Thursday, November 04, 2010

www.deccanchronicle.com :: For Andhra , Cyclone threat recedes for now ??? ... http://ow.ly/349EJ
8am, S. Andhra coast getting some showers.. rest of India is having a mostly clear sky... http://ow.ly/i/5aZp
Chennai - cloudy now 8:57am, with cloud movement from N-E ... sharp showers possible.
RT @sforsenthilc: Chennai - koyambed bus stand . It was raining at guindy and here ...but not a sngl drop @ vadapalani..choosy rain (3:14am)
RT @rpsendhil: It's always beautiful morning with little rain (chennai)
Update on S-E Bay Depression / Low ... Cyclone "JAL" on the making ?? ... http://ow.ly/349qW
on evening of 3-Nov-2010, Low in the Arabian Sea precipitated heavy rains in Goa .. http://ow.ly/349pM
Bay Depression Position:
Location: 8.6N and 91.3E. Movement North-West in 6 hrs.About 1150/1200 kms SE from Chennai.
Core Pressure: 1000 mb. Reduced from 1002 mb
Wind Speeds: 30 Knts. 
Getting organised with swirl bands forming, indicating wall formation. Means, core pressure set to fall.Cirrus clouds in NW have formed with jet stream drag.


Update on S-E Bay Depression / Low ... Cyclone "JAL" on the making ??

Position :: 8.6N , 91.3E
Wind :: 55 KMPH
Pressure :: 1000 mb

JTWC
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FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 94.0E TO 8.8N 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 
95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A 031054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS), THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE 
WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND 
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.



JTWC tracking
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Latest satellite shot
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03NOV 2010 / 1800 Z:-

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A 031054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS), THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

· The wind shear is prominent along 10 Degree North Latitude.

· The pole ward divergence is also getting organized.