Lot's of Huge thunder cells formed over SOuth-west Orissa, North-east Andhra and North-central Tamilnadu and a huge one over Southern end of Western Ghats. These thunder cells formed over western ghats are common this time of year, may be called as pre-monsoon showers.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Forecast for IPL: 21-Apr-09 : Durban
4pm Indian time
Punjab kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders
8pm Indian time
Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians
Weather forecast:
Cloudy with Rain
Temperature: 21 deg max
Rain: 60% chance
Latest rain forecast map
and here the weather RADAR
Going by RADAR pic, now(2 pm India) we can see lots of rain activity around Durban
Monday, April 20, 2009
Forecast for IPL: 20-Apr-09 : Chennai v Bangalore, Port Elizabeth
vs 
IPL weather forecast for Chennai v Bangalore
20-Apr, Port Elizabeth
Forecast: Cloudy with showers; Temp max: 17°c; Rain: 60% chance.
Here is the latest Satellite pic.
And follow the LIVE weather RADAR from Port Elizabeth below...(update every 5 min)
Long Range Forecast For 2009 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall - IMD
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Long Range Forecast
For 2009 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall
1. Background
India Meteorological Department (IMD) follows a two-stage forecast strategy for long range forecasting of the south-west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole. The first long range forecast for the south-west monsoon season (June-September) rainfall is issued in April and the forecast update is issued in June.
During the last two years (2007 & 2008), IMD has been using the following statistical models for forecasting the south-west monsoon rainfall (June - September) for the country as a whole:
a) A 5- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to March, for the first forecast in April.
b) A 6- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to May for the forecast update in June. Three of these 6-parameters are same as that used for April forecast.
The operational forecast issued by IMD for the 2008 seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole was accurate as the first and second stage forecasts were 99% and 100% of Long Period Average (LPA) respectively and the actual rainfall was 98% of LPA.
For preparing the first stage forecast for the 2009 South-west monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole presented here, the same 5-parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system as that used for 2008 has been used.
2. Operational Statistical Forecast System
In the IMD's Ensemble Statistical Forecasting system for April forecast, the following 5 predictors are used. The model error of the April forecasting systems is ±5%.
| S.No | Predictor | Period |
| 1 | North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature | December + January |
| 2 | Equatorial South Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature | February + March |
| 3 | East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure | February + March |
| 4 | NW Europe Land Surface Air Temperature | January |
| 5 | Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume | February + March |
3. Experimental Forecasts
As a part of ongoing efforts to improve the long range forecast capabilities, experimental forecast for the 2009 south-west monsoon rainfall based on IMD's dynamical forecast system was also generated. For this purpose, observed sea surface temperature data of March have been used.
In addition, IMD has taken into account the experimental forecasts prepared by the national institutes like Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL), Bangalore, Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS), Bangalore and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida and operational/experimental forecasts prepared by international institutes like the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, Meteorological Office, UK, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK , the Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC), USA, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO)'s Lead Centre for Long Range Forecasting - Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME).
4. La Nina Conditions over the equatorial Pacific
Following the 2007/08 La Niña event, near neutral ENSO conditions had prevailed in the tropical Pacific from early June to November 2008. However, La Nina conditions returned in early December 2008. From early March, 2009 the SSTs over central and eastern Pacific have weakened and as on now, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing. The latest forecasts from both dynamical and statistical models indicate equal probabilities for weak La Nina and ENSO neutral conditions till May 2009. For the subsequent monsoon season (June to September), majority of the models predict ENSO neutral conditions. It may be mentioned that as the lead time of the forecast increases there is considerable spread and uncertainty in the ENSO forecasts.
5. Forecast for the 2009 South-west monsoon rainfall
IMD's long range forecast for the 2009 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be Near Normal.
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. The Long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm.
IMD will update the above forecast in June 2009 as a part of the second stage forecasts. Separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
The Deadly Cyclones of Bangladesh
Map of northern Bay of Bengal coastline
showing Bangladesh and surrounding nations.
Images from: Significant Severe Cyclones Striking Bangladesh
Tropical Cyclone October 2000 (Courtesy NOAA)
Composite of Cyclone Tracks Crossing
the Bay of Bengal (1970 to 2005)
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Cyclones Tracking Over Bangladesh During the Twentieth Century
Source: Banglapedia
The 1970 Bhola Cyclone
Track for Bhola Cyclone, November 1970
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Image of the Bhola cyclone taken on 11November 1970.
