"Brown clouds" threaten health in Asian cities

Taken from http://southasia.oneworld.net
Man-made atmospheric brown clouds fed by black carbon and soot are masking Asian cities and causing glacial melting and extreme weather events, says the latest UNEP report. These clouds containing toxic particles and carcinogens risk the health and livelihoods of three billion people, warn scientists.

A three-kilometre-thick “brown cloud” of man-made pollution, which stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China to the western Pacific Ocean, is making Asian cities darker, speeding up the melting of Himalayan glaciers and impacting human health, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report.

Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs), resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass, has resulted in the formation of particles such as black carbon and soot which absorb sunlight and heat the air, experts write in the study released today in Beijing.

The clouds also “mask” the actual warming impact of climate change by anywhere between 20 and 80 per cent because they include sulfates and other chemicals which reflect sunlight and cool the surface.

Shifting weather patterns
The artificial lowering of temperature by ABCs is leading to sharp shifts in weather patterns, causing significant drying in northern China while increasing the risk of flooding in the Asian nation’s south. Monsoon precipitation over India and South-East Asia has dropped up to seven per cent since the 1950s, with the summer monsoon both weakening and shrinking.

Meanwhile, the health and food security of three billion people in Asia are threatened by ABCs, which impacts air quality and agriculture.

Achim Steiner, UNEP’s Executive Director, voiced hope that “Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia” will serve as an early warning of the phenomenon, which he hopes will now be “firmly on the international community’s radar.”

He called on developed countries to help their poorer counterparts attain the technology needed to spur ‘green’ economic growth.

“In doing so, they can not only lift the threat of climate change but also turn off the soot-stream that is feeding the formation of atmospheric brown clouds in many of the world’s regions,” said Steiner.

Livelihoods at stake

The new publication points out 13 megacities as being ABC ‘hotspots’: Bangkok, Beijing, Cairo, Dhaka, Karachi, Kolkata, Lagos, Mumbai, New Delhi, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tehran. Soot levels in these cities comprise 10 per cent of the total mass of all man-made particles.

Since the 1970s, the Chinese city of Guangzhou, among other cities, has witnessed “dimming” – or reduction of sunlight – of more than 20 per cent, it notes.

The solar heating of the atmosphere by ABCs is “suggested to be as important as greenhouse gas warming in accounting for the anomalously large warming trend observed in the elevated regions” such as the Himalayan-Tibetan region, the study says, leading to the retreat of glaciers.

Further, the clouds contain toxic aerosols, carcinogens and other harmful particles, which could result in more people suffering from respiratory disease and cardiovascular problems.

While the effects of the clouds on food production and farmers’ livelihood could be immense, more research must be done to determine their precise role, it acknowledges, adding that the possible impact of ABCs could include elevated levels of ground-level ozone, which could result in massive crop losses of up to 40 per cent in Asia.

Scientists behind the report – produced by UNEP’s Project Atmospheric Brown Cloud – stress that brown clouds also can be found in parts of North America, Europe, Southern Africa and the Amazon Basin, and that they also require urgent and detailed research

"Brown Clouds" Add to Global Warming

Taken from Livescience.com
Pollution-filled "brown clouds" over the Indian Ocean could warm parts of the lower layers of Earth’s atmosphere as much as greenhouse gases do, a new study finds.

Aerosols, or tiny particles suspended in the air, make up clouds of pollution and are thought to have an overall cooling effect on the atmosphere as they scatter incoming light back out to space. Scientists suspect that this cooling effect could mitigate some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.

But some aerosols, particularly soot, are very good at absorbing the sun's rays, and this absorption heats the layer of the atmosphere in which they sit.

How the heating from these aerosols compares to that from greenhouse gases has been largely unknown, but this new study, detailed in the Aug. 2 issue of the journal Nature, found that the warming from the two sources is comparable.

Brown clouds
During the six-month tropical dry season, soot and other aerosols waft over the Indian Ocean from Asia and form plumes of pollution known as "atmospheric brown clouds".

The researchers used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to measure the concentration of the aerosols over the ocean and how much heat they absorbed at different levels of the atmosphere.

