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Friday, October 17, 2008
Slow Rain rate!
Now it's official, IMD has declared that North-east monsoon has set in.
After some 3 days of good sharp showers, today it's partly cloudy and sunny at times.
The Rain rate has slowed down after yeasterday (15-Oct-08) night.
The night of 16-Oct-08 received some small showers.
But as i write now (17-Oct-08, 2:36 PM) a huge cloud formation is seen on the east-north-east over the sea.
Here is the latest satellite pic...
some activity can be seen over the south-east Bay.
Soon we will see more and more cloud formations, lowa and Circulations.
Anyway it's a good start to the Monsoon.
After some 3 days of good sharp showers, today it's partly cloudy and sunny at times.
The Rain rate has slowed down after yeasterday (15-Oct-08) night.
The night of 16-Oct-08 received some small showers.
But as i write now (17-Oct-08, 2:36 PM) a huge cloud formation is seen on the east-north-east over the sea.
Here is the latest satellite pic...
some activity can be seen over the south-east Bay.
Soon we will see more and more cloud formations, lowa and Circulations.
Anyway it's a good start to the Monsoon.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
To support my view on "North-east monsoon"
To support my view on "North-east monsoon" here is a blog from Accuweather.com
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Monday's satellite imagery of the Indian Ocean region has shown what may be the least cloudy Subcontinent sky since spring or late winter. And cloudiness, such as it is, was over the south, where there have been a few downpours (mostly Tamil Nadu and Kerala).
Withdrawal of the South West Monsoon together with the return of the is the herald the Northeast Monsoon in October, which is what is being seen at this time. In truth, there are not any well-marked northeasterly winds at this time, but rains have begun in the southern east coast. At Chennai, rainfall since late Friday has been 3.1 inches/7.9 cm.
Looking forward over the coming five to seven days one can see the onset of a weak north-south pressure gradient over peninsular India. Coincident with this is the likelihood for further rain over southern India, most notably over Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. In the north, the Westerlies will hold sway with mostly dry weather in answer. A "Western Disturbance"--really a short-wave trough within the Westerlies--will dip into the northern Subcontinent triggering a few thunderstorms mostly along the western Himalaya.
While still in the area of the Indian Ocean, I will make mention of something that could happen late this week. This something would be a tropical depression (even a cyclone) along 10 degrees North latitude west of southern India. As of Monday it is way too early for me to commit to this idea, one way or another. Whatever does happen would most likely drift westward, if Monday's numerical forecasts are true.
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Monday's satellite imagery of the Indian Ocean region has shown what may be the least cloudy Subcontinent sky since spring or late winter. And cloudiness, such as it is, was over the south, where there have been a few downpours (mostly Tamil Nadu and Kerala).
Withdrawal of the South West Monsoon together with the return of the is the herald the Northeast Monsoon in October, which is what is being seen at this time. In truth, there are not any well-marked northeasterly winds at this time, but rains have begun in the southern east coast. At Chennai, rainfall since late Friday has been 3.1 inches/7.9 cm.
Looking forward over the coming five to seven days one can see the onset of a weak north-south pressure gradient over peninsular India. Coincident with this is the likelihood for further rain over southern India, most notably over Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. In the north, the Westerlies will hold sway with mostly dry weather in answer. A "Western Disturbance"--really a short-wave trough within the Westerlies--will dip into the northern Subcontinent triggering a few thunderstorms mostly along the western Himalaya.
While still in the area of the Indian Ocean, I will make mention of something that could happen late this week. This something would be a tropical depression (even a cyclone) along 10 degrees North latitude west of southern India. As of Monday it is way too early for me to commit to this idea, one way or another. Whatever does happen would most likely drift westward, if Monday's numerical forecasts are true.
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Monday, October 13, 2008
NE - Started...
The north-east monsoon has started.
The first shower was on 11-Oct-08, at around 7 PM.
The starting rains were bit sluggish and gradually it became vigorous.
There were intermittent sharp showers throughout Sunday, 12-Oct-08.
Some showers were really heavy...
Now (13-Oct-08, Morning) also it's raining intermittently.
Not like last year, the start is really good.
Signs of 2005 north-easter.
Remember: The very same day the monsoon started during 2005.
We'll keep updating the site throughout this North-east.
And watching keenly for the all awaited cyclones..
The first shower was on 11-Oct-08, at around 7 PM.
The starting rains were bit sluggish and gradually it became vigorous.
There were intermittent sharp showers throughout Sunday, 12-Oct-08.
Some showers were really heavy...
