Friday, August 13, 2010
More showers for West & S-W coast from 15-Aug and a New N-W Bay low expected around 17-Aug... http://ow.ly/2pazF
Monsoon showers bounty on AP
If drought was the problem for Andhra Pradesh farmers last year, this year, there can be no complaint on that count. But the recent heavy rains that is being witnessed of late is surely a source of worry.
The downpour caused by low-pressure has inundated crops on 44,000 hectares, including 28,000 hectares of cotton. “Officials have reported that flood waters might recede and that there may not be any crop losses,” Mr N Raghuveera Reddy, the Minister for Agriculture, said.
Farmers are also grappling with short supply and scarcity of fertilisers in different parts of the State. But Mr Reddy said the Government had set up a monitoring cell to ensure timely supply. “We estimate that the farmers need 11.2 million tonnes. We have made 12 mt of fertiliser ready,” he said.
Rainfall under the influence of the South-West monsoon has been better than the average rainfall after two years. In the last five weeks since June 6, the average rainfall registered in the State has been 396 mm against the normal of 317 mm, an ‘excess' of 25 per cent.
This is compared with 153 mm in 2009 and 311 mm rain fall the year before. All the major reservoirs in the State hold 609.27 tmc of water as against 507.53 tmc.
‘No Damage'
According to the latest information reaching the Agriculture Ministry, incessant rains across the State in the last few days due to low pressure did not have any adverse impact on crops. “We are hopeful that floods caused by last week rains will recede soon and cause no damage to the standing crops,” a senior official of the Ministry told Business Line.
Farmers in the Godavari delta were forced to stop sowing of paddy temporarily due to incessant rains last week. “Progress of monsoon rains helped accelerate the sowings of paddy, oilseeds and cotton to reach a peak. Maize is at knee-height stage, while groundnut is at vegetative-to-flowering stage and sugarcane is at cane development stage. Early kharif paddy is being taken up in Nellore district. Overall, the status of crops is satisfactory,” the official said.
Cropped area
As a result of abundant rains, the total sown area as on date is 59 lakh hectares (lh) as against the normal (to date) of 56 lh and 39.5 lh in 2009. The State grows crops to an extent of 78.23 lakh ha in a season. “The farmers have covered 75 per cent of the area. We expect that the remaining area will be covered in the next few days,” he said.
Coverage of crops such as cotton, groundnut, redgram, chillies and turmeric have either been normal or higher. Cotton has been sown on 16 lh as against 10.77 lh; groundnut on 12.57 lh (12 lh)' redgram on 5.13 lh (3.45 lh) and chillies on 0.38 lh (0.41 lh).
While paddy has been sown on 8 lh against 10 lh, maize on 4.13 l(4.70 lh) and sugarcane 1.77 lh (2.19 lh) were sown marginally lesser than the as-on-date averages. The officials, however, felt that the gaps would be covered in the next few days.
Unusually Intense Monsoon Rains
The first week of August 2010 brought extreme flooding and landslides to many parts of Asia. By August 11, floods in the Indus River basin had become Pakistan’s worst natural disaster to date, leaving more than 1,600 people dead and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, reported Reuters. Across the border in northeast India, flash floods killed 185 with 400 still missing, reported BBC News. Floods in North Korea and northeast China buried farmland and destroyed homes, factories, railroads, and bridges. And in northwest China, rain triggered a massive landslide that left 702 dead with 1,042 missing, reported China’s state news agency, Xinhua. All of these disasters occurred as a result of unusually heavy monsoon rains, depicted in this image.
Made with data collected by NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the image shows rain rates (the intensity with which rain was falling) between August 1 and August 9, 2010, compared to average rain rates for the same period. Blue reveals areas where rain was much more intense than normal, while brown points to less intense rain.
Dark blue spots cover the regions of Pakistan, India, and China where the floods and landslides occurred. These regions received as much as 24 millimeters of rain per day above normal daily rainfall. A broad swath of very intense rain also covers Indonesia and parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
All of this rain comes as part of the Asian Monsoon. The Asian Monsoon occurs because of the temperature difference between the Eurasian continent and the ocean. In the summer, the land warms much more than the ocean. Heated air over the land rises, and cool, humid air from the ocean moves in to replace it. As the humid air warms over the land, it too rises and the water condenses into rain.
Asia’s summer monsoon varies in intensity from year to year for a variety of reasons. One of the strongest influences on the Asian Monsoon is the El Niño–La Niña oscillation. During La Niña years, the Eastern Pacific is cooler than average, while the western Pacific Ocean (by Asia) is warmer. Air over the ocean is warmer, more buoyant, and more humid. It rises higher and forms more intense storms.
