"93W" and "96A" - update

7:30am, "93W" is showing good signs of strengthening.
From Yesterday evening the system is maintaining a core.
Crawled W-S-W in last 6 hrs.
Pressure is at 1004mb.
Showers has started along Central Tamilnadu coast.
Now, Showers seen along Mahabalipuram coast as well near Chennai.
Just 15 min back even Chennai had a drizzle !

Meanwhile S-E Arabian sea LOW is also marked for tracking.
Marked as "96A"

28 Oct 2012 cloud mass

This is the latest cloud imagery.  Cloud have entered Coramandal coast [i.e between Kodiyakarai and Cuddalore] It will batter the coast.  The other cloud mass is at about 550km east of this coast.  As the 200hPa ridge is just above 13 Deg N latitude it can be presumed that cloud mass will move due WEST only and hit this coast

"93W" is now having "Almost a core"

10:30pm, "93W" over S-central Bay now have "Almost a core" ... still pressure is near 1006mb and tracking West.
Showers seen very near to Central Tamilnadu coast.
If the track continues to be West, then showers may break over central Tamilnadu coast during early hours of Sunday.

7:30pm, Latest on "93B" .. now its over S-central Bay and lots of convective activity seen.. Still a low pressure.. http://ow.ly/i/1485h 

Tropical Cyclone Murjan

Tropical Cyclone Murjan made landfall on the Horn of Africa on October 25, 2012, as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image. The storm lacked the distinct eye and spiral shape characteristic of strong storms, but its clouds still spanned hundreds of kilometers.

Murjan was not a powerful storm. The U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported wind speeds of just 35 knots (65 kilometers per hour), but although the storm did not bring high winds, it did bring heavy rains. AccuWeather reported that severe thunderstorms soaked Somalia ahead of the cyclone, and continued rain was expected for northern Somalia. Heavy rains and potential flash floods were also expected for Djibouti and eastern Ethiopia.

Taken from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Showers expected to start ALL along Tamilnadu coast & #Chennai from Sunday !

S.Tamilnadu coast to get more rain till morning of 29-Oct.. and more widespread and HEAVY after that !

Next W.D is expected to reach W.Kashmir on 31-Oct..!

From early hrs of 29-Oct till 31-Oct.. HEAVY rain forecast ALL along Tamilnadu coast... http://ow.ly/i/146zN 

IMD-GFS expects the Bay circulation to be a LOW system while the Arabian sea system to become as a strong Cyclone.. http://ow.ly/i/146tY

Now almost ALL models suggest a N,N-E.Srilanka landfall for Bay LOW on 29-Oct ... http://ow.ly/i/146uM 

S-S-E Arabian sea circulation persists and expected to intensify and move W-N-W .. http://ow.ly/i/146sL

The presence & intensification of S-S-E Arabian sea circulation may drag the Bay circulation to drift W-S-W .. http://ow.ly/i/146t7 

2:30pm, Latest location of S-central Bay low "93W" is 11.7N , 88.7E .. Pressure at 1007mb .. http://ow.ly/i/146rt

By 29-Oct.. the circulation over Bay is expected to become strong and hit N,N-E.Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/146rV

NOGAPS suggests that the circulation in Bay, from its present location is expected to drift W-S-W towards N.Srilanka in next 24hrs.

If the Bay circulation strengthens further.. then DRY conditions will prevail along N,central Tamilnadu coast, #chennai till midnight 28-Oct