12:30pm, Latest position of this W-central Arabian sea system.
Now it's almost a cyclone.
Wind = 45 km/h
Pressure = 1000mb
Position = 11N, 59.6E
JTWC warning at 1:30am IST
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Now it's almost a cyclone.
Wind = 45 km/h
Pressure = 1000mb
Position = 11N, 59.6E
JTWC warning at 1:30am IST
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 61.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. A 231514Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 230830Z OSCAT IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