La Niña usually enhances the Asian Monsoon, and it may have been a factor in shaping the intense 2010 monsoon. In July 2010, La Niña conditions had developed. Ocean temperatures in the western Pacific were warmer than normal. The patterns of unusually heavy rain seen in this image are similar to rainfall patterns caused by La Niña.
Additional factors may also have influenced the 2010 monsoon rains. The northern Indian Ocean was also warmer than normal. In particular, waters off the coast of Pakistan (the Arabian Sea) were much warmer than normal in satellite-based sea surface temperature measurements taken in July 2010. These enhanced temperatures are indicative of a shorter-scale weather pattern that also enhances monsoon rains.
Made with data collected by NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the image shows rain rates (the intensity with which rain was falling) between August 1 and August 9, 2010, compared to average rain rates for the same period. Blue reveals areas where rain was much more intense than normal, while brown points to less intense rain.
Dark blue spots cover the regions of Pakistan, India, and China where the floods and landslides occurred. These regions received as much as 24 millimeters of rain per day above normal daily rainfall. A broad swath of very intense rain also covers Indonesia and parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
All of this rain comes as part of the Asian Monsoon. The Asian Monsoon occurs because of the temperature difference between the Eurasian continent and the ocean. In the summer, the land warms much more than the ocean. Heated air over the land rises, and cool, humid air from the ocean moves in to replace it. As the humid air warms over the land, it too rises and the water condenses into rain.
Asia’s summer monsoon varies in intensity from year to year for a variety of reasons. One of the strongest influences on the Asian Monsoon is the El Niño–La Niña oscillation. During La Niña years, the Eastern Pacific is cooler than average, while the western Pacific Ocean (by Asia) is warmer. Air over the ocean is warmer, more buoyant, and more humid. It rises higher and forms more intense storms.
La Niña usually enhances the Asian Monsoon, and it may have been a factor in shaping the intense 2010 monsoon. In July 2010, La Niña conditions had developed. Ocean temperatures in the western Pacific were warmer than normal. The patterns of unusually heavy rain seen in this image are similar to rainfall patterns caused by La Niña.
Additional factors may also have influenced the 2010 monsoon rains. The northern Indian Ocean was also warmer than normal. In particular, waters off the coast of Pakistan (the Arabian Sea) were much warmer than normal in satellite-based sea surface temperature measurements taken in July 2010. These enhanced temperatures are indicative of a shorter-scale weather pattern that also enhances monsoon rains.
Continuing from Wednesday's blog, the axis of the monsoon did slip Northwards , albiet for a few days in the initial days of this week. the result:
A weakened monsoon monsoon with -26 % rainfall during the week ending Wednesday. Now, as anticipated, with the southern peninsula and adjoining east India posting significant deficit.
As expected...the North also did get its heavy rains (read about the Delhi flooding, with Delhi Ridge recording 104 mms in 12 hrs), and Northern
Bihar recieving heavy rains yesterday. Isolated thundershowers kept the central/northern peninsula wet. Map of actual rain on 12th.
And "lo" (pun intented), the axis is dragged down again.
As if a "kill joy", a fresh low appeared, and moved inland to reach Maharashtra's eastern end within a day, by Friday.The low, even though only at 1002 mb. is aptly supported aloft by stronger lows, precipitated good rains in its Eastern Quadrant. Remember, this low has clouding in its Eastern Quadrant.
This low, weakening,is expected to move north initially, and then a short distances north-west before fizzling out. And, simultaneously, the Eastern "block" of clouds ,will move accordingly. But, the movement will be fast, judging by the current speed, by the time you have read this, it must be over Rajasthan !
Rains will be moving out from North Maharashtra into East Gujarat into South Rajasthan.
But a new low is forecast in the bay around the 17th. Like the current low, its
movement/direction seems to be identical. At least seems so from this CMC
forecast.
And the MJO is pushing in a fresh burst of south-westerlies into the west coast from around the 17th. of this month. South-Westerliy winds will bring rain onto the Kerala/Karnataka coast from the 17th. onwards for a couple of days. This rain will move up northwards along the coast, not inland !
Mumbai: Sharp rain showers , between sunny intervals, remind the citizens that the monsoon is not over and done with. In line with the "vagaries" estimate,Wednesday thru Friday, Mumbai had an average of 10-15 mms/day. And as stated above, the current low might just by-pass Mumbai of the heaviest rains.I would just about the Weekend forecast to a little increase in rain, maybe to about 25 -30 mms/day. Rain spells were short during the week, may be a bit longer during the weekend. The intensity may increase Monday onwards.The thunder ? Maybe ?
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