The first half of the study period saw little pollution and little atmospheric heating, but during the second half, the brown clouds rolled in and atmospheric heating increased by 50 percent.

Using these results, the researchers modeled the heating effects of brown clouds in the region from 1950 to 2000 and found that it was about the same as that caused by greenhouse gases.

Himalayas and megacities

This study shows that the regional influence of aerosols, not just the global average seen in estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, may be very important, said Peter Pilewskie of the University of Colorado at Boulder, who was not involved with the study.

"And, interestingly, that influence could either enhance (warm, as we've seen in this study) or mitigate (cool) the expected warming by greenhouse gases," Pilewskie said in an email interview.

The overall warming trend caused by greenhouse gases and aerosols in the area have caused the lower atmospheric layer to warm by 0.25 degrees Celsius per decade—twice the rate of warming at the surface, Pilewskie said in an analysis of the study.

This warming has had enormous implications for the Himalayas, where warming has led to a rapid glacier melt.

"The large clouds of pollution in Asia absorb enough solar energy to have climatic impacts," Pilewskie said.

Pilewskie added that other studies are investigating the possible climatic effects of pollution plumes drifting off from megacities (those with 10 million people or more), though he noted that as fewer aerosols are emitted due to the development of cleaner combustion processes, the influence of aerosols is likely to diminish in the future.

Day 1, "mild day" and "dry"

Day 1, of the 1st test match between Ind and Eng.
Thru the day there were some baseless cloud formations (0% threat).
Maximum temperature was around 30 degrees.
Even the humidity also gone down.
Humidity now (9:42PM) is 71% and decreasing.
Going by latest satellite pic and GFS models..
Next 4 days of the match will go on like today.
90% no chance of rain.

Is there any rain around in Tamilnadu?
YES, still there are some scatered showers in South Extreme Tamilnadu.
Papanasam (Tirunelveli dt) recorded a heavy rainfall of 7 centimetres
Devala (Nilgiris dt) 6, Mudukur and Orathandu (both Thanjavur dt), R.S.Mangalam (Ramanathapuram dt), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli dt), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore dt), Chatrapatti (Dindigul dt), Kodaikanal 3 each

And lastly, latest pic shows no sign of "07B" in Arabian sea.

Cricket weather - 1st Test, Ind v Eng at Chennai

Weather forecast for 1st cricket test match between India and England at Chennai, from 11-Dec-08 to 15-Dec-08.

Before going into forecast, take a look at the latest satellite pic from IMD.
Since the remnant of "07B" is moving north in Arabian sea, there's a possibility that the cloud formations in the South-Bay of Bengal (near srilanka) can move inland and cause some scaterred showers over Tamilnadu.
And recent 5 day COLA GFS models suggests that there'll be showers for Tamilnadu coast after 13-Dec-08.
Forecast for the match days:
Partly cloudly with sunshine thru all days of the match.
Since the North-east current is strong, there are 60% chance of mild/sharp showers in early mornings, before the start of play. And 50% chance of showers in late evening also, that too after the match time is over.
So RAIN will not affect the course of play during the first 3 days.
Last 2 days of the match might be affected by some heavy sharp showers, that too a 70% possibility.
We'll keep tracking the weather conditions of the match.

Any life left in "07B" ??

Here is the latest from JTWC.
**************************************
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 78.5E, IS NOW NEAR 6.7N 74.7E APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAS TRACKED GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
091439Z SSMI PASS SHOW CONVECTION AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REDUCED IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AND
BROKEN UP INTO FRAGMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA
OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN ARABIAN
SEA IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO A WEAK LLCC AND
INFLUX OF DRY COOL AIR INTO 07B, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
*************************************
Going by latest satellite pic, "07B" has huge cloud mass and it has moved North further into Arabian sea. No worries for India as of now.

Cyclone scare looms over Chennai test..!!!!!

