5:30pm, Showers seen over S-W.Karnataka, N,central Kerala.. Meanwhile S-E Bay circulation persists .. http://ow.ly/i/13EXd 

Low level circulation is over S-E corner Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/13DdR

S-E Bay circulation is expected to move W-N-W and then West.. IMD-GFS expects it to be a Depression and reach N-N-E.Srilanka on 29-Oct.

IMD-GFS model forecast of circulation on 29-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13Dfl

IMD-GFS expects the present S-E.Bay circulation to become as a Marked LOW and nothing more .. on 29-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13Dgg

N-E monsoon current is expected to pick strength along N,central Tamilnadu coast by noon of 27-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13Dhz 

3:30pm, Cyclone Murjan is sliding S-W and still very near to Somalia coast .. http://ow.ly/i/13DcF 

NOGAPS still persists with a Depression from Bay to hit Central/N.Tamilnadu coast on 29/30-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13Cw8 

Latest NOGAPS suggests that monsoon moisture will be back along Tamilnadu coast on evening of 27-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13Cve 

Today's moisture along N.Tamilnadu coast & #chennai will vanish in next 12hrs.. and almost NO rain forecast till 28-Oct

From today evening almost NO rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu & Kerala till 27/28-Oct.

Cyclone Murjan will cross into Somalia by evening, Today ... http://ow.ly/i/13Cs8 

RT @aknarendranath: #Delhi - Mercury dips to 16.4°C, nip in the air here to stay - TOI http://t.co/c52ITzWh @weatherofindia 

The low pressure in the Bay is now situated at 10N and 96.5 E. Core pressure at 1007 mb, it has entered the Bay area, hence vagaries numbers it as BB-10.
BB-10 is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c. 

Now, as we have earlier discussed possibilities of the tracks before, the WD factor seems to be out of question as far as the timing of this BB-10 is concerned. 
There is no WD coming.
In fact, what is favourable for TN is the possibility of a High pressure developing around the Bangladesh region. 
With this, we could very well see BB-10 tracking due West...and hope for good rains along TN and AP areas when it reaches land, as system can strengthen upto depression at least.

more on vagaries.

Cyclone "Murjan" previously "95B" .. Very close to Somalia

12pm, Latest on Cyclone "Murjan".
Now it's very close to Somalia.
Already heavy rain has started over N,E coast of Somalia.

Position ::  10.3N , 52.2E
Pressure ::  996mb
Winds ::   65 km/hr

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
--------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (MURJAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242151Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CENTRAL 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES 
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLIES 
TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE HORN OF AFRICA, MAKING 
LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED 
BEFORE BEING DISSIPATED BY LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THE SOLID STEERING 
MECHANISM AND THE PERSISTENCE IN STORM MOTION; FORECAST CONFIDENCE 
REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET