Central Maharastra Ant-cyclone is strong, sweeping dry winds from N-W India into N,W,central Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/1aOdI

IMD GFS expects the circulation over S-E Bay to move N-W into Bay and vanish over central Bay around 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOfI

But NOGAPS still persists with a D.Depression formation and movement towards Tamilnadu coast by 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOht

Whichever way the LOW moves in next 3 days.. most of Tamilnadu, #chennai will be DRY till 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOES 

Today the expected circulation has entered into Andaman seas.. http://ow.ly/i/1aN5s

Present circulation over S-E Bay extends upto upper levels .. http://ow.ly/i/1aN9I 

W.D is nearing Kashmir and N.Pakistan .. will reach W,S-W Kashmir by mid-morning of 28-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1aN3F

During next 2 days, rain or snow forecast for Kashmir and Himachal due to W.D .. http://ow.ly/i/1aN80 

#chennai - 4pm, having a dry day with medium high cloud cover. No sunlight for most of the day today. Mild breeze from N-N-E. Temp. now 29 C

A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E. 
In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.
Let me stress, that is the synoptic situation today, and my track estimate is based on this scenario.

More in Vagaries...

Night temp for N,N-W,N-central India will be a bit higher from tomorrow due to the upcoming W.D .. It'll be normal again from 29/30-Nov.

Almost NO rain forecast for entire peninsula from 28-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/1axTN

A moderate W.D will reach W,S-W Kashmir by tomorrow evening .. and expected to persist with Rain/Snow for 2 days.. http://ow.ly/i/1axWG 

COLA suggests that Maharastra Anti-cyclone will persist till 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1axM8

COLA even predicts that the anti-cyclone will make the entire peninsula DRY from 28-Nov .. http://ow.ly/i/1axM8 

More showers expected for S,S-E Tamilnadu tonight and before tomorrow late evening ... http://ow.ly/i/1axHP 

5pm, Showers slowly creeping into S.Tamilnadu again from Gulf Mannar ... http://ow.ly/i/1awlB