Wet spell forecast for South on New Year eve .. http://ow.ly/89OaR (From The Hindu Business Line)

"92B" - Will it intensify to Depression and approach Tamilnadu coast ?? ... http://ow.ly/89O9O

chennai - is having COLD breezy Christmas evening .. Morning low temp. was 19.7 C (6:13am)

chennai - Strong cold winds from N-N-E now 3:59pm with Cloudy with LOW cloud cover and temp. is at 26.6 deg C

Wet spell forecast for South on New Year eve

Organised rains, long overdue over extreme south peninsula, may be on the way during the week ending Friday next (December 30).

This would happen as a fresh easterly wave drifts in across the Bay of Bengal and starts affecting the region from Saturday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said.

It is likely that the rains may spill into the New Year as well, according to an extended outlook of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.

An IMD outlook for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers would break out at a few places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and south Tamil Nadu and at one or two places over the rest of extreme south peninsular India.

An Insat imagery on Friday afternoon located convective clouds rising over parts of south Tamil Nadu, south and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and the Comorin area.

An existing trough in the easterlies had shifted bearing west to over the Comorin area and Lakshadweep.

ISOLATED RAINS

Thundershowers have been reported at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and at one or two places over Lakshadweep during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. Meanwhile, dense fog to cold wave conditions persisted over respectively over east and north-west India during this period.

Fog to dense fog hung heavy over many parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal while it was ‘shallow' over Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh. Cold wave conditions prevailed over parts of Punjab, Haryana, east Uttar Pradesh and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan.

COLD WAVE

Minimum temperatures fell by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over some parts of north Rajasthan and Haryana.

Dense to very dense fog would continue to prevail over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal for two more days. Shallow fog has been forecast for pockets of Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh during the morning hours during next 24 hours and no fog later. Cold day conditions would continue to prevail over some parts of Bihar and isolated pockets of east Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and abate thereafter.

"92B" - Will it intensify to Depression and approach Tamilnadu coast ??

Position :: 8.9 N and 86.2 E
Wind :: 45 km/Hr
Pressure :: 1003 mb


JTWC warning
-------------------------------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 87.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
LARGE FORMATIVE BANDING MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO 
THE NORTH DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Latest satellite IR shot, 2:30pm
------------------------------------------------------

Rainrate
-------------------------

COLA Model
----------------------------------------------
COLA maintains a landfall over Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec as a Depression.

IMD GFS
--------------------------------------------
Still predicts a S. Tamilnadu landfall as a weak LOW pressure system on 29-Dec.

 A Merry Christmas and Season's Greetings to all the Vagaries' Readers and Followers ! 

Cold Christmas Morning in NW India !

Leh at -16c, Srinagar at -5c, Churu repeats at -1c on Sunday morning, whilst Delhi dips to a low of 2.9c on Christmas morning ! More later as details pour in .

BB-12 moved ENE, and was stationed at 7.3N and 87E this morning. NE movement may be temporary, and could be due to the unexpected arriaval of a W.D. in the Northern regions. Strength almost constant at 1002 mb and winds at 25 knts. Track could possibly turn to our predicted course, only the W.D. has caused a delay of 24 hrs in the time schedule framed earlier.

Next update at 3 pm IST.

"92B" - Late December Bay low, Will it become a depression?? ... http://ow.ly/89tMA

"92B" - Late December Bay low, Will it become a depression??

Position :: 6.6 N and 84.4 E
Pressure :: 1006 mb


JTWC warning :
------------------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 
87.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING OF CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED 
WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTICULARLY OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN 
OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETRY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS IN BOTH SEMICIRCLES. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE. A WEST WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION 
IS INCREASING THE ROTATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE LLCC EXISTS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION, WHICH IS 
MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. 26 TO 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MEET THE MINIMUM 
REQUIREMENTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLA model prediction
--------------------------------------------------------
Suggests a Depression and hit Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec.

IMD GFS prediction
---------------------------------------------------------
Does not support a Depression formation and supports only a Extreme S. Tamilnadu hit on 28/29-Dec.

chennai - now 4:08pm is having temp. of 26.7 C.. Going to be another COLD night with mild breeze from N-N-E.