Monsoon Watch - 9

By Friday late night, the depression (erstwhile "Laila") over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved north-northeastwards and weakened into a well-marked low pressure area over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telengana. The rainfall area has now moved into the coastal Orissa region, but much less in intensity.We can see the winds in the 30-40 knts range around the 2 systems.(IMD Wind Map).
With the development of a low level convection over Comorin Area, we can expect the Monsoon to further move Northwards,covering the Comorin area, and the whole of Sri Lanka.With the Westerlies now at 30 knots,we can expect this within the next 2 days. Hence, the Monsoon's Arabian Sea branch will be at the doorstep of peninsula India.

Further 2 days ahead, after the advance into Sri Lanka by today/tomorrow, I think we can get a surety of its advance into Kerala around the 24th./25th. of May.
The only hesitation on my thinking on this is the ITCZ. The wind map shows the ITCZ along the equator stretching from Africa upto the Bay of Bengal.This parameter, the line, should move into the 5N region around the South Arabian Sea to carry the embedded Monsoon current along with it. Normally, I do not have doubts that this will hold up the advance, as In the Bay, the ITCZ is at 5N.

As on today, I pesonally still feel the Monsoon's advance will halt for 4/5 days after reaching upto coastal Karnataka. This may happen, as discussed before, because the thrust we see now is a result of a "rebpond reaction", and may fizzle out temporarily. 



Posted by Rajesh (http://rajesh26.blogspot.com)

@Jag_just_me >>> "Bandu" is already here .. check this out .. http://ow.ly/1OrZL

RT @DisastersAlerts: Green alert: Tropical Storm BANDU affected few people with wind speeds of hurricane strength... http://dlvr.it/17GHz

Chennai - Clear day to start ... "Heat is back ON"

Cyclone "Laila" is no more ... http://ow.ly/1OrXY

Cyclone "Bandu" ... is already here and it's a Rare cyclone in a Rare zone. ... http://ow.ly/1OrX0

Cyclone "Bandu" ... Rare cyclone in a Rare zone.

Its over Western corner of Arabian sea
JTWC warning
-------------------------------

220300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (BANDU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 212338Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DECOUPLED EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP 
CONVECTION, INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
TC 02A IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, 
HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
HAS WEAKENED. TC BANDU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF 
ADEN. INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL 
INFLOW IS HINDERED BY LAND, THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, AND VWS INCREASES. BY TAU 48, TC 02A SHOULD DISSIPATE 
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK DIRECTION, 
HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS THAN THIS 
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z

JTWC projected path
---------------------------------------

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 20 ... May be the Final warning

Cyclone "Laila" is no more..!
This may be the Final warning for this system.


JTWC warning
-------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED 
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST INDIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
REMAINS ELUSIVE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE OR RADAR 
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING 
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE 
AND CONTINUE WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 36, TC 01B COULD REINTENSIFY IF IT 
REFORMS OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

JTWC path
-----------------------------

IMD warning
----------------------------

Sub: The Depression weakened into a well marked low pressure area.

            The depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved further north-northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over north coastal Andhra pradesh and adjoining Telangana at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 21^st May 2010.

            Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 36 hours and Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hours.

            According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal.  on 24^th May 2010. The system is therefore under constant watch.

            This is the last bulletin for this system.

Latest satellite shot
----------------------------------

21st.May was a real HOT day in the desert state of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Notice the abrupt cooling towards the eastern areas.IMD map indicates the extreme heat over the regions.Even in adjoining Pakistan we see a blistering heat wave.

Hottest in Asia: Daddu (Pakistan): 50c
Hottest in India: Idar (Gujarat): 48.5c. The highest ever in Idar. The TOI says its the highest temperature ever recorded in Gujarat State. I have yet to confirm that.
Some HotSpots in these 2 States: 
Gujarat; Ahemdabad: 46.8c, Bhuj:46.0c, Baroda:45.2c,  Rajkot:45.5c.      
Rajasthan:Jaisalmer:47.2c, Ganganagar:46.3c, Bikaner:45.6c,Kota:45.2c
Mahableshwar: Day 29.6c, Night 19.5c
Mumbai: Colaba:35.0c, S'Cruz: 34.4c. 
Mumbai will have partly cloudy skies this weekend, and days and nights will be hot and humid. Westerly breeze may bring some respite, but more humidity alongwith it. Pre Monsoon rains expected in Mumbai around 1st. week of June.


Monsoon Watch - 9.

5:30pm, Showers over Bihar, N-E karnataka and Heavy showers over N-N-E Andhra.. http://ow.ly/i/1G5P