Now (13-Oct-08, Morning) also it's raining intermittently.
Not like last year, the start is really good.
Signs of 2005 north-easter.
Remember: The very same day the monsoon started during 2005.
We'll keep updating the site throughout this North-east.
And watching keenly for the all awaited cyclones..
Saturday, October 11, 2008
From Accuweather
It is, in the subcontinent, the time of transition between SW and NE Monsoons. Surface pressure gradient has gone slack and the Westerlies are making inroads over the north. Monday, hit-or-miss thunderstorms have spread over the southeastern one-half to two-thirds of the subcontinent. There have lately been thunderstorms in and about Mumbai -- another marker of this season of transition.
Looking forward another 5-7 days, I see more of the same: weak surface pressure gradient, variable winds, Westerlies dominating over the north and persistence of an incremental withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. Oh, and no hint of any tropical cyclone.
Looking forward another 5-7 days, I see more of the same: weak surface pressure gradient, variable winds, Westerlies dominating over the north and persistence of an incremental withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. Oh, and no hint of any tropical cyclone.
Signs of North-East
Today we had GOOD signs of North-east monsoon setting in...!
There were lot's of signs for typical early morning North-east showers.
In some places (North of chennai) there were in fact some drizzles and some showers.
Here is one GFS from weatherzone.com
The GFS predicts RAIN and HEAVY after 13-Oct-2008
A Depression may be forming just NORTH of srilanka and it might move inland during early next week.
Here is a prediction from Numeric forecast
sadly the numeric forecast shows nothing for next 48 hrs
Take a look at the latest satellite pic.
and even satellite pic also suggests nothing.
I can assure all that the north-easter current has started and it'll bring showers soon.
There were lot's of signs for typical early morning North-east showers.
In some places (North of chennai) there were in fact some drizzles and some showers.
Here is one GFS from weatherzone.com
The GFS predicts RAIN and HEAVY after 13-Oct-2008
A Depression may be forming just NORTH of srilanka and it might move inland during early next week.
Here is a prediction from Numeric forecast
sadly the numeric forecast shows nothing for next 48 hrs
Take a look at the latest satellite pic.
and even satellite pic also suggests nothing.
I can assure all that the north-easter current has started and it'll bring showers soon.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
At the end of SW monsoon - 08
We (Chennai) is at the end of SW monsoon.
Now it's clear skies with patchy clouds around and humid days and mild nights.
Still there is low level SW air current. And no sign of North-easter yet.
Hoping to see the North-East monsoon around 10th to 15th of October.
Usually north-east sets in around 15th in North tamilnadu and around 22nd in south tamilnadu.
This year's north-east will also be a long one, like that of Last year - 2007.
Our next post will be a summary of South-west - 2008.
Now it's clear skies with patchy clouds around and humid days and mild nights.
Still there is low level SW air current. And no sign of North-easter yet.
Hoping to see the North-East monsoon around 10th to 15th of October.
Usually north-east sets in around 15th in North tamilnadu and around 22nd in south tamilnadu.
This year's north-east will also be a long one, like that of Last year - 2007.
Our next post will be a summary of South-west - 2008.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Some Rain facts for september (Chennai)
Monthly average = 109 mm
High temp = 38.9 C (19.09.1883)
Low temp = 20.6 C (15.09.1884)
Rain single day = 150.9 mm (30.09.1984)
Total rain = 279.7 mm (1897)
High temp = 38.9 C (19.09.1883)
Low temp = 20.6 C (15.09.1884)
Rain single day = 150.9 mm (30.09.1984)
Total rain = 279.7 mm (1897)
Almost at the end of SW monsoon
Now that the SW-monsoon air current has almost stopped.
Chennai has began to suffer from high humidity and sultry afternoons.
Some days we will have Electric showers if late afternoons or evenings.
For another 10 days the weather will be like this after that we can see the signs of Northeast monsoon.
I'm expecting a MORE than NORMAL north-east monsoon.
It might start at around 10-Oct-2008.
We have had good rains in all non-seasonal months (June to September).
September average rainfall is 109 mm and now it has recorded 121.00 mm
Chennai has began to suffer from high humidity and sultry afternoons.
Some days we will have Electric showers if late afternoons or evenings.
For another 10 days the weather will be like this after that we can see the signs of Northeast monsoon.
I'm expecting a MORE than NORMAL north-east monsoon.
It might start at around 10-Oct-2008.
We have had good rains in all non-seasonal months (June to September).
September average rainfall is 109 mm and now it has recorded 121.00 mm
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