MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation

A good insight into MJO - by Ahmed, http://kea.metsite.com
For more on MJO click here
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Forecasts based on the movement of the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of alternating enhanced and suppressed phases of rainfall suggest that the ongoing wet session over the southern peninsula would weaken towards the month-end. This is based on the assessment that the current phase of the MJO wave, travelling periodically from West Africa into Indian Ocean and further east into the equatorial Pacific and beyond, would be followed up by the suppressed phase from November 1.

This weakened rain phase would last until November 22, according to the ensemble forecast system of the US National Weather Services. The successor MJO phase of enhanced rains is expected to get anchored over equatorial Indian Ocean and the southern Indian peninsula from December 2.

A long-term outlook by the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggested ‘above normal’ rain for southern peninsula through December, January and even early into February.

"I think this happenned last year too. We had a good rain in October, then Nov was very dry and again rains picked up in December"
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Heavy rain and a Break !

For yesterday (22-Oct-08) morning till 10:30 AM it was raining heavy, some times very heavy.
T.Nagar and other parts are partly flooded.
At around 10:40 sun came out bright and it had signs of clearing.
But after 11:30 AM the sky became gloomy and heavy, then it started drizzling heavy and it stopped at around 4:30 PM.
After that drizzle the low level air current changed direction to North-West.
Please note: Once the air-current changes to North-west all the rain activity will reduce to ZERO.

Now (23-Oct-08, 2:15 PM), till now the wind is in North-West-North.
So no sign of Rain yet...!
Look at the latest satellite pic...

we can see two formations, one near "Kerala" and another near "Andhra".
And another likelyhood is VERY near to North-Tamilnadu.
Overall, there was heavy rains thru out Tamilnadu.

Some of my Tweets (travel from chennai-pune-chennai)

I'm back in Chennai. oh man, it's raining heavy thru all early morning till now. "chandrayaan" launch successful, lot's of stages ahead. 2 minutes ago from web

moving out of arakonam, lot's of rain thru out. my battery is out. bye bye about 13 hours ago from mobile web

at guntakal, andhra. cloud cover is getting heavy. still no rain sighting yet. hope to get rain in 2 hrs. about 20 hours ago from mobile web

now at raichur, andhra. clear & warm. no sign of rain yet. about 22 hours ago from mobile web

got info from chennai that it was raining heavy thru the night. 7:39 AM yesterday from mobile web

i'm returning to chennai. now in wadi. here clear sky, mild and hazy. 7:38 AM yesterday from mobile web

cold evening in Pune, i'll be leaving pune around midnight by train. 12:14 AM yesterday from mobile web

entering pune. dry & mild & sunny. 9:16 AM Oct 20th from mobile web

good & cold morning in maharastra. dry & cold all the way! it's rainiing in chennai. 9:05 AM Oct 20th from mobile web

at last we have mobile signal. v r near gooty, andhra. clear & dry. 8:06 PM Oct 19th from mobile web

almost no mobile signal. airtel. this is the state indian mobile connectivity 5:49 PM Oct 19th from mobile web

just had lunch. and leaving renigunta. heavy rains after tirutani till renigunda. 5:46 PM Oct 19th from mobile web

just had lunch. and leaving renigunta. heavy rains after tirutani till now. 3:04 PM Oct 19th from mobile web

as we go further into interior, rain & cloud activity is low. 2:51 PM Oct 19th from mobile web

now on my way to mumbai, i might tweet abt the weather on the way! 11:36 AM Oct 19th from mobile web

night was heavy with rain & lightning. i'm tweetin from my htc mobile. 11:34 AM Oct 19th from mobile web

Heavy rain to continue!

We are back after 3 days.
Lot's of heavy rain thru last 3 days.
A low pressure trough near Chennai and south Andhra has caused so much rain so far.
Even lot's of Schools in Tamilnadu were closed yesterday (22-Oct-08).

Here is the latest satellite pic...

