Deficit monsoon but surplus October

Despite a poor monsoon through the season, October - officially considered the post-monsoon month in the city - has already recorded excessive rainfall, nearly two times the month's normal expected amount.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday stated that the average normal expected during October is only 64.9 mm in Colaba and 62.9 mm in Santacruz. This year, however, the month has already received 150.4 mm and 222.3 mm rainfall respectively in the two stations.

"The official monsoon season, from June 1 to September 30, ended with a severe deficit of more than 250 mm. We are now calculating an excess of 122.8 mm and 198.5 mm in Colaba and Santacruz. And the showers have not waned yet. We are expecting a few spells of thundershowers and isolated rainfall in the next few days," said IMD director K Sathidevi.

Such intensive activities are unusual in October. A record of the month's rainfall in the city showed that Colaba experienced such extreme showers only once in the past 10 years - in 2006, when the month's total climbed to 246 mm. In Santacruz, heavy October rains were recoded twice - once in 1999 at 222 mm and again in 2006 at 238.6 mm. MET data show that Santacruz has seen 111.1 mm rainfall in just 24 hours, ending Tuesday morning.

Sathidevi said, "Not just Mumbai, most parts of the state have experienced increased activities over the past week, crossing the deficit line. However, we have officially ended the monsoon month with a deficit; this is now termed as the post-monsoon period." Across the state, heavy rainfall was recorded in Karjat - 25 cm; Matheran, Kalyan, Bhiwandi, and Ulhasnagar - 21 cm each; Ambernath - 19 cm; Panvel, Dharavi - 15 cm each, on Tuesday. Good showers were recorded on the ghats: Lonavala - 30 cm, Walvan - 24 cm, Shirota -12 cm, Wangaon and Dungerwadi - 9 cm each. Lakes like Tulsi received 8 cm, Vihar and Bhatsa - 7 cm each, Tansa - 6 cm, Vaitarna - 5 cm and Upper Vaitarna - 3 cm.

Meanwhile, the relative humidity rose to 95 per cent on Tuesday. The temperatures remained low at 26.7 °C and 27 °C maximum and 23.1 °C and 22.4 °C minimum in Colaba and Santacruz.

Floods in south to jack up cracker cost

Get ready to shell out more for Diwali delight this year. For, firecrackers will be costlier.

With large swathes of Andhra Pradesh being inundated following incessant rain and floods, heavy vehicles carrying consignment of crackers are stuck on their way to Jharkhand and Bihar.

These trucks come from Shivakashi in Tamil Nadu and Kanyakumari. Besides firecrackers, many also ferry perishable items such as eggs, fish, fruits and onions.

According to sources, consignments of firecrackers usually start coming to the steel city as early as August. Till now, about 50 per cent of crackers have already reached the city, but the bulk order is yet to arrive.

"Crackers are transported via road and not by train. But because of the floods, a number of trucks coming via Andhra Pradesh are stuck on the road," a trader said.

Raju Barwalia, a whole-seller, added: "An imbalance in the demand-supply ratio will result if the trucks do not reach Jamshedpur on time. This will definitely lead to a price hike."

The inclement weather only worsens matters. Both traders and revellers are praying for a dry Diwali so that celebrations are not marred.

"Generally, Diwali falls in November, when monsoon is already over. But due to late arrival of rains this year and an early Diwali, it seems that the weather will continue to play spoilsport," said another cracker dealer Prakash Kumar.

The trader expressed fears that retailers may not purchase crackers from them if it rains in Diwali. "We are keeping our fingers crossed. A wet Diwali will severely affect our business," Kumar added.

"Trading in crackers is like gambling. On the one hand, a large consignment of crackers is held up in Andhra Pradesh, triggering fears that prices of firecrackers will go up. On the other hand, the inclement weather threatens to affect our sales. We don't know what to do," rued another trader.

chennai - Bit cloudy today as compared to past 3 days

RT @mariyamubarak: Understatement of the year! RT: @weatherofindia: Chennai - Feels like a very hot day.

Rains trigger landslides in Nepal, 26 killed .. http://ping.fm/vJV42

Chennai - Mild cloud formations over to north-north-east... mild wind from North.

Chennai - Feels like a very hot day.

Chennai - Already touched a high of 36.3°C (11:24am)

Last of monsoon over Eastern India to continue for another 48 hrs .. http://ping.fm/7qpvA

Vigorous monsoon in East slated to continue

The monsoon has been vigorous over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, east Uttar Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh during the last 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.

The causative upper air cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood persisted, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

The rain activity in varying intensity over east and northeast India is slated to continue until October 14 as per forecast update available from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

But scattered shower activity over the northwest (except Rajasthan) is likely to continue during the following week as well (October 15 to 23), the NCEP said. This could be attributed to residual moisture lingering in the region after a busy wet session.

The Bay of Bengal is also shown to be in an `expectant situation' during this week presumably from the continuing churn, though weaker than on earlier occasions, in the west Pacific/South China Sea.

An odd rain pulse is forecast to empty its contents over the southeast coast, but, interestingly, scattered showers are also predicted for the west coast and adjoining south peninsula from westerly flows.

While interacting with Business Line on Wednesday, Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist with the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at the Research Institute for Global Change, Tokyo, mentioned about offices in the metropolis being evacuated in view of approaching Typhoon Melor.

Asked how he could explain the strong typhoon season in the Pacific in the face of an El Nino, he said that he was not sure about El Nino influence on typhoons in the west Pacific.

"Some studies have suggested that El Nino might cause fewer typhoons due to high surface pressure anomaly in the west Pacific. But the number of typhoons does not change year-to-year as much as that in the Atlantic," he said.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the next 24 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States during the next two days.

But weather is likely to remain mainly dry over northwest and adjoining central India during the next five days, the IMD said.

Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed convective clouds over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, north Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Assam.

The three days ending October 12 would see scattered rainfall over the Northeastern States and extreme south peninsular India.

LIGHT IN SOUTH

In the south, isolated rainfall was reported from a few places over coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, an update from the Chennai Met Centre said.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala. Dry weather prevailed over Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers is likely to occur at a few places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema.