A Merry Christmas and Season's Greetings to all the Vagaries' Readers and Followers ! 

Cold Christmas Morning in NW India !

Leh at -16c, Srinagar at -5c, Churu repeats at -1c on Sunday morning, whilst Delhi dips to a low of 2.9c on Christmas morning ! More later as details pour in .

BB-12 moved ENE, and was stationed at 7.3N and 87E this morning. NE movement may be temporary, and could be due to the unexpected arriaval of a W.D. in the Northern regions. Strength almost constant at 1002 mb and winds at 25 knts. Track could possibly turn to our predicted course, only the W.D. has caused a delay of 24 hrs in the time schedule framed earlier.

Next update at 3 pm IST.

"92B" - Late December Bay low, Will it become a depression?? ... http://ow.ly/89tMA

"92B" - Late December Bay low, Will it become a depression??

Position :: 6.6 N and 84.4 E
Pressure :: 1006 mb


JTWC warning :
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 
87.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING OF CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED 
WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTICULARLY OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN 
OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETRY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS IN BOTH SEMICIRCLES. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE. A WEST WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION 
IS INCREASING THE ROTATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE LLCC EXISTS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION, WHICH IS 
MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. 26 TO 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MEET THE MINIMUM 
REQUIREMENTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
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COLA model prediction
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Suggests a Depression and hit Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec.

IMD GFS prediction
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Does not support a Depression formation and supports only a Extreme S. Tamilnadu hit on 28/29-Dec.

chennai - now 4:08pm is having temp. of 26.7 C.. Going to be another COLD night with mild breeze from N-N-E.

COLA model suggests that "92B" will become as Depression and cross Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/oi7q

Even COLA model also suggests NO rain for Tamilnadu coast till 27-Dec... showers will begin from night of 27-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/oi71

IMD GFS also doesn't support rain for chennai till 27-Dec.. !!

Latest IMD GFS doesn't support a Depression formation and it supports a S. Tamilnadu landfall on 28-Dec ... http://ow.ly/i/oi62

3Pm, Circulation over S-S-W Bay "92B" is taking shape ... http://ow.ly/i/oi5y

chennai - temp. touched a low of 21.2 C (6:40am)