It shows more cloud activity over north of Chennai and south Andhra.
And it seems that rain activity might decrease and give a break.
OR
Sometimes after afternoon today (22-Oct-08) The cloud build up over the Bay near North-Tamilnadu might increase.

Chennai weather updates

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Slow Rain rate!

Now it's official, IMD has declared that North-east monsoon has set in.
After some 3 days of good sharp showers, today it's partly cloudy and sunny at times.
The Rain rate has slowed down after yeasterday (15-Oct-08) night.
The night of 16-Oct-08 received some small showers.

But as i write now (17-Oct-08, 2:36 PM) a huge cloud formation is seen on the east-north-east over the sea.
Here is the latest satellite pic...

some activity can be seen over the south-east Bay.
Soon we will see more and more cloud formations, lowa and Circulations.
Anyway it's a good start to the Monsoon.

To support my view on "North-east monsoon"

To support my view on "North-east monsoon" here is a blog from Accuweather.com


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Monday's satellite imagery of the Indian Ocean region has shown what may be the least cloudy Subcontinent sky since spring or late winter. And cloudiness, such as it is, was over the south, where there have been a few downpours (mostly Tamil Nadu and Kerala).

Withdrawal of the South West Monsoon together with the return of the is the herald the Northeast Monsoon in October, which is what is being seen at this time. In truth, there are not any well-marked northeasterly winds at this time, but rains have begun in the southern east coast. At Chennai, rainfall since late Friday has been 3.1 inches/7.9 cm.

Looking forward over the coming five to seven days one can see the onset of a weak north-south pressure gradient over peninsular India. Coincident with this is the likelihood for further rain over southern India, most notably over Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. In the north, the Westerlies will hold sway with mostly dry weather in answer. A "Western Disturbance"--really a short-wave trough within the Westerlies--will dip into the northern Subcontinent triggering a few thunderstorms mostly along the western Himalaya.

While still in the area of the Indian Ocean, I will make mention of something that could happen late this week. This something would be a tropical depression (even a cyclone) along 10 degrees North latitude west of southern India. As of Monday it is way too early for me to commit to this idea, one way or another. Whatever does happen would most likely drift westward, if Monday's numerical forecasts are true.
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NE - Started...

The north-east monsoon has started.
The first shower was on 11-Oct-08, at around 7 PM.
The starting rains were bit sluggish and gradually it became vigorous.
There were intermittent sharp showers throughout Sunday, 12-Oct-08.
Some showers were really heavy...
Now (13-Oct-08, Morning) also it's raining intermittently.

Not like last year, the start is really good.
Signs of 2005 north-easter.
Remember: The very same day the monsoon started during 2005.
We'll keep updating the site throughout this North-east.
And watching keenly for the all awaited cyclones..

From Accuweather

It is, in the subcontinent, the time of transition between SW and NE Monsoons. Surface pressure gradient has gone slack and the Westerlies are making inroads over the north. Monday, hit-or-miss thunderstorms have spread over the southeastern one-half to two-thirds of the subcontinent. There have lately been thunderstorms in and about Mumbai -- another marker of this season of transition.
Looking forward another 5-7 days, I see more of the same: weak surface pressure gradient, variable winds, Westerlies dominating over the north and persistence of an incremental withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. Oh, and no hint of any tropical cyclone.

Signs of North-East

Today we had GOOD signs of North-east monsoon setting in...!
There were lot's of signs for typical early morning North-east showers.
In some places (North of chennai) there were in fact some drizzles and some showers.

Here is one GFS from weatherzone.com

The GFS predicts RAIN and HEAVY after 13-Oct-2008
A Depression may be forming just NORTH of srilanka and it might move inland during early next week.
Here is a prediction from Numeric forecast

sadly the numeric forecast shows nothing for next 48 hrs
Take a look at the latest satellite pic.

and even satellite pic also suggests nothing.
I can assure all that the north-easter current has started and it'll bring showers soon.