The present W.D affecting North India has almost cleared out ... another is expected to reach N,N-W India tonight.. http://ow.ly/i/4umfc 
Next, W.D is expected to be a strong system and expected to last till 7-Jan ... http://ow.ly/i/4umiF 

From tonight till 7-Feb, HEAVY and widespread rain expected for Kashmir, Himachal, N Punjab and Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/4unPI
During next 3 days, Heavy snowfall also expected over Kashmir and upper reaches of Himachal as well.
From 5-Feb to 7-Feb, scattered rain expected over Punjab, Haryana, W,N-W Uttarpradesh and over N,N-W,N-E Rajasthan.
#Delhi - is expected to be Cloudy from tomorrow with showers expected on 6,7-Feb.

What is El-Nino, La-Nina and Normal Scenario >>>..Simplified

The name El Niño is believed to have been coined in the 19th century after Peruvian fisherman observed it around Christmas – the word is Spanish for "boy", in reference to the infant Jesus Christ. La Niña, the word for "girl", was devised later to label the reverse phenomenon.Both are significant markers of global climate fluctuations.

In Normal Scenario, In the vast Pacific Ocean, the water goes West from the Peru Coastline. So does the air. Why? Because the surface of the ocean is joined to the bottom of the air. Now the water is an easterly current going to the west, and so is the air, and this produces easterly winds. Easterly winds bring moisture from the sea and by the time they arrive on the Australian coast they are rain-laden.

The combi-nation of cooler easterlies and lower pressure brings rain. This is the NORMAL situation. 

But it doesn't last. The movement of water to the left eventually makes the sea level higher on the left, just as a very slow-moving ripple wave would in a bath. When it gets to a critical height difference, about 62cms, it wants to go the other way. Slowly the water starts flowing to the RIGHT. Higher pressure now is on the LEFT, above Australia. And higher pressure flows towards lower pressure.The water is joined to the air and produces westerlies. The warmer water arrives at Peru and is called El Niño.
During an El Niño event, the easterly trade winds converging across the equatorial Pacific weaken.  This in turn slows the ocean current that draws surface water away from the western coast of South America and reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient–rich water from the deeper ocean, flattening out the thermocline and allowing warm surface water to buld in the eastern part of the basin.

El Niño occurs every two to seven years, when the trade winds that circulate surface water in the tropical Pacific start to weaken. The result is a major shift in rainfall, bringing floods and mudslides to usually arid countries in western South America and drought in the western Pacific, as well as a change in nutrient-rich ocean currents that lure fish and make them migrate.

The last El Niño lasted from June 2009 to May 2010.

An enhancement of the "normal situation" is La Nina. Same winds and flow, but stronger. Averaging about 2-3 years after the normal occurance.
El Niño is often followed by a reverse swing  with La Niña, characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In fact, very simply put, when the normal situation reaches its maximum point it is called La Niña. 
The last La Nina ended in April 2012.

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Southern Oscillation compares variation in sea level barometric pressure between observation stations at Darwin, Australia and Tahiti.  It is quantified in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is a standardized difference between the two barometric pressures.  Normally, lower pressure over Darwin and higher pressure over Tahiti encourages a circulation of air from east to west, drawing warm surface water westward and bringing precipitation to Australia and the western Pacific.  When the pressure difference weakens, which is strongly coincidental with El Niño conditions,
Although the exact initiating causes of an ENSO warm or cool event are not fully understood, the two components of ENSO – sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure are strongly related.  

The strengthening and weakening of the trade winds is a function of changes in the pressure gradient of the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific.  Ironically, the warming of the sea surface works to decrease the atmospheric pressure above it by transferring more heat to the atmosphere and making it more buoyant.  So, in summary, the pressure gradient affects the sea surface temperatures, and the sea surface temperatures affect the pressure gradient.

Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks, though this is thought to be largely due to short term local weather variations rather than larger scale climate shifts. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 26 January is +10.0.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.


Current Position:
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is -0.3 °C. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value to 26 January is +10.0. 
Negative OLR anomalies  were observed over Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the 
equatorial western Pacific. Positive OLR anomalies were evident over the central equatorial Pacific. 
Low-level (850-hPa) winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific. 

ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across much of the 
Pacific Ocean, with regions of below average SST in the east-central Pacific. 

What is the Positional Outlook this year  ? Specially for the South West Monsoon -2014 ? WMO cautions forecasters-" "Some caution should be exercised when using long-range outlooks made at this time for the middle of the year and beyond," it said

Some International Outlooks:

--"Current model outlooks further suggest an enhanced possibility of the development of a weak El Niño around the middle of 2014," the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

-- For the first few months of this year, meanwhile, the WMO said there was a slight possibility of a weak and brief appearance of the El Niño's mirror image La Nina, which cools the ocean.

-- But overall, there is a strong likelihood that conditions in the Pacific will remain neutral, with neither an El Niño or La Nina observed.

-- Climate models suggest an ENSO-neutral state to persist until at least the end of March, with some warming of the tropical Pacific likely.
-- Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by early Summer.
-- The picture for the remainder of the year remains hazy, the WMO underlined.

-- Vagaries estimates a neutral State till April/May. Now, we are concerned with the SWM position, and remember, if you go through the MW series (archives), then, ENSO or El-Nino is one of the important parametres for the South West Monsoon.
Vagaries estimates a slight tendency to warm of the SST off the Peru Coast and NinO 3.4 to warm up after June/July. ENSO can be on the threshold of El-Nino in June /July, and may show El-Nino tendency after July/August.

Now, we hear from the famous Global Warming quarters...Climate change will cause severe Ninos and Ninas...Wow !..Meteorologists, who understand the science of climate, will vouch for the fact that : The two climate patterns are are not caused by climate change, but cause climate changes !
That's all there is to it. It has nothing to do with global warming, climate change, what make of lightbulbs we should be using. Nor does El Niño slow or speed up global warming, anymore than a wave on the ocean can control a current beneath. It is merely one of the giant cycles that rule the planet.
from vagaries
Excerpts from:Ken Ring  (Predict Weather.com)
ncdc NASA and NOAA. and from  Bur of Met Aust, www.geocurrents.infoand ,http://instructional1.calstatela.edu/

Wet, snowy days ahead for Kashmir till 6-Feb

11:30am, Thick FOG cover seen from Punjab to Bihar today as well ... http://ow.ly/i/4sHqN 
11:30am, Getting cloudy over Kashmir due to approaching W.D system ... http://ow.ly/i/4sHqN

Due to W.D, moderate / heavy rain or snow expected for Kashmir, Himachal from tonight to 5-Feb... http://ow.ly/i/4sHuJ 
On 2,3-Feb - scattered moderate to heavy rain expected over Punjab, N,N-W Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakhand http://ow.ly/i/4sHuJ
For #Delhi - weather is expected to be cloudy from tomorrow with a chance of rain on 3,4-Feb.

Today's W.D system may be followed immediately by another system... expected to be WET days ahead for N,N-W,N-central India till 5/6-Feb !!

After 2-Feb, S,S-E,S-W Bay is expected to be DRY with NO easterlies expected till 6-Feb.
No rain for Srilanka as well !

A small rise in day temperature expected from 3-Feb over most of S,central Peninsula !

GFS plots isolated shower over N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai before Sunday noon !!
Due to a weak mid level circulation along S,central Andhra
The weak mid (700hpa) level circulation along S,S-W,S-central Andhra is expected to persist during next 36hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/4scHW 

And isolated moderate rain may pop along S,S-E Tamilnadu coast as well on 1,2-Feb.