92B - Now a depression after 4 days.

Analysis at 11:30am suggest that "92B" is slowly taking a good shape and it has intensified during past 12hrs.
Now it can be termed as a "Depression".
Pressure is around 1000mb
Winds gusting to 55 kmph.
Presently the center of the system is located over S-W Bay near to E-N-E coast of Srilanka.
Latest position is plotted here ...






















Here's the latest wind analysis of 92B.

Visible satellite shot at 1pm shows, deep convective activity over its N,N-E,S-E quadrants and bands.
And heavy T cells visible vear near to S-E,Central Tamilnadu coast.

Most of the models suggest a initial drift to N-W during next 2 days and then continue to intensify and move North along Tamilnadu coast.
And the latest upper level (above 500hpa) wind direction analysis is supporting this view.

During next 24hrs, due to "92B", scattered rain expected along N,central,S-E coast of Tamilnadu.
Scattered T showers also possible over South Tamilnadu as well.
#Chennai can expect showers during late evening today or midnight.
ALL these warnings WILL change IF 92B drifts N-W during next 12hrs.

92B is slowly shaping  upon now.
Pressure around 1004mb
Located  over E.S.E  Srilanka  coast.

Badlapur had drizzling shower for 30mins @ 7pm today.

#Chennai - 8:45pm, now having a slightly COLD and DRY evening with temp around 25.2 C.
NO rain forecast for next 12hrs.

8:30pm, "92B" seems to be getting its circulation organized now ... good convective activity seen around the system http://ow.ly/i/3VbDZ 
5:30pm, "92B" - analysis suggests that the pressure has dropped to 1004mb and located S-E of Srilanka over S-W Bay.

UPCOMING CYCLONE IN 1ST WEEK OF DEC 2013 in BAY OF BENGAL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh2OjzISFnM

This system seems becoming tricky as we , see , 
now this system seems , giving sufficient rains for TN coast from 5th dec night to 7th dec ... , with it it also seems it would eventually for into a cyclone storm and than into a cat - 1 TC ....

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 1.45pm, Dry, Sunny with nice chill breeze, sky dotted with passing clouds., sky pic.. http://t.co/5dJtcQMKNY 

"Still" 92B

92B is taking too long to consolidate or dissipate ... meanwhile more showers ahead for central,S-E Tamilnadu coast in next 24hrs.

#Chennai - 1:24pm, A mild day so far with temp around 29 C. Breezy at times from morning.

S,S-E,central coast of Tamilnadu gets heavy rain till 8:30am today ... Rameswaram records 8 CM.
Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist) 7, Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist) and  Nagapattinam (Nagapattinam Dist) 6 each, Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist), Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist) and  Orthanad (Thanjavur Dist) 5 each, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist), Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist) and  Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist) 4 each, Aduthurai AWS (Thanjavur Dist), Mannargudi (Tiruvarur Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist) and  Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist) 3 each

11:30am, Position of 92B is 6.9 N, 83.2 E and pressure around 1007mb ... Almost NO movement, NO intensification seen http://ow.ly/i/3UYCE 

But, latest wind analysis suggests that the circulation has drifted to South of Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/3UYJT 
92B, Most of the models still suggest a "Intensification" and "N-N-W drift" during next 2 days !!

#Chennai - Almost NO rain expected for city during next 24hrs. DRY conditions expected with breeze from N-N-E

92B update

5:30pm, Wind analysis show that present location of circulation is around N-E Srilanka coast, NO intensification .. http://ow.ly/i/3UoYG 
Wind analysis also show above 20kt Wind concentration along N,central Tamilnadu coast... this will push in more showers along coast in 15hrs
As per the latest analysis by NRLMRY of 92B has shown "Signs of Weakening" and located at "6.1N, 82.2E", Pressure still around "1007 mb"

Cold wave conditions return to Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/roCeo 

#COLD morning for N India .. Ludhiana = 9 C, Jodhpur = 11 C, Lucknow = 6 C, New Delhi = 9 C

Why "92B" can move N,N-E ?

At present the upper level (above 500hpa) wind direction above 10th parallel is towards N-N-E and N-E ... http://ow.ly/i/3Uhx5 
These upper level winds can act as steering winds for "92B" and if the system moves above 10th parallel then there is a good possibility for it to drift N,N-E away from Tamilnadu coast.
At present (2pm), 92B is located at 8.3 N, 82.6 E as a LOW pressure system.

92B is still a LOW and almost over same location.

#Chennai - rainfall till 8:30am today, Nungambakkam = 52.5mm, Airport = 55.8mm and Polichalur (IWM station @iwmpolichalur ) = 28.2mm
#Chennai - 1:58pm, partly cloudy and warm with less signs of rain till evening.

Heavy rainfall along most of Tamilnadu coast till morning, Pamban = 98.1mm, Cuddalore = 43.4mm, Puducherry = 32mm, Nagapattinam = 54.3mm

1:30pm, mini showers popping again over central coast and adjoining interior central Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3UeRq
 1:30pm, "92B" is still a LOW and almost NO intensification seen.
Pressure around 1007mb.
Located E-coast Srilanka .. http://ow.ly/i/3UeRq

NAVGEM model expects 92B to become as D.Depression on 5-Dec and drift N-E away from Srilanka coast ... http://ow.ly/i/3Uf4v 
GFS also expects 92B to become as Cyclone / D.Depression on 5-Dec after drifting N-E away from Srilanka coast .. http://ow.ly/i/3Uf8N 
But, WRF model suggests that 92B will drift West into S Srilanka and into mouth of Gulf Mannar on 5-Dec ... http://ow.ly/i/3UfcR 

During next 24hrs, moderate rain expected along central,S-E Tamilnadu coast and over adjoining interior zones.
Showers also expected over W-ghats Tamilnadu and over S tamilnadu in next 24hrs.
#Chennai - can expect only light / moderate rain till morning of Wednesday.

" IF " after 24hrs, 92B concentrates into a Depression and drifts N-E... then LESS showers expected over most of Tamilnadu, #Chennai.
" IF ", 92B drifts North or N-W after 24hrs... then more HEAVY rain expected for S-E,central,N Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.