"Cyclone scare looms over Chennai test " - Mytoday SMS on my mobile.
This is the SMS message i got from "Mytoday".
I don't know which Cyclone are they dealing with.
We can assure all Cricket fans that the MATCH(1st test, Ind v Eng) will not get disturbed by rain. There may be a Shower or two for the first day of the match(11-Dec-08).
Look at the latest satellite pic,

Nothing significant for Chennai and rest of Tamilnadu.
Kanyakumari district is getting heavy showers from morning today. Other showers are scattered thru rest of Tamilnadu.
Here is some rainfall data recorded till 8:30AM today (IMD)
Puducherry Airport and Tiruvarur 9 each, Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt), Nagapattinam and Aravakurichi (Karur dt) 8 each and Parangipettai, Kodavasal and Valangaiman (both Tiruvarur dt) and Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram dt) 7 each
Chennai:
From Morning we were getting drizzles and some mild showers.
Even these showers will die down from tomorrow morning.
No near threat from Bay for us...
We think that's the END of this North-east season.
What happened to 07B..??
GFS suggests that the 07B over south-arabian sea will form into a rare Winter-Arabian Sea-Depression. No predictions on it's movement yet. Probably north-west.

"07B" - Brushing the Southern Tip

Yesterday(7-Dec-08) early morning 07B was over srilanka.
Around afternoon it crossed into Gulf of Mannar.
Now (8-Dec-08, 11:21 AM) it's over southern tip of India/Tamilnadu.
"07B" is just a LOW pressure system, with lots of RAIN potential.
The whole of southern districts are getting heavy rains and drizzles.
We are hearing news from Kanyakumari district that from yesterday evening it was drizlling heavy went on thru the night and now it's pouring intermittently.
Going by latest satellite pic u can make the position of "07B".

This rainfall in that region will go on till tomorrow morning.
After that the "07B" will cross into Arabian sea. We'll monitor what happens next.
Here is some rainfall details recorded (by IMD) at 8:30AM, 7-Dec-08
Rameswaram 5, Pamban 3, Ramanathapuram 2 and Vedaranyam and Tondi 1
Chennai:
Here we had a mild night with some low clouds.
Morning there was NO dew around.
Now(11:27AM) we can see lot's of partly-heavy cloud formation.
It seems the North-easter has rejunuvated.
We have 50% chance of getting mild shower or two in late evening.
IS THERE ANY OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN "BAY" ??

"07B" - Dissipating

At last COLA GFS model has proved right, not the BBC forecast system.
Latest satellite pic shows that "07B" is dissipating fast over northern Srilanka.
"07B" before making landfall over Srilanka was just a LOW pressure system.
Cloud cover can be seen over Northern Gulf of Mannar, Northern Srilanka and South-south-Tamilnadu.

Latest 48 hrs numeric model shows more rains for Gulf of Mannar coast.

Already showers has started along Kanyakumari, Tiruchendur, Tuticorin, Rameswaram and in some parts north to Rameswaram Coast.
This might continue for another 48 hrs.
Chennai:
We are not going to get any rain from this system. Almost 5% chance.
From today evening, night temperatures will go down. And Dry.

FNMOC GFS and BBC forecast

FNMOC GFS and BBC forecast is forecasting the same landfall area.

"07B" - Is it alive??

BBC rain forecast is still suggesting a landfall very near to south of Chennai by tomorrow.
Before going in-depth abt the system. Take a look at the latest satellite pic.

Going by visual, one can see a small core and nothing much. Lots of signs of weakening.
Still it's a well marked low pressure system.
JTWC - is still tracking the system and suggesting a landfall near north of Pamban coast.

*************************************
060300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 052355Z SSMIS MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE SHOW REENERGIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF A WELL-
DEFINED ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH HAS BEGUN TO BUILD WESTWARD AND IS CAUSING TC 07B TO TRACK ON
A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ALLOW 07B TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTH-
ERN INDIA BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z
*************************************
Chennai:
Woke up to a mild morning will some useless low clouds moving in from North-east.
Till evening today(6-Dec-08) no rain is forecasted.
If "07B" maintains it's path and intensifies then we'll start receiving mild showers or drizzles from late evening.
There's only "50%" chance of Intensifying further and making a landfall.