Courtesy US NOAA
The 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone
Color coding of storm strength based upon Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Track of 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, April 1991
Source: Wikimedia Commons
1991 Bangladesh cyclone near peak intensity on April 29 at 0623 UTC.
Courtesy US NOAA / Satellite and Information Service
Flooded villages and fields around a river in Bangladesh
the day after the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone
Courtesy US Air Force Defense Visual Information Center
Photo by Staff Sergeant Val Gempis
Cyclone Sidr
Color coding of storm strength based upon Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Track of Cyclone Sidr, November 2007
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Tropical Cyclone Sidr (06B) in the Bay of Bengal, as seen by the MODIS
instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite on November 14 at 0445 UTC.
Courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC
Map showing affected districts of Bangladesh due to Cyclone Sidr, November 2007.
Courtesy Humanitarian Information Unit, US Department of State
Coastal Damage due to Cyclone Sidr.
Courtesy U.S. Navy, photo taken by
Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Christopher Lange
Cyclone Bijli kills five in Bangladesh
From http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200904191351.htm
Five people were killed as Cyclone Bijli hit Bangladesh's southern region, but there was no serious damage to the ports and other installations.
As the cyclone fizzled out, life began to return to normal in the coastal districts, the Chittagong and Mongla ports and Chittagong airport Friday evening, The Daily Star said on Sunday.
Bijli hit Chittagong-Cox's Bazar coast at around 7.30 p.m. Friday, weakened gradually with rainfall and fizzled out Saturday morning as it entered Rangamati in Chittagong Hill Tracts.
Five people were killed during the cyclone in Cox's Bazar, Chittagong and Noakhali Friday night, while 12 people were injured.
Over 300,000 persons were evacuated during Friday-Saturday, media reports said.
Bangladesh is in the cyclone-prone region and has faced over 80 major cyclones that have been recorded.
The last major cyclone was in November 2007. Cyclone Sidr left over 50,000 dead, destroying crops and damaging ports.
Late summer afternoon "Thunder cells"
Visible satellite pics loop of late summer afternoon thunderstorms over Andhra, Karnataka and Kerala on 19-Apr-09.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
"Bijli" - super satellite shot
"Bijli" near Orissa coast... taken by NASA's Earth Observatory project.
Land ahoy for cyclone "Bijli"
At last cyclone bijli has made landfall over Bangladesh at around "10 PM" India time near "Chittagong sea port".
Here's the final tracking from JTWC (issued just before making landfall) and some news reports.
POSITION NEAR 22.2N 92.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BANGLADESH
AT 18Z, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 1930Z. TC 01B WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND,
ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
BANGLADESH, EASTERN INDIA AND INTO MYANMAR, CAUSING TC 01B TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET
Here's the satellite pic just before impact.
Cyclone Bijli hits Bangladesh coast from Earthtimes.org
Dhaka - Cyclone
Bijli hit the Bangladeshi coast late Friday night, but the tropical storm had weaken slightly before reaching the south eastern shoreline, officials said. A Bangladesh meteorological department statement said that the cyclone - with a wind speed
of 90 kilometres per hour - would take five to six hours to cross the coast.
It was likely to continue gradually weakening, it added.
Several thousand inhabitants of islands in the Bay of Bengal were already evacuated earlier Friday, ahead of the storm.
No initial reports of casualties were reported from the coastal districts, apart from destruction of a few thatched houses and damaged crops in the path of the cyclone.
The government earlier suspended all works at Bangladesh's major Chittagong sea port, and Shah Amanat International Airport
, the second largest airport of the country, as a precaution for the storm.
"We observe the cyclone was getting weaker gradually , and there is nothing to be panicked at this moment," Bangladesh's Food and Disaster Management Affairs Minister Abdur Razzak said after reviewing the situation at a meeting on disaster preparedness.
He added that the maritime ports must maintain the defensive stance adopted earlier to avoid loss of life and property.
Earlier on Friday, the authorities evacuated several thousand residents of islands in the Bay of Bengal as the moderate-intensity cyclone was forecast to hit the Bangladeshi coast early Saturday.
"People from low-lying islands were brought to cyclone shelter centres Friday, and we have prepared to evacuate other costal residents to safer places if required," said MS Akbar, chairman of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society.
More than 12,000 volunteers were engaged in cyclone preparedness work.
Heavy rainfall was recorded Friday in coastal districts, and the low-lying coastal areas of Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, Laxmipur, Bhola, Barisal and Chandpur and their offshore islands were warned to expect water surge of 2 to 3 meters above normal tide.
Fishing boats and trawlers in the northern Bay of Bengal were ordered to take shelter, and the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority suspended river transport service.
Thousands of volunteers have been asking coastal residents to go to safer places, especially to cyclone shelter centres constructed after the devastation of the November 2007 Supercyclone Sidr, which killed more than 4,000 people.
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