Cyclone "Murjan" previously "95B" .. Very close to Somalia

12pm, Latest on Cyclone "Murjan".
Now it's very close to Somalia.
Already heavy rain has started over N,E coast of Somalia.

Position ::  10.3N , 52.2E
Pressure ::  996mb
Winds ::   65 km/hr

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (MURJAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242151Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CENTRAL 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES 
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLIES 
TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE HORN OF AFRICA, MAKING 
LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED 
BEFORE BEING DISSIPATED BY LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THE SOLID STEERING 
MECHANISM AND THE PERSISTENCE IN STORM MOTION; FORECAST CONFIDENCE 
REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET

6pm, "95B" is crawling towards Somalia and No intensification seen in past 6hrs.. position 10.7N,57.9E.. http://ow.ly/i/13pS0 

95% of Tamilnadu did not have any Rain till now 6:15pm today !

By tomorrow, showers will go dry over most of tamilnadu except over S.tip Tamilnadu & Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/13o9K

From 25-Oct evening till 28-Oct.. there's almost NO chance of rain for most of Tamilnadu.. except for S.tip Tamilnadu. http://ow.ly/i/13oao

During next 2 or 3 days, some showers expected for Kerala, isolated for W,N-W.Karnataka and into W,S-W.Maharastra.

No W.D forecast for Kashmir till 28-Oct !

#chennai - 2:30pm, the N-E monsoon current has slowed down considerably.. http://ow.ly/i/13o6R 

#chennai - rainfall till 8:30am today, Nungambakkam = 37.9mm and Airport = 24.8mm

Upcoming Cyclone/Depression.. Now both IMD-GFS and NOGAPS predicts a Depression to come near to central Tamilnadu coast,N.Srilanka on 30-Oct

Here's the NOGAPS model for 30-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13nFz

Here's the IMD-GFS model for 30-Oct ... http://ow.ly/i/13nH8

Both the models agree that the upcoming system may not become as a Cyclone.

NOGAPS expects the "95B" to hit Somalia coast on 26-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/13nyX

Today the low level circulation is over Indian ocean near S.tip of Tamilnadu .. expected to move into S-E Arabian sea in next 24hrs.

For N,Central Tamilnadu coast.. some showers expected till midnight today and almost NO rain forecast from Tomorrow.

A strong low level circulation has entered into S-E corner Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/13nEa 

12pm, A circulation is entering into S-E corner Bay .. And S.Tamilnadu to get more rain today .. http://ow.ly/i/13nuU

 12pm, Almost a  cyclone is nearing Somalia coast .. http://ow.ly/i/13nuU

"95B" - Nearing Somalia almost as a Cyclone -- Update #1

12:30pm, Latest position of this W-central Arabian sea system.
Now it's almost a cyclone.
Wind = 45 km/h
Pressure = 1000mb
Position = 11N, 59.6E

JTWC warning at 1:30am IST
--------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 61.7E, IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 
FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY 
INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. A 231514Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 230830Z OSCAT IMAGE ALSO  
DEPICTS RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS 
IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